1. Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing Climate, Energy and Pollution Program World Resources Institute BAS I C

2. 450 high 550 high Higher Emissions = Higher Risks Source: IPCC TAR, 2001 450 low 550 low

3. 57% 35% 84% Millions of Tons of Carbon Equiv. 39% 118% 19% 42% 70% 80% 68% 26% 124% But GHG emissions are projected to continue to increase… Source: WRI CAIT

4. The development challenge Population without access to electricity, selected countries Source: Bradley and Baumert, Growing in the Greenhouse

5. The development challenge Motor vehicles per 1000 people, selected countries Source: Bradley and Baumert, Growing in the Greenhouse

6. GLOBAL CO 2 EMISSIONS FOR IPCC/SRES SCENARIO GROUPS

7. A commitment to implement a policy or measure – not based on GHG emissions, but where the development path results in lowered emissions. Driven by host country development needs. Large-scale policies and measures, not projects. Development path chosen results in significantly lower emissions. Declared and registered under the international climate framework. What is an SD-PAM?

8. Looking at real-world examples Brazil Biofuels for transport Reducing the economic impact of oil imports and supporting the rural economy China Innovative transport approaches Promoting mobility while avoiding urban infrastructure and oil supply constraints South Africa Carbon capture and storage Finding ways to reduce the impact of coal in developing countries India Renewable energy in rural electrification Providing electricity faster and safer to 500 million people

9. Indias rural electrification: 500-600 million people without electricity. Three supply scenarios: –Grid First –Diesel First –Renewables First Three levels of rural electricity demand. India – options for rural electrification Source: Dubash and Bradley

10. Approaches are evaluated by Indias national criteria. Grid First offers little hope of meeting electrification goals. Diesel First raises significant oil import concerns. Renewables First brings benefits but at significant capital cost – can international policy help? India – a wider potential role for renewable energy Qualitative assessment of the scenarios CO2 emissions under the scenarios Source: Dubash and Bradley

11. Motor Vehicle Shares of Criteria Pollutants in Chinese Cities Source: Schipper and Ng, 2005 City CO (%)HC (%)NOx (%) Beijing (2000) 777840 Shanghai (1996) 869656 Guangzhou (2000) 845045

12. Oil Production, Consumption and Imports for China Source: Schipper and Ng, 2005

13. Three scenarios for China: Energy and Carbon from Motor Vehicles Source: Schipper and Ng, 2005

14. Fitting SD-PAMs into future climate agreements –Consistent with UNFCCC & KP (including evolving CDM) –Could be implemented through new arrangements Financing SD-PAMs –Allows funding from both climate resources (including GEF, CDM etc) and non-climate resources (FDI, World Bank, etc.) –Still inadequate to development (and climate) needs Limitations of SD-PAMs –Does not substitute for mitigation by developed countries –Not appropriate for every technology or policy. –Implementation, on the scale needed, may not attract sufficient funding. Implementing SD PAMS