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This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could.

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Presentation on theme: "This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could."— Presentation transcript:

1 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Rob Gardner April 2015

2 2 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy GDP Growth Varies By Region GDP Growth Rate Y/Y Percent India China Key Growth United States OECD Europe* World GDP by Region Trillion 2010$ OECD Non OECD 3.1% 2.8% *Turkey included in Key Growth countries

3 3 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy The Middle Class Continues to Grow Billion People China India Key Growth Rest of World OECD* Middle Class per The Brookings Institution Brazil Mexico South Africa Nigeria Saudi Arabia Indonesia Thailand Egypt China India Turkey Iran *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

4 4 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy

5 5 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Developing Economies Dominate Growth OECD* Rest of World India China Key Growth Quadrillion BTUs Demand by Region *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

6 6 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy

7 7 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy GW Global Capacity Utilized Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves k TWh By Generation Wind & Solar Oil Coal Nuclear Other Renewables Gas

8 8 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy

9 9 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Residential Commercial Oil Biomass Other Renewables Electricity Gas Coal Demand By SectorDemand By Fuel China’s Urban Households Have Modernized Rapidly Appliances per 100 Households China’s Urban Appliance Ownership OECD* China Washing Machine Water Heater Refrigerator Air Conditioner Color TV Computer Source: China Statistical Yearbook Quadrillion BTUs

10 10 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Transportation

11 11 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Advanced Powertrains and Alternative Fuels Gasoline Diesel Ethanol Spark Ignition ICE Compression Ignition ICE Stop-Start Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid HydrogenFuel Cell Vehicle Electricity Battery Electric Vehicle Biodiesel CNG LNG MOTOR BATTERY ENGINE FUEL TANK FC STACK H2 TANK

12 12 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 201020252040 Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Million Vehicles

13 13 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Industrial Demand Industrial Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Other Energy Industry Heavy Industry Chemical Plastics Fertilizer Paint Steel Textiles Liquid Fuels Coal Natural Gas Agriculture Lubricants Asphalt Automobiles

14 14 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Energy Use Evolves Over Time Biomass Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Other Renewables Quadrillion BTUs Demand by Fuel

15 15 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy CO 2 Emissions

16 16 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy World Emissions Billion metric tonnes CO 2 Emissions by Region OECD* Rest of World India China Key Growth *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person ‘10 ‘40

17 17 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Supply z z

18 18 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Highest Texas Production Since 1980’s Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; 2014 through Aug Texas Field Production of Crude Oil KBD

19 19 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Liquids Trade Balance by Region North America MBDOE Other Natural Gas Liquids Biofuels Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand ‘10‘30‘20‘40‘10‘20‘30‘40

20 20 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Liquids Trade Balance by Region North America Latin America EuropeRussia/ Caspian AfricaMiddle East Asia Pacific MBDOE Biofuels Natural Gas Liquids Other Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand ‘10‘30‘40‘20

21 21 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Pennsylvania’s 20x Increase Source: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Pennsylvania Natural Gas Production BCFD

22 22 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Asia Pacific Middle East Russia/ Caspian EuropeAfricaLatin America North America Gas Trade Balance by Region Production BCFD Unconventional Production Conventional Production Demand ‘30‘40‘10‘20

23 For more information, visit exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook or download the ExxonMobil app

24

25 25 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy North America Gas Production Unconventional Conventional BCFD

26 26 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy LNG Exports Triple and Inter-regional PL Exports Double LNG Exports by Basin BCFD MEAtlanticPacific Inter-regional Pipeline Exports BCFD Local Conventional Pipeline LNG BCFD Gas Supply Local Unconventional

27 27 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 2040 LDV Fleet Base Fleet Population Growth Improved Standard of Living Light Duty Vehicle Fleet and Demand World LDV Demand MBDOE Improved Standard of Living Population Growth Million *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries Energy Savings

28 28 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Improved Standard of Living Population Growth Electricity Demand Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh Electricity Demand Thousand TWh United States India Europe China Key Growth 2014 Industrial Growth Base Demand

29 29 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity 2030 Levelized Cost of Electricity 2014 U.S. cents/kWh Reliability Cost* CO 2 Cost: $60/tonne Unable to meet NSPS *Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs. BaseloadIntermittent

30 30 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Wind and Solar Demand Electricity Share Delivered by Wind and Solar Percent Global Wind and Solar Capacity Gigawatts Onshore Wind Solar United States China India European Union Offshore Wind

31 31 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon U.S. Average Fleet Europe Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Fleet by Type Million

32 32 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Transportation Fuel Demand World MBDOE United States MBDOE Diesel Gasoline Ethanol Biodiesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Other Natural Gas

33 33 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy U.S. Energy Trends Indexed to 2000 GDP Population Demand Carbon Emissions

34 34 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Billion Tonnes U.S. Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Liquids Gas Coal Transportation Electricity Generation Industrial Res/Comm By SectorBy Fuel Billion Tonnes

35 35 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Electricity Generation Fuel by Region Quadrillion BTUs ‘10 ‘25 ‘40 Key Growth Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Solar Wind Other *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

36 36 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Global Demand 2040 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 1.0% 2010 0.8% 1.6% 2.3% 0.5% 5.8% 1.8% 0.1%

37 37 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Local Production Pipeline LNG Local Production Energy Trade BCFD Gas DemandLiquids Demand MBDOE Imports/Exports


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