1. Climate Futures for Tasmania: Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaption Options Nathan Bindoff et al. ACE CRC, DPIW, Hydro Tasmania,SES,BoM, GA, TIAR, TPAC, CSIRO MAR

2.  The Players  Key user questions  Research Activities  Downscaling and global signals  Tasmanian context  Research outcome and outputs  Resources Introduction

3. Key User Questions:Climate Change Water policy and legislation Water management and infrastructure Power Generation Reservoirs, winds Power Distribution (heat waves) Emergency planning Bushfires, floods Protection of high value assets From tourism Impacts on power and water dependent industry Agriculture Crops, wine, other horticulture, disease Sea level surges (from wind changes)

4. The Players

5. Research activities Fine scale climate projections Modelling water flows and reservoirs Key climate variables Planning, agriculture, utility sectors and environment Extreme events Changes in occurrence Consequence of change Eg drought, flood, frosts, heat waves Storms/winds Research Modules

6. Fine Scale Climate Projections What is downscaling CCAM – Cubic Conformal Atmosphere Model CSIRO MAR (John McGregor) Validation phase IPCC – models are used Interpolation of pre-existing IPCC scenarios

7. Climate models, and climate model credibility Observations 1980-2000 Mean Model 1980-2000

8. Projections of Future Changes in Climate Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable

9. Precipitation increases are very likely in high latitudes in 2090-2099 Decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions in 2090-2099 Figure SPM-6, TS-30, 10.9 Projections of Future Changes in Climate Tasmania

10. Example from South West Australia

11. The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002. The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI. Drought is increasing most places

12. AWBM Assumption: no change in land use Tasmania Water Catchment Models

13.  Factor of 1.0 represents no change in inflows  Factors <1.0 represents drying  Factors >1.0 represents wetter  Great Lake factors well below 1.0 and thus drying predicted  Others have drier Summers/Autumns and wetter Winters Example: Hydro Tasmania Inflow Prediction Most important lake

14. Key Outputs  Outputs  Assessments of climate conditions to 2100  Reports on future projections  Estimates of uncertainties, and mean projections  Input to operational models (Hydro, DPIW, TIAR)  Model outputs more generally.  Communication  Engagement from start, users and researchers  Liason officer  Governance model

15. Resources  5 new postdoctoral fellows, 1 liason officer, project management team  Engagement of skills and expertise from the consortia members, including Tasmanian State Departments and business enterprises  $8 million over three years (cash + inkind)  Data Management (TPAC Digital Library)  Potential Collaborations  CERF funded projects  Other initiatives (eg SEACI).

16. Calibration

17. Spatial patterns: greater warming over land, greater warming at high latitudes Albedo changes in high latitudes, less snow and sea-ice. Figure SPM-5, TS-28, 10.8, 10.28 Projections of Future Changes in Climate High Emissions Low Emissions

19. Scenarios for Extremes- frost, heat waves, growth

20. National Action Plan (NAP) Region: 14 surface water hydrological models were developed. 1.Models enable generation of flow data for scenarios: Scenario 1: Natural flow Scenario 2: Current flow Scenario 3 : Current flow with EWR provisions. 2.Calculation of indices for catchment flow characteristics.

21. Hydrologic modelling Flow generation Current models are simple rainfall-runoff water balance models (AWBM) Platform for incorporating landuse impacts Surface-groundwater interaction