1. CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP
The Future of Total Primary Energy Supply in the Central-and East-European Countries
15. November 2004
Katowice, Poland
The Present Situation and the Future of Total Primary Energy Supply in Estonia
Estonia Dr. Ülo Rudi Tallinn University of Technology

2. CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland
Content
Why Estonia does like oil shale electricity?
Which are the main problems with generation electricity from oil shale?
Why we are optimistic?
The future of Estonian energy supply
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

3. Estonia likes oil shale, because
Oil shale is the local fuel
The oil shale sector is an employer for employees
Oil shale is the cheepest energy fuel in Estonia
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

4. The biggest problems of the oil shale energy are
The oil shale energy sector is the biggest polluter in Estonia
Too low efficiency
The big pollution charge
The concentrated electricity production
The obligation to buy RES based electricity and price quarantee for the RES electricity
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

5. Structure of Oil Shale Use
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

6. Capacity and Production of Power Plants 2003
Installed electrical capacity, MW
Thermal Power Plants
3019
2410
Hydro Plants
3,8
3,6
Wind Plants
2,5
2,2
Electricity production, TWh
10,1580 9,36 oil shale; 0,505 natural gas; 0,033 shale oil; 0,0241 others
0,0128
0,0061
Heat production, TWh
3,9510 1,592 oil shale; 1,572 natural gas; 0,015 shale oil; 0,772 others
Available electrical capacity, MW
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

7. Gross Energy Production2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
TWh
Electricity
Heat
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

8. CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland
Electricity Balance
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
20,0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
TWh
Gross Production
Import
Consumption
Export
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

9. CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland
Other
Agriculture
Households
Transport
Construction
Industry
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

10. CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland
Dynamics of Average Electricity Price and Households Electricity Rates, €cent / kWh
4,876
4,282
4,065
3,522
3,247
2,435
2,109
1,892
1,572
1,029
0,812
5,688
0,709
1,010
1,898
2,141
2,461
3,132
3,259
3,694
5,036
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
Households
Total average
Source: Eesti Energia Ltd
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

11. Emissions of Oil Shale Power Plants ths. tons
1990
2000
2003
SO2
175,89
74,44
81,61
NOx
16,31
10,32
13,53
CO2
20158,84
10866,4
11840,0
Fly Ash
154,27
47,84
21,74
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

12. CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland
GHG emissions, total
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002 10 6 t
CO2 total
CO2 from energy production
CO2 from industry
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

13. CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland
Pollution Fees, € / t
SO2 2,45 2,45 2,94 3,53 4,23
NOx 5,61 5,61 6,74 8,08 9,70
Solid particles 2,45 2,45 2,94 3,53 4,23
Ash storage 0,08 0,15 0,24 0,37 0,54
CO ,32 0,48
Source:State Gazette
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

14. We are optimistic, because:
We have new more efficiency CFB technology
The renovated oil shale boilers with CFB technology satisfy the requirements of EU directives
Estonia has the enough transition period for the renovation oil shale energy
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

15. EU Emission’s Predictions
Pollutant
EU Directive 88/609/EEC
EU Directive 2001/81/EEC
Existing Units at Narva PP average in
New Units with Fluidised Bed Boilers
mg/Nm3
for new units
1990
2002
according to the test results
SO2
400
200
1800
1480 24
NOx
650
170
195
100
Fly Ash 50 30
1680
1350 18
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

16. General Data of Estonia
General Energy Data
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Population [in milion 106]
1,57
1,37
1,31
1,23
1,19
GDP 109 US$off
6,97
6,10
9,94
13,00
15,00
GDP 109 US$ ppp
13,93
12,00
18,88
25,80
29,50
GDP/c US$ppp
8,86
8,74
14,41
21,00
25,00
TPES [PJ]
416,61
190,89
210,84
211,00
TPES/c [TJ]
0,265
0,139
0,161
0,171
0,177
Electricity Supply [TWh]
17,18
8,51
8,32
9,08
11,05
Electricity/c [MWh]
10,94
6,20
6,35
7,38
9,29
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

17. Electricity Balance, TWh
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Gross Generation [TWh]
17,18
8,51
8,32
9,08
11,05
Coal (Oil Shale)
17,02
7,72
6,56
7,22
Oil
0,16
0,03
0,04
Gas
0,56
1,20
1,30
3,20
Nuclear
Renewables
0,01
0,33
0,40
Other
0,00
0,19
0,20
Imports (+)
1,48
0,37
1,19
2,00
1,90
Exports (-)
8,48
0,70
0,86
0,99
Own Use & Losses (-)
2,88
2,16
1,80
1,70
Consumption
7,30
5,42
6,91
8,42
10,26
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

18. Installed Capacity and Peak Demand, MW
Specification
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Power Stations
3425
3213
2715
2280
2680
Coal (Oil Shale)
3392
2957
2200
1700
1600
Oil 32 40
Gas
210
315
350
820
Nuclear
Renewables
1,8
100
110
120
Other
1,0
12,2 60 80
Peak Demand
1800
1300
2400
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

19. Consumption Trends of Solid Fossil Fuels
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland

20. Estonian Energy prospective Energy Development Plan 2015 (2030)
2000
2010
Primary energy supply, PJ
189
220 – 250
Oil Shale consumption, 106 t
13.2
11 – 13
Share of renewables in energy supply, %
10.5
13 – 15
Share of renewables in production of electricity, %
0.1
5.1
Final consumption of electricity, TWh
5.4
6.5 – 8.0
Required net capacity of power plants, MW
1980
2400 – 2650
Share of CHP in generation of electricity, %
12 – 14
15 – 20
Opening of electricity market, % 10
35 – 40
Heat consumption, TWh
8.5
8 – 9
Share of CHP in heat production, % 33
Emission, share of limit for 2008, %
SO2
181
90 – 100
CO2 48
50 – 55
15. November 2004
CENERG 3rd TEMATIC WORKSHOP, Katowice, Poland