Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia

A ‘selective’ view from Norwich MICE / PRUDENCE / STARDEX ENSEMBLES

This co-operative cluster of projects brings together European expertise in the fields of climate modelling, regional downscaling, statistics, and impacts analysis to explore future changes in extreme events in response to global warming.PRUDENCE will provide high-resolution climate change scenarios for for Europe using regional climate models. PRUDENCE project summaryPRUDENCE project summarySTARDEX will provide improved downscaling methodologies for the construction of scenarios of changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. STARDEX project summarySTARDEX project summaryMICE uses information from climate models to explore future changes in extreme events across Europe in response to global warming. MICE project summary MICE project summary Last modified: 16 August 2002 MICE STARDEX PRUDENCE Project Web Sites: Contact Information Copyright information: the above photo montage was created in XaraX using copyright pictures from: © Collier County Florida Emergency Management and © Environment Agency. The three projects are supported by the European Commission under the Framework V Thematic Programme ”Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development” (EESD), Scroll down for Project Summaries: follow the links above to Project Web Sites. Hit Counter Web Site designed and implemented by Tom Holt, © 2002 Comments and suggestions welcome: PRUDENCE STARDEX MICE

Observed changes in extremes

trend in frost days Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

trend in frost days Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing. Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX Athens February 2004

trend in hot summer (JJA) days Scale is days per year. Red is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

Scale is days per year. Red is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX Western Europe August 2003 Property damage: US$ 13 bn Fatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France) trend in hot summer (JJA) days

trend in heavy summer (JJA) rain events Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

trend in heavy summer rain events Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX Central and Eastern Europe August 2002 Fatalities: > 100 Economic losses: > US$18 bn Insured losses: > US$3 bn

Are extremes well simulated by climate models?

90% precipitation quantile, Autumn (SON) OBS (79-93) HadRM (CTR1)HIRHAM (CTR1) Figure provided by Christoph Frei, ETH and STARDEX/PRUDENCE

How are extremes projected to change?

GC Column 1: HadAM3. Columns 2-7: six European RCMs Top row: temperature. Bottom row: rainfall JJA changes: minus

DJF, Relative Change, Central Europe Frequency Intensity 90% Quantile 5-, 10-, 20-year Extremes Mean

JJA, Relative Change, Central Europe Frequency Intensity 90% Quantile 5-, 10-, 20-year Extremes Mean

Change in the length of the summer drought between and , based on the HadRM3 (A2a) simulation. Over the Mediterranean region of Europe, especially S. Italy and S. Spain, this number is predicted to increase by more than 30 days. RAINFALL: Summer Drought

Are the predicted future changes consistent with the observed changes in extremes?

Change in mean JJA rainfall from to (%) Change in exceedence of 99 th percentile of JJA rainfall from to Christensen & Christensen, Nature, 2003

Schaer et al., Nature, 2004 Beniston, GRL, 2004

Statistical downscaling – STARDEX

Heavy winter rainfall and links with North Atlantic Oscillation/SLP CC1: Heavy rainfall (R90N) CC1: mean sea level pressure Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

NW UK (averages of 15 stations) RBF - yellow, MLP – red, SDSM - green SE UK(averages of 28 stations) Colin Harpham and Rob Wilby, KCL/STARDEX

Murcia Alicante RBF (single-site) - blue, RBF - yellow, GA-RBF – red, SDSM - green Colin Harpham and Rob Wilby, KCL/STARDEX

STARDEX Study Regions UK: 6 stations Iberia: 16 stations Greece: 8 stations Italy: 7 stations Alps: 10 stations Germany: 10 stations The ‘FIC dataset’

Draft methodological criteria for statistical and dynamical downscaling

Draft performance criteria for statistical and dynamical downscaling

What are the potential impacts of the projected changes?

MICE Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes

2 objectives –To select/develop models to predict the impact of changing extremes on activity sectors Energy use Insurance losses Forestry (wind throw – N Europe) Forestry (fire – Mediterranean) Agriculture – Assess spatial changes in these impacts Work Package 4 – impact modelling

The impact of changes in climate extremes on Mediterranean Agriculture – GIS-based model of fire risk, Tuscany, Italy. Environmental Database –Climate –Morphology –Land use and vegetation cover –Forest fire data –Agricultural crops FWI and CROPSYST Interpolation strategies were tested Work Package 4 – impact modelling

95th percentile values of the FWI for August expressed as the difference between future scenarios (A2a, B2a) and the present scenario (A). Increase in the risk of heat stress during flowering stages expressed as the difference between future scenarios (A2a, B2a) and the present scenario (A)

4 mini workshops: –Climate Change and Winter Tourism , Lucerne. 34 participants, discussions about the uncertain future of winter tourism in the Alps –Poznan, impacts on flooding – –Lund, impacts on forests and high latitude ecosystems – –Crete, impacts on Mediterranean beach tourism – Work Package 5

This co-operative cluster of projects brings together European expertise in the fields of climate modelling, regional downscaling, statistics, and impacts analysis to explore future changes in extreme events in response to global warming.PRUDENCE will provide high-resolution climate change scenarios for for Europe using regional climate models. PRUDENCE project summaryPRUDENCE project summarySTARDEX will provide improved downscaling methodologies for the construction of scenarios of changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. STARDEX project summarySTARDEX project summaryMICE uses information from climate models to explore future changes in extreme events across Europe in response to global warming. MICE project summary MICE project summary Last modified: 16 August 2002 MICE STARDEX PRUDENCE Project Web Sites: Contact Information Copyright information: the above photo montage was created in XaraX using copyright pictures from: © Collier County Florida Emergency Management and © Environment Agency. The three projects are supported by the European Commission under the Framework V Thematic Programme ”Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development” (EESD), Scroll down for Project Summaries: follow the links above to Project Web Sites. Hit Counter Web Site designed and implemented by Tom Holt, © 2002 Comments and suggestions welcome: PRUDENCE STARDEX MICE

35 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts

36 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES A five year project under EC Framework Programme VI Start date 1 September? (concluding negotiations) Funding from EC of 15 million Euros 72 partners - EU, candidate countries, Switzerland, Australia, US Ten Research Themes

37 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Project Goals Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state-of-the-art high resolution, global and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management

38 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research Hadley Centre Scientific and Technological Objectives 1-3 Produce probabilistic predictions from seasonal to decadal & longer timescales through the use of ensembles, and use these to explore the related impacts Integrate additional processes in climate models to produce true Earth System models Develop higher resolution climate models to provide more regionally detailed climate predictions and better information on extreme events ENSEMBLES

39 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research Hadley Centre Scientific and Technological Objectives 4-6 Reduce uncertainty in climate predictions through increased understanding of climate processes and feedbacks and through evaluation and validation of models and techniques Increased application of climate predictions by a growing and increasingly diverse user community Increased availability of scientific knowledge and provision of relevant information related to the impacts of climate change, within the scientific community, and to stakeholders, policymakers and the public ENSEMBLES

40 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Research Themes RTNameCo-ordinators 0Project integration, management and promotionDave Griggs 1Development of the Ensemble Prediction SystemJames Murphy, Tim Palmer 2AProduction of seasonal to decadal hindcasts and climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1)Guy Brasseur, Jean-François Royer 2BProduction of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob Assessments (Model Engine Part 2) 3Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Jens Christensen, Model Ensembles for EuropeMarkku Rummukainen 4Understanding the processes governing climate Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut variabilityand change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events 5Independent comprehensive evaluation of the Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank ENSEMBLES simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses 6Assessments of impacts of climate changeAndy Morse, Colin Prentice 7Scenarios and Policy ImplicationsRichard Tol, Roberto Roson 8Dissemination, Education, and TrainingMartin Beniston, Christos Giannakopolous