Thailand Energy Situation Jan -Jun 2015

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Presentation transcript:

Thailand Energy Situation Jan -Jun 2015

Production, Consumption and Import (Net) of Primary Commercial Energy Unit: KBD crude oil equivalent   2012 2013 2014 2015* Consumption 1,982 2,002 2,052 2,090 Production 1,082 1,078 1,073 1,033 Import (Net) 1,121 1,171 1,295 Import/Consumption (%) 55 56 57 62  Growth Rate (%)  6.9 1.0 2.6 1.2 6.3 -0.4 -0.5 -5.4 6.1 3.6 4.4 8.0 GDP (%) 7.3 2.8 0.9 2.9 * Jan - Jun

Consumption of Primary Commercial Energy Unit: KBD crude oil equivalent   2012 2013 2014 2015* Total Consumption 1,982 2,002 2,052 2,090 - Oil 710 730 734 775 - Natural Gas 889 909 916 926 - Imported Coal 230 217 261 270 - Domestic Lignite 98 101 97 78 - Hydro/Imported Elec. 55 46 44 41 6.9 1.0 2.6 1.2 5.2 2.8 0.6 3.0 9.8 2.3 0.8 2.0 12.4 -5.6 20.5 7.2 -12.6 2.5 -3.3 -22.3 - Hydro/Imported Elec. -17.6 -3.6 -21.0 * Jan - Jun

Final Commercial Energy Consumption Unit: KBD crude oil equivalent   2012 2013 2014 2015* Total Consumption 1,300 1,317 1,364 1,429 - Oil 704 723 726 770 - Natural Gas 169 174 178 180 - Imported Coal 132 119 155 - Domestic Lignite 15 17 13 5 - Electricity 280 284 292 300 Growth Rate (%)  5.7 1.3 3.6 4.9 5.3 2.7 0.5 4.2 16.1 2.9 2.5 3.2 3.9 -10.0 29.9 21.8 -43.7 10.5 -23.6 -64.4 6.8 1.6 2.8 3.3 GDP (%) 7.3 0.9 Elasticity 0.8 4.0 1.7 - 4 - * Jan - Jun

Crude Oil Supply Import Total 149 139 143 14 860 868 805 893 86 1,009 Unit: KBD   2012 2013 2014 2015* Share (%) Domestic Production 149 139 143 14 Import 860 868 805 893 86 Total 1,009 1,017 944 1,036 100 * Jan - Jun - 5 - 5

Crude Oil Supply -- by Source Unit: Barrels/Day   2012 2013 2014 2015* Benjamas 25,439 20,652 22,663 19,968 Sirikit 28,423 32,889 27,948 28,031 Tantawan 3,748 2,754 1,645 2,059 Unocal (Big Oil Project) 28,281 29,816 24,051 22,078 Jusmin 10,408 10,478 9,796 9,745 Bualaung 7,200 12,317 12,496 12,572 Songkha 19,883 20,322 14,297 11,276 Lanta 6,671 4,331 6,688 6,486 Others 18,924 15,922 19,174 30,339 Total Domestic Prod. 148,977 149,481 138,758 142,554 Import 860,211 868,040 804,912 892,985 Grand Total 1,009,188 1,017,521 943,670 1,035,539 * Jan - Jun

Condensate Production Unit: Barrels/Day   2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Bongkot 20,556 27,359 32,480 28,877 29,397 Erawan 10,531 9,025 5,863 6,756 5,610 Pailin 18,048 11,861 11,234 10,525 8,538 Funan & Jakrawan 5,508 7,842 7,671 6,850 5,772 Arthit 15,811 10,548 9,230 9,403 8,673 Others 13,682 23,004 24,681 31,919 41,118 Total 84,136 89,639 91,159 94,330 99,108 * Jan - Jun

Refinery Utilization Rate 2014 Refining Capacity (BBL/D) Crude Oil Intake* Utilization Rate (%) Thai Oil 275,000 305,269 111 Bangchak 120,000 112,111 93 ESSO 177,000 142,600 81 IRPC 215,000 193,937 90 PTTAR 280,000 197,011 70 SPRC 165,000 180,456 109 RPC 17,000 - FANG 2,500 655 26 Total 1,251,500 1,132,040 * Jan - Jun - 8 -

Refinery Utilization Rate 2015 * BBL/D * Jan - Jun

Petroleum Product Production Unit: Million Litres Energy Type 2013 2014 Jan - Jun Growth Rate (%)  Share (%) 2015 2015* GASOLINE 9,853.3 9,886.5 4,807.8 5,338.1 0.3 11.0 17 Regular 4,786.7 4,843.1 2,371.4 2,585.0 1.1 9.0 8 Premium 5,066.6 5,043.3 2,436.4 2,753.1 -0.4 12.9 9 - Gasohol 4,135.5 4,430.4 2,108.9 2,433.7 7.1 15.3 - ULG 95 931.1 612.9 327.5 319.5 -34.1 -2.4 1 KEROSENE 694.9 1,098.0 480.6 688.5 58.0 43.2 2 DIESEL 25,524.9 24,068.1 11,736.4 13,464.4 -5.7 14.7 43 JET PETROLEUM 6,680.1 6,638.5 3,267.3 3,551.0 -0.6 8.6 11 FUEL OIL 5,939.6 5,667.4 2,693.5 2,830.1 -4.5 5.0 LPG 10,087.1 10,196.7 4,996.4 5,113.0 1.0 2.3 TOTAL 58,779.8 57,555.0 27,981.9 30,985.2 -2.0 10.7 100 * Jan - Jun

Petroleum Product Consumption Unit: Million Litres Energy Type 2013 2014 Jan - Jun Growth Rate (%)  Share (%) 2015 2015* GASOLINE 8,194.9 8,506.1 4,090.1 4,663.0 3.7 14.0 18 Regular 3,445.8 3,594.8 1,726.5 1,979.0 4.3 14.6 8 Premium 4,749.1 4,911.3 2,363.6 2,684.0 3.4 13.5 10 - Gasohol 4,132.9 4,413.1 2,107.7 2,433.2 6.7 15.4 9 - ULG 95 616.2 498.2 255.9 250.8 -19.1 -1.9 1 KEROSENE 11.0 10.8 5.5 0.0  0.02 DIESEL 20,907.4 21,083.9 10,825.7 11,116.4 0.8 2.6 42 JET PETROLEUM 5,562.4 5,513.1 2,802.4 3,020.1 -0.8 7.7 12 FUEL OIL 2,175.1 2,092.8 1,110.3 1,029.3 -3.7 -7.2 4 LPG ** 13,934.7 13,917.0 6,896.6 6,343.8 -0.1 -8.0 24 TOTAL 50,785.5 51,123.5 25,730.6 26,178.2 0.6 1.7 100 * Jan - Jun * Jan - Jun ** Including Propane and Butane

∆ (%) from previous year ∆(%) from previous month NGV Consumption Unit: MMSCFD   Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-Dec 2012 267 276 279 260 278 280 271 283 284 285 292 278  2013 290 310 309 291 314 307 317 303 2014 304 326 327 302 318 319 320 316 313 2015 329 299 312 313* ∆ (%) from previous year 0.0 -2.1 0.6 -1.0 -0.6 -1.6 -0.8* ∆(%) from previous month -2.9 4.9 3.1 -9.1 5.7 -1.3 * Jan - Jun

Import of Petroleum Products Unit: Million Litres Energy Type 2013 2014 Jan - Jun Growth Rate (%)  Share(%) 2015 2015* GASOLINE 262.2 884.3 598.0 488.7 237.2 -18.2 24 DIESEL 196.7 348.1 291.4 117.5 76.9 -59.6 6 JET PETROLEUM 16.2 4.2 2.5 1.9 -74.3 -26.4 0.1 FUEL OIL 268.4 370.8 203.5 104.6 38.1 -48.5 5 LPG** 3,651.2 3,887.4 1,915.2 1,334.6 6.4 -30.3 65 TOTAL 4,394.7 5,494.7 3,010.6 2,047.1 25.0 -32.0 100 * Jan - Jun ** Including Propane and Butane

Export of Petroleum Products Unit: Million Litres Energy Type 2013 2014 Jan - Jun Growth Rate (%)  Share(%) 2015 2015* GASOLINE 1,634.4 1,339.7 698.0 618.6 -18.0 -11.3 11 Regular 1,369.5 1,205.7 611.9 563.7 -11.9 -7.8 10 Premium 95 264.9 134.0 86.2 54.8 -49.4 -36.3 1 KEROSENE 4,874.3 4,316.9 1,580.8 2,561.9 -11.4 62.0 45 DIESEL 19.2 29.8 4.2 7.9 55.1 87.2 0.1 JET PETROLEUM 1,536.6 1,296.6 344.7 756.8 -15.6 119.5 13 FUEL OIL 3,774.3 3,835.9 1,648.7 1,731.3 1.6 5.0 30 LPG 11.2 18.5 13.9 23.6 65.2 69.1 0.4 TOTAL 11,850.0 10,837.4 4,290.3 5,699.9 -8.5 32.8 100 * Jan - Jun

Supply and Demand of LPG, Propane and Butane Unit: 1,000 Tons 2012 2013 2014 2015* Growth Rate (%) Share TOTAL SUPPLY 7,416 7,419 7,605 3,482 2.5 -6.7 100.0 - PRODUCTION 5,686 5,447 5,506 2,761 1.1 2.3 79.3 - IMPORT 1,730 1,972 2,099 721 6.5 -30.3 20.7 TOTAL DEMAND (CONSUMPTION+EXPORT) 7,396 7,531 7,525 3,438 -0.1 -7.9   - CONSUMPTION 7,386 7,515 3,426 -8.0 Household 3,047 2,409 2,188 1,035 -9.2 -6.0 30.2 Industry 614 602 577 294 -4.2 4.6 8.6 Automobile 1,061 1,775 1,974 891 11.2 -7.7 26.0 Petrochemical Industry 1,285 1,327 1,546 476 16.5 -43.1 13.9 Own Use 1,380 1,412 1,231 729 -12.9 35.4 21.3 - Feed Stock 1,270 1,314 1,129 657 -14.1 34.4 19.2 - Energy 110 98 102 72 3.4 45.5 2.1 - EXPORT 10 6 13 65.2 69.2 BALANCE (SUPPLY-DEMAND) 20 -112 80 43 * Jan - Jun

Crude Oil Import by Source Unit: Million Litres 2012 2013 2014 2015* Growth Rate (%) Share Middle East 37,460 37,572 31,002 16,813 -17.5 8.1 65 Far East 4,022 4,370 4,517 4,787 3.4 145.8 19 Others 8,575 8,431 11,192 4,098 32.7 -27.0 16 Total 50,056 50,374 46,710 25,698 -7.3 11.2 100 * Jan - Jun - 16 -

Crude Oil Import Increased by 11.2% Growth Rate (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015* QUANTITY (KBD) 860 868 805 893 0.9 -7.2 11.2 VALUE (Billion Baht) 1,119 1,072 980 315 -4.2 -8.6 -39.7 PRICE (US$/Barrel) 113.94 109.69 102.25 58.88 -3.7 -6.8 -46.6 * Jan - Jun

Comparison of Energy Prices Fuel Oil* Natural Gas* Import Coal** * Average retail prices ** Average import price of Thailand (CIF)

Natural Gas Supply 2012 2013 2014 2015* Domestic Production 3,996 Unit: MMSCFD 2012 2013 2014 2015* Share (%) Domestic Production 3,996 4,044 4,073 3,895 76 Import 950 1,013 1,025 1,258 24 Total 4,946 5,057 5,098 5,153 100 * Jan - Jun - 19 -

Natural Gas Supply by Source MMSCFD 2012 2013 2014 2015* Total Domestic Product 3,996 4,044 4,073 3,895 - Bongkot 869 1,008 975 1,004 - Erawan 255 197 219 203 - Pailin 361 363 314 271 - Arthit 268 252 246 230 - JDA 748 735 761 687 - Others 1,495 1,489 1,558 1,500 Total Import 950 1,013 1,025 1,258 - Import (Myanmar) 820 822 843 928 - Import (LNG) 130 191 182 330 Grand Total 4,946 5,057 5,098 5,153 * Jan - Jun

Lignite/Coal Production 2012 2013 2014 2015* MAE-MOH (EGAT) 16,590 17,072 17,140 7,448 OTHERS 1,476 1,039 842 346 Total Domestic Prod. 18,066 18,111 17,982 7,794 Imported Coal 18,404 17,328 20,881 10,806 Grand Total 36,470 35,439 38,861 18,600 Unit: 1,000 Tons * Jan - Jun

Lignite/Coal Consumption by Sector Unit: Ktoe Sector 2012 2013 2014 2015* Power Gen. 9,005.8 9,048.2 9,521.2 4,185.2 Industry 7,400.8 6,797.5 8,375.7 4,439.2 Total 16,406.6 15,845.7 17,897.0 8,624.4 Consumption Share Unit: % Sector 2012 2013 2014 2015* Power Gen. 54.9 57.1 53.2 48.5 Industry 45.1 42.9 46.8 51.5 Total 100 * Jan - Jun - 22 -

Power Generation – Installed Capacity as of June 2015 Import/Exchange SPP (2,405MW) (3,817 MW) EGAT IPP (15,482 MW) (13,166 MW) Total 36,171 MW

Power Generation by Fuel Type Unit: GWh Year Natural Gas Coal & Lignite Oil Hydro Import Renewable Energy Total 2012 119,368 34,583 1,363 8,431 10,527 2,701 176,973 2013 119,218 35,352 1,418 5,412 12,572 3,427 177,398 2014 120,314 37,572 1,643 5,164 12,260 3,993 180,945 2015* 64,501 16,628 453 2,112 6,437 2,304 92,434 Growth Rate (%) 10.3 9.1 2.4 6.3 -2.3 15.9 9.0 -0.1 2.2 4.0 -35.8 19.4 26.9 0.2 0.9 -4.6 -2.5 16.5 2.0 10.6 -13.4 -53.5 -37.0 3.0 6.0 * Jan - Jun

Peak Demand and Load Factor YEAR PEAK DEMAND LOAD FACTOR RESERVE JunGIN   (MW) (%) 2005 20,538 74.9 33.5 2006 21,064 76.9 29.4 2007 22,586 74.3 32.0 2008 22,568 74.8 40.1 2009 22,045 75.0 36.1 2010 24,010 75.9 31.9 2011 23,900 75.6 38.8 2012 26,121 75.2 27.6 2013 26,598 74.1 29.9 2014 26,942 75.7 32.9 2015* 27,346 76.3 30.1 * Jan - Jun

Electricity Consumption Unit: GWh 2012 2013 2014 2015* Growth Rate (%) MEA 48,244 47,984 48,236 24,556 9.2 -0.5 0.5 2.7 PEA 111,718 114,619 118,637 60,594 8.5 2.6 3.5 3.7 EGAT’s Direct Customers 1,817 1,738 1,747 923 6.0 -4.4 4.3 Total 161,779 164,341 168,620 86,072 8.7 1.6 3.4 * Jan - Jun - 26 -

Electricity Consumption for the Whole Country (Classified by Sector) Unit: GWh Sector 2012 2013 2014 2015* Growth rate (%) Share (%) Residential 36,447 37,657 38,993 20,292 11.1 3.3 3.5 4.5 23.6 Small General Service 17,013 18,374 18,807 9,679 10.1 8.0 2.4 4.1 11.2 Business 27,088 30,413 31,362 16,247 14.5 12.3 3.1 5.6 18.9 Industrial 72,336 72,536 73,782 37,015 6.5 0.3 1.7 2.1 43.0 Government and Non-Profit Org. 3,799 149 152 85 -22.3 -96.1 2.0 13.8 0.1 Agriculture 377 354 414 206 27.1 -6.2 17.2 -23.6 0.2 Free of Charge 2,191 2,379 2,517 1,344 1.1 8.6 5.8 10.7 1.6 Other 2,527 2,479 2,592 1,203 52.7 -1.9 4.6 -7.3 1.4 Total 161,779 164,341 168,620 86,072 8.7 2.6 3.4 100.0 * Jan - Jun

Electricity Consumption for the Whole Country (Classified by TSIC) Unit: GWh Type 2012 2013 2014 2015* Growth Rate (%) 1. Food 9,721 9,697 10,281 5,010 8.5 -0.2 6.0 1.4 2. Iron and steel 6,954 7,065 7,252 3,469 4.9 1.6 2.7 -2.2 3. Textiles 6,038 6,040 6,036 2,909 -2.3 0.0 -0.1 4. Electronic 6,325 6,547 6,960 3,470 -5.9 3.5 6.3 2.5 5. Plastics 4,458 4,531 4,539 2,307 7.1 0.2 2.0 6. Automotive 4,042 4,028 5,125 2,688 6.8 -0.3 -1.8 7.6 7. Cement 4,950 5,220 4,137 2,217 27.2 5.4 5.9 8. Chemicals 2,155 2,117 2,098 1,060 -1.7 -0.9 9. Rubber and rubber products 3,012 3,086 3,059 1,533 8.4 2.4 -0.8 10. Manufacture of ice 2,697 2,651 2,705 1,439 11.5 2.1 5.2 * Jan - Jun

Electricity Consumption for the Whole Country (Classified by Commercial Cluster) Unit: GWh Type 2012 2013 2014 2015* Growth Rate (%) 1. Department Store 4,491 4,595 4,743 2,409 8.0 2.3 3.2 2.9 2. Hotel 3,671 3,814 3,797 1,999 9.9 3.9 -0.3 4.9 3. Apartment & Guest House 3,291 3,494 3,687 1,992 12.9 6.2 5.5 10.0 4. Retail sale 2,969 3,141 3,317 1,743 14.4 5.8 5.6 6.5 5. Real Estate Service 2,789 2,866 2,881 1,452 11.2 2.8 0.5 2.0 6. Hospital 2,222 2,337 2,388 1,229 9.7 5.2 2.2 4.2 7. Wholesale 2,242 2,277 2,411 1,264 18.1 1.6 5.9 7.7 8. Construction 980 1,036 1,338 659 -0.1 9. Financial Institute 950 935 688 375 7.0 -1.6 7.6 13.9 10. Restaurant & Night Club 869 884 893 464 10.1 1.8 0.9 4.8 * Jan - Jun

Value of Energy Import Unit: Million Baht Growth Rate (%) 1,119,338 ENERGY TYPE 2012 2013 2014 Jan - Jun Growth Rate (%) 2015 2015* CRUDE OIL 1,119,338 1,072,221 979,704 523,754 315,543 14.5 95.8 -8.6 -39.8 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 124,171 139,021 202,265 111,739 54,060 29.2 12.0 45.5 -51.6 NATURAL GAS 116,325 111,911 117,172 49,093 57,774 24.4 -3.8 4.7 17.7 COAL 46,702 39,714 47,947 24,937 22,472 10.3 -15.0 20.7 -9.9 ELECTRICITY 15,440 18,546 18,919 9,691 9,642 11.4 20.1 2.0 -0.5 LNG 24,023 34,827 33,304 22,449 22,149 50.2 45.0 -4.4 -1.3 TOTAL 1,445,999 1,416,239 1,399,311 741,664 481,640 16.7 -2.1 -1.2 -35.1 * Jan - Jun

Value of Energy Export Unit: Million Baht Growth Rate (%) CRUDE OIL ENERGY TYPE 2012 2013 2014 Jan - Jun Growth Rate (%) 2015 2015* CRUDE OIL 51,531 29,115 8,653 8,011 -43.5 -70.3 -100.0 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 344,384 342,208 301,425 144,135 102,897 -0.6 -11.9 -28.6 ELECTRICITY 5,223 4,424 5,116 3,540 3,927 -15.3 15.6 10.9 TOTAL 401,138 375,747 315,194 155,685 106,824 -6.3 -16.1 -31.4 * Jan - Jun

Expenditure on Final Energy Consumption Unit: Million Baht ENERGY TYPE 2012 2013 2014 Jan - Jun Growth Rate (%) 2015 2015* PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 1,312,207 1,326,937 1,336,615 686,597 599,970 1.1 0.7 -12.6 ELECTRICITY 562,655 621,328 662,474 324,237 332,091 10.4 6.6 2.4 NATURAL GAS 122,509 121,005 123,964 60,108 56,239 -1.2 -6.4 LIGNITE/COAL 31,607 26,096 33,483 15,723 16,870 -17.4 28.3 7.3 RENEWABLE ** 118,276 125,962 123,100 64,132 71,761 6.5 -2.3 11.9 TOTAL 2,147,253 2,221,328 2,279,636 1,150,796 1,076,930 3.4 2.6 * Jan - Jun ** Estimate

Expenditure on Petroleum Product Consumption Unit: Million Baht ENERGY TYPE 2012 2013 2014 Jan - Jun Growth Rate (%) 2015 2015* GASOLINE 298,487 304,451 314,369 159,271 130,884 2.0 3.3 -17.8 Regular 91 210,016 121,836 130,975 66,197 54,782 -42.0 7.5 -17.2 Premium 88,471 182,615 183,394 93,074 76,102 106.4 0.4 -18.2 KEROSENE 484 390 380 196 173 -19.4 -2.5 -12.1 DIESEL 625,687 624,676 625,076 324,127 288,968 -0.2 0.1 -10.8 J.P. 183,075 197,243 194,279 99,373 94,242 7.7 -1.5 -5.2 FUEL OIL 60,821 50,682 47,284 25,279 20,206 -16.7 -6.7 -20.1 LPG 143,653 149,495 155,227 78,351 65,499 4.1 3.8 -16.4 TOTAL 1,312,207 1,326,937 1,336,615 686,597 599,970 1.1 0.7 -12.6 * Jan - Jun