1. Global climate change: Scenarios and Impacts Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk

2. FOUR QUESTIONS Is global climate changing? Why is global climate changing? What impact is this having in Europe? How will climate change in the future?

3. This co-operative cluster of projects brings together European expertise in the fields of climate modelling, regional downscaling, statistics, and impacts analysis to explore future changes in extreme events in response to global warming.PRUDENCE will provide high-resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for Europe using regional climate models. PRUDENCE project summaryPRUDENCE project summarySTARDEX will provide improved downscaling methodologies for the construction of scenarios of changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. STARDEX project summarySTARDEX project summaryMICE uses information from climate models to explore future changes in extreme events across Europe in response to global warming. MICE project summary MICE project summary Last modified: 16 August 2002 MICE STARDEX PRUDENCE Project Web Sites: Contact Information Copyright information: the above photo montage was created in XaraX using copyright pictures from: © Collier County Florida Emergency Management and © Environment Agency. The three projects are supported by the European Commission under the Framework V Thematic Programme ”Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development” (EESD), 2002-2005. Scroll down for Project Summaries: follow the links above to Project Web Sites. Hit Counter Web Site designed and implemented by Tom Holt, © 2002 Comments and suggestions welcome: t.holt@uea.ac.uk t.holt@uea.ac.uk PRUDENCE STARDEX MICE http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/

4. FOUR QUESTIONS Is global climate changing? Why is global climate changing? What impact is this having in Europe? How will climate change in the future?

5. Patterns of Global Temperature Change © Climatic Research Unit

6. Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA) temperature over the last 1000 years © Climatic Research Unit

7. FOUR QUESTIONS Is global climate changing? Why is global climate changing? What impact is this having in Europe? How will climate change in the future?

9. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second assessment report 1998: –‘the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate’ Third assessment report 2001: –‘there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities’

11. FOUR QUESTIONS Is global climate changing? Why is global climate changing? What impact is this having in Europe? How will climate change in the future?

12. 1958-2000 trend in frost days Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

13. 1958-2000 trend in frost days Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing. Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX Athens February 2004

14. 1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days Scale is days per year. Red is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

15. Scale is days per year. Red is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX Western Europe August 2003 Property damage: US$ 13 bn Fatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France) 1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days

16. 1958-2000 trend in heavy summer (JJA) rain events Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

17. 1958-2000 trend in heavy summer rain events Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX Central and Eastern Europe August 2002 Fatalities: > 100 Economic losses: > US$18 bn Insured losses: > US$3 bn