1. Global Warming - 2 The difficult issues PowerPoint 97 PowerPoint 97 To download: Shift LeftClick Please respect copyright on this material

2. Reaction Topic F If you were President of the United States, with responsibility for doing something about global warming, what would you do.

3. Key Points F Science provides some guidance but little detail F People react to uncertain future in different ways F Action to control greenhouse gas emissions controversial because far reaching and expensive F Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiation – mild emissions reductions for developed countries applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of world – rest of world watching before negotiating

4. Notes on Science Assessment F Current consensus on attribution of global warming to human activities – Balance of Probabilities (Likely) F Regional predictions much less secure that global average F Precipitation predictions much less secure that temperature F Impacts on ecosystem, agriculture,etc implied only in general terms

5. Comparative Policy Factors -1 F Carbon Dioxide – greatest man-made effect – reversible response time > 50 yrs F Methane – per Carbon atom 30 times CO 2 – much less in atmosphere – reversible response time 12 years F Nitrous Oxide – apparently uncontrollable sources – reversible response time >100 yrs

6. Comparative Policy Factors - 2 F CFCs – emissions already controlled – Net radiative forcing small – reversible response time 50 yrs F Sulfur emissions – controlled in some countries – negative greenhouse effect, regional – magnitude poorly known – response immediate

7. Key Points F Science provides some guidance but little detail F People react to uncertain future in different ways F Action to control greenhouse gas emissions controversial because far reaching and expensive F Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiation – mild emissions reductions for developed countries applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of world – rest of world watching before negotiating

8. Perspectives on Policy Bretherton, F.PBretherton, F.P : 1994, Ambio, 23, 96-97

9. Key Points F Science provides some guidance but little detail F People react to uncertain future in different ways F Action to control greenhouse gas emissions controversial because far reaching and expensive F Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiation – mild emissions reductions for developed countries applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of world – rest of world watching before negotiating

10. Possible Actions F Reduce CO 2, Methane emissions – Raise price carbon fuels – Encourage efficiency, alternatives – Focus on “no regrets” actions F Wait and see what happens – Risk worse consequences – Rest of the world will not act without U.S. participation

11. Key Points F Science provides some guidance but little detail F People react to uncertain future in different ways F Action to control greenhouse gas emissions controversial because far reaching and expensive F Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiation – mild emissions reductions for developed countries applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of world – rest of world watching before negotiating

12. Framework Convention on Climate Change http://www.unfccc.de http://www.unfccc.de F An agreement in principle among governments and a process for further negotiation F Signed: Rio de Janeiro 1992 F “Conference of the Parties-3”: Kyoto, 1997 F COP-4: Buenos Aires, Nov 1998 F COP-6: The Hague, Nov 2000, Jun 2001 F United Nations Secretariat

13. Kyoto Protocol -1997 F Commitments by developed countries only F Greenhouse gas emissions only F Offsets deferred for further study F U.S. commitment for 2008-2012 – less than 93% of 1990 F Full text Full text Full text

14. Kyoto Protocol-1 The Parties to this Protocol, Being Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, hereinafter referred to as "the Convention", In pursuit of the ultimate objective of the Convention as stated in its Article 2, Recalling the provisions of the Convention, Being guided by Article 3 of the Convention, Pursuant to the Berlin Mandate adopted by decision 1/CP.1 of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention at its first session, Have agreed as follows: Full TextFull Text

15. Big Issues in International Negotiations F Who pays? – Initially developed countries only F How to define compliance? – Fossil fuel can be monitored – Offsets from reforestation hard to measure F Developing countries other priorities – Small users now BUT – Rest of world emissions expected to pass developed countries around 2025 F Minimizing impact on economic activity – Joint implementation

16. U.N. Framework Convention for Climate Change F What’s New http://www.unfccc.de/wnew

17. U.S. National Activity  U.S. Global Change Research Program (1990 - )  Kyoto Protocol requires ratification by senate  Climate Change Action Plan Plan – “http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/ actions/national/ccap/ccap.html” http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/ actions/national/ccap/ccap.htmlhttp://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/ actions/national/ccap/ccap.html – Kyoto targets not being met so far

18. Is the U.S. Meeting its Kyoto Commitments? F Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency 2008-2013 Kyoto Protocol Annex 1 1,516

19. U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases F Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency

20. Key Points F Science provides some guidance but little detail F People react to uncertain future in different ways F Action to control greenhouse gas emissions controversial because far reaching and expensive F Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiation – mild emissions reductions for developed countries applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of world – rest of world watching before negotiating

21. The Third Planet from the Sun

22. Sources of Information F Brown, … Chapter 8 F U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change - http:\\www.unfccc.de http:\\www.unfccc.de F U.S. Environmental Protection Agency