1. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 Potential WP Participants (known absentees underlined): DJF, DISAT, FMI, FUB, LUND, NOA, PAS, SMHI, SYKE, UEA, UNIK, UREADMM ENSEMBLES Work Package 6.2 Parallel session, Monday 12 November 2007

2. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 WP 6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change Modelling behaviour of systems or activities in different environments developed, tested and applied under European conditions for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change. Task 6.2.a Response surfaces and impact thresholds Task 6.2.b Scenario impacts and risk assessment Task 6.2.c Evaluating the impacts of extreme events

3. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 Task 6.2.1: Preparation of impact models for scenario analysis (DJF, DISAT, FUB, SMHI, UREADMM) (Completed) Task 6.2.2: Collection of data for the calibration and testing of impact models and as reference data for model input (DISAT, FUB, ULUND, UREADMM) (Completed) Task 6.2.3: Design of sensitivity analyses based on existing climate projections and some initial performance tests (FUB, SYKE, ULUND, UNIK) (Completed) Task 6.2.4: Estimation of critical impacts thresholds for water resources based on historical drought and flood events (SMHI, UNIK) (Completed) Task 6.2.5: Development of models for understanding and evaluating the impacts of extremes. These models will operate within a probabilistic framework, incorporating where possible effects of adaptation and acclimatisation to climate change (FUB, NOA, UEA, ULUND) (Ongoing) Task 6.2.6: Analyses of arrival times of extremes based on long observed records (UEA) (Ongoing) Task 6.2.7: Development of a GIS environment within which impacts models will be developed and analyzed. (Completed) Task 6.2.8: Construction of impact response surfaces for selected impact models of crops, soil carbon and nitrogen, and water resources (DJF, DISAT, SMHI, SYKE, UNIK) (Ongoing) Task 6.2.9: Preliminary scenario impacts and risk assessment from available climate projections for selected models of crops, runoff, permafrost, soils (DJF, DISAT, FMI, SMHI, SYKE) (Completed) Task 6.2.10: Preliminary evaluation of the impacts of extreme events using selected impact models for crops, human health, forest fire, forest damage, intense precipitation, drought, wind and temperature extremes from available climate projections (DISAT, FMI, FUB, NOA, PAS, UEA, ULUND, UREADMM) (Ongoing) Task 6.2.11: Application of preliminary results from the Ensembles Prediction System to impact models for estimating risks of extremes and risks of impacts (All partners) (Ongoing) New Task 6.2.12: Compilation and analysis of final results and drafting of joint paper on the application of probabilistic climate projections for assessing risks of impacts in Europe (DJF, DISAT, FMI, SMHI, SYKE) New Task 6.2.13: Compilation of final model results of the impacts of climate extremes, analysis of the uncertainties in estimates, and drafting of a joint paper on the impacts of projected changes in climate extremes on climate-sensitive sectors in Europe (DISAT, FMI, FUB, NOA, PAS, UEA, ULUND, UREADMM) WP 6.2 Tasks: Progress to date

4. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 Deliverables (completed) Deliverable 6.2: First-phase impact models to predict damage to human activities, the environment and tropical annual crops from climate extremes: e.g. wind storm, drought, flood and heat stress Due Feb 2006; Delivered October 2006 (Month 26) (UEA and Partners) Deliverable 6.3: Calibrated and tested crop, forest, hydrology and energy impact models; baseline data and scenarios for constructing impact response surfaces Due Feb 2006; Delivered April 2006 (Month 20) (SYKE and Partners) Deliverable 6.7: Preliminary report on a comparative study of response surface and multiple scenario approaches to assessing risks of impacts using selected impact models Due Feb 2007 + 3 months; Delivered: Jul 2007 (Month 35) (SYKE and Partners) Deliverable 6.8: Preliminary report on changes in climate extremes and their relation to health, flood risk, agriculture, forest and property damage Due Feb 2007 + 3 months; Delivered: Jul 2007 (Month 35) (UEA and Partners) Deliverable 6.9: Report on an intercomparison study of modelled, Europe- wide forest fire risk for present day conditions Due Aug 2006; Delivered September 2006 (Month 25) (NOA and FMI)

5. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 Deliverables (work in progress) Deliverable 6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. Due Aug 2008 (Month 48) (D2B.28, joint deliverable with RT2B - SYKE and Partners) Deliverable 6.14: Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in assessing the risk of impacts in Europe. Due Feb 2009 (Month 54) (SYKE and Partners) Deliverable 6.15: Assessing the uncertainty in projected changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the following sectors: health, forestry, flood risk, property damage, agriculture. Due Aug 2008 (Month 48) (UEA and Partners)

6. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 Milestones (attained) Milestone 6.2: Completion of data collection for calibration and testing of impact models and as reference data for model data Due Aug 2005; Delivered Aug 2005 (Month 12) (UEA and Partners) Milestone 6.3: Preliminary definitions of impact thresholds for development of probabilistic impacts assessments, taking into account responses to mean and extreme perturbations Due Feb 2006; Delivered Apr 2006 (Month 20) (SYKE and Partners) Milestone 6.4: Completion of preparation of most impact models Due Feb 2006; Delivered Apr 2006 (Month 20) (SYKE and Partners) Milestone 6.6: Sensitivity analysis and construction of preliminary impact response surfaces for selected impact models Due Aug 2006; Delivered October 2006 (Month 26) (SYKE and Partners) Milestone 6.12: Work Package 6.2 meeting to report progress in applying probabilistic information to impact models and to agree on common approaches and reporting of results (location to be arranged) Due April 2007; Helsinki Meeting April 2007 (Month 32); Report November 2007 (Month 39) (SYKE, FMI and Partners)

7. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 Milestones (in sight) Milestone 6.13: Preparation of protocol for determining probabilistic information from the Ensembles Prediction System (RT 2B) and applying it to calibrated impact models (in line with Major milestones 6.1 and 6.2) Due Aug 2007 (Month 36); Delayed to Nov 2007 (Month 39) (WP6.2 and RT2B) Milestone 6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact models Due Feb 2008 + 6 months (Month 48) (SYKE and all Partners) Major Milestone 6.4 (original DoW): Completion of probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts, and impacts at seasonal to decadal timescales for the core activities: crops, water resources, forests, energy, insurance and human health Due Month 54 (WP6.2 and 6.3)

8. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 WP 6.2: Milestones & deliverables 6-monthly report Annual report

9. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 WP 6.2: Milestones & deliverables 6-monthly report Annual report First 18-month plan

10. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 WP 6.2: Milestones & deliverables 6-monthly report Annual report

11. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 WP 6.2: Milestones & deliverables Second 18-month plan 6-monthly report Annual report

12. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 WP 6.2: Milestones & deliverables 6-monthly report Annual report

13. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 WP 6.2: Milestones & deliverables 6-monthly report Annual report Third 18-month plan

14. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 WP 6.2: Milestones & deliverables 6-monthly report Annual report

15. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 WP 6.2: Milestones & deliverables 6-monthly report Annual report Final 24-month plan

16. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 Prague presentations 5 minutes reporting: Recent progress since Helsinki (status, not details!) Plans for the next reporting phase Your expected contributions to the deliverables and milestones in the Detailed Implementation Plan (DIP) Other points arising

17. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007

20. Follow-up to Helsinki Some points arising: GCM archive not available in April – has this been solved? Observational data from RT5 (1958- at 25 km spatial resolution) should be available from September – cf. M. Haylock presentation, 11 am, Wednesday WP6.2 data requests surveyed; main concern is the timing of data delivery RCM runs: deadline is December 2007; majority for 1950-2050; some run to 2100; weighting of RCM outputs – cf. J. Christensen presentation, 16.40, Tuesday; Parallel session, 13.30-15.00, Thursday Seasonality – representation in the response surfaces Non-stationarity – implications for model calibration Scaling – from model grid to larger scale (e.g. river basin)

21. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007 Deliverables (work in progress) Deliverable 6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. Due Aug 2008 (Month 48) (D2B.28, joint deliverable with RT2B - SYKE and Partners) Deliverable 6.14: Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in assessing the risk of impacts in Europe. Due Feb 2009 (Month 54) (SYKE and Partners) Deliverable 6.15: Assessing the uncertainty in projected changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the following sectors: health, forestry, flood risk, property damage, agriculture. Due Aug 2008 (Month 48) (UEA and Partners)

22. ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007