SimTransCo2 A freight transportation simulation model - An emission permit policy analysis tool Michel Karsky (KBS)Patrice Salini (Inrets) Palermo 2002

2 SimTransCo2 To model To apply To convince

3 To model SimTrans (developed in ) : –An attempt to analyze the dynamics of the freight transportation market in France (Road, Rail,Inland waterways) Funded as a Research Program

4 To apply SimTrans Co2 ( ) : Explore the consequences of the Kyoto protocol and the implementation of an emission credit trade system Commissioned by ADEME (National Environmental Agency)

5 To convince Use of a posteriori causal loop diagrams for long term analyses

6 To model SimTrans is focused on land transportation and modal split 3 sectors : –Road –Rail –Inland Waterways

7 To model A Modal supply is a combination of : –Means (Capacity) –Productivity –Quality

8 To model –Means (Capacity) –Productivity –Quality

9 To model Modal split as a result of competition between different attractiveness Attractiveness as a result of means, productivity and quality levels

10 To model Agricultural Products

11 To apply + SimTrans + an analysis of the effect of the Kyoto protocol

12 To apply The Kyoto protocol aims at reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming. In EU, the transportation sector is to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2 CO2 emissions from transportation are expected to increase by around 50% by 2010

13 Source : GRID-Arendal in co-operation with the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the 7th Conference of the Parties (COP-7) to the Convention, held in Marrakesh, Morocco 29th October to 9th November 2001.

14 To apply SimTrans Co2 explores a C0 2 emission reduction trade system for trucks (inside the EU “Bubble”)

15 To apply

16 To apply Emission trading has no impact

17 To apply

18 To convince Feedback loop analysis

19 To convince Feedback loop analysis

20 To convince Feedback loop analysis

21 Feedback loop analysis To convince

22 To convince Feedback loop analysis

23 SimTransCO2 Michel Karsky : Patrice Salini :