Tools for Climate Policy Planning Charles Heaps, Ph.D. Stockholm Environment Institute SEI-U.S. Center 11 Curtis Avenue, Somerville MA, 02144, USA and 11/20/2007

Part 1: Some new challenges for energy policy makers, planners and analysts. Part 2: Some SEI initiatives that can help to begin to address these challenges: – LEAP: a tool for energy policy and climate mitigation analysis. – WEAP: a tool for water resource planning and assessing climate adaptation responses at the river basin scale. – COMMEND: an online community to help build capacity among developing country energy planners. – A new initiative to develop southern-lead climate mitigation assessments.

Issue 1: Mitigation will be vital in the developing world. While mitigation must be lead by the North, significant mitigation must also happen in the South (irrespective of who pays for it). According to the WEO Reference scenarios, in the next 30 years, ¾ of growth in global primary energy needs will be in the developing world. But data and institutional capacity are in short supply and uncertainties over future development pathways are large, making planning and analysis difficult.

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 Per Capita Energy Related CO2 Emissions and Population in the WEO Reference Scenario

Issue 2: Mitigation will need to address lifestyle questions. Climate mitigation will require addressing lifestyle questions in addition to using new technologies. New approaches to setting energy policy will be required: technocratic approaches will not be sufficient. Wider stakeholder involvement is needed: a democratization of energy policy making. Models can help inform us about the costs and potential of alternatives, but cannot tell us the right balance between investing in new technologies and making lifestyle choices: these are inherently normative questions.

Traditional Approaches Necessary but not Sufficient Lack of data and institutional capacity makes use of complex models difficult. Price-based models are hard to apply in the long-run, especially in developing countries due to huge uncertainties (development pathways, energy prices, policy responses to climate and energy security concerns) and lack of time-series data. End-use/engineering based models may be more appropriate for examining long-term trends and for putting development and lifestyle issues at the forefront of energy planning. Least-cost optimal planning may not be a rational approach for developing countries where there are large downside risks due to uncertainty. Robust planning is a better paradigm: implying the need for scenario and sensitivity analysis.

Implications for Planning New approaches are needed that: – Address both development and climate mitigation in energy planning, e.g. using an IPAT approach (Impact = Population x Activity x Technology) – Are transparent and encourage participation from a broader set of stakeholders. – Take a long-range scenarios-based perspective that describes in physical terms how societies can be transformed to meet the challenges.

Part 2 Four SEI initiatives that are beginning to address these challenges: – LEAP: a software tool for energy policy and climate mitigation analysis. – WEAP: a software tool for integrated freshwater resource planning and climate adaptation. – COMMEND: an online community to help build capacity among developing country energy planners. – A new initiative to develop southern-lead climate mitigation assessments.

Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System Windows-based integrated energy-environment, scenario-based modeling system, developed by SEI. IPAT approach: encourages a needs-based/development perspective within energy planning. Easy-to-use but powerful enough to meet the needs of planners. Transparent: based on relatively simple energy and emissions accounting approaches: so useful tool for capacity building. Widely applied in > 100 countries. De facto standard for developing country parties conducing mitigation assessments for the UNFCCC. Scope: demand, supply, resources, environmental loadings (emissions), cost-benefit analysis, non-energy sector emissions. Works well with other models: e.g. through links to spreadsheets. Time-Frame: medium to long-term, annual time-step, unlimited number of years. Low initial data requirements. Many aspects optional. Local, national &regional applicability. Available at no charge to developing country organizations. Download from:

Structure

A six year initiative to build capacity and foster a community among analysts working on climate mitigation, energy and sustainability issues. Managed by SEI in partnership with regional partners in Africa, Europe and Latin America. Funded by Govt. of Netherlands. Open to all at no charge. Activities: – Annual regional training workshops in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. – Online library – Software comparisons – Development, maintenance and technical support for LEAP. – Semi-annual newsletter (reCOMMEND) > 3000 members in > 160 countries.

Scenarios Initiative SEI is leading a new initiative to develop climate mitigation scenarios. Scenarios will be developed in LEAP at the national level by members of the COMMEND community with support from SEI. Chance for southern analysts to start setting out their own visions for how to meet the climate challenge. Non-governmental initiative. Initially intended only to prompt and inform dialogue. Major co-benefit: SEI is developing public-domain national baseline data sets with historical and baseline projections of energy and GHG emissions. These data sets will be available for free to LEAP users as a useful starting point for national GHG mitigation assessments. First data sets available in 2nd quarter 2008 (available via COMMEND web site).

For more information: and

An international, independent not-for-profit research organization working on the issue of sustainable development, and bringing best available science to policy makers. Headquarters in Stockholm with centers in the US, UK, Estonia, and Thailand. Interdisciplinary approach drawing upon engineering, economics, ecology, management science, international affairs, software design, etc. About 150 staff: 17 in the U.S. Funders include SIDA (Sweden), DGIS (the Netherlands), U.S. EPA, US-AID and US-DOE as well as UNDP, UNEP, the World Bank, foundations and national governments. U.S. Center is affiliated with Tufts University. Web:

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007

Source: IPCC WG3 Potential of Sectors to Contribute in 2030 (Technical Options Only)

Selected LEAP Applications Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Studies: 85 countries have selected LEAP for use in their next National Communications to the UNFCCC. Lawrence Berkeley Nat Labs: A global end-use oriented energy model. Energy and Carbon Scenarios: Chinese Energy Research Institute (ERI) and LBNL. USA: State level climate action strategies in California, Washington, Oregon and Rhode Island,. Transport Energy Use and Emissions: Various U.S. transportation NGOs (UCS, ACEEE, SEI) and seven Asian Cities (AIT). APERC Energy Outlook: Energy forecasts for each APEC economy. East Asia Energy Futures Project: Study of energy security issues in East Asian countries including the Koreas, China, Mongolia, Russia, Japan (lead by Nautilus Institute). Integrated Resource Planning: Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Ghana, South Africa. Integrated Environmental Strategies: U.S. EPA assists developing countries in addressing both local environmental concerns and associated global greenhouse gas emissions. City Level Energy Strategies: South Africa. Sulfur Abatement Scenarios for China: Chinese EPA/UNEP.

IEA World Energy Outlook 2007: Reference Scenario Global primary energy needs are projected to grow by 55% between 2005 and Fossil fuels will account for 84% of the increase. Coal use jumps by 73%. Developing countries will contribute 74% of the increase in global primary energy. CO2 emissions will jump by 57% between 2005 and The U.S., China, Russia and India contribute two-thirds of this increase. In 2030, Chinas per-capita emissions will still be only 40% of those of the U.S. and the OECD nations will still account for 36% of CO2 emissions (versus 48% in 2005). IEA suggests this scenario is consistent with stabilization of CO2 equivalent concentrations of CO2e. 450 ppm CO2e is generally considered a target for climate protection.

Two trends with implications for how we address climate mitigation: Issue 1: mitigation will be vital in the developing world. Issue 2: mitigation will need to address lifestyle questions.