1. Assessing changes in mean climate, extreme events and their impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean environment and society C. Giannakopoulos 1, M. Petrakis 1, D. Founda 1 and A. Karali 1 1 Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Greece

2. Method  Within the framework of the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project several RCMs runs have been produced at a high horizontal resolution (25km).  The control run represents the base period 1961-1990 and is used here as reference for comparison with future predictions for periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 based on A1B SRES scenario  Aim is to examine climatic changes in both mean (temperature, precipitation) and extremes (number of heatwave days, number of tropical nights, drought length) in order to identify areas that are likely to undergo large amount of climate change

3. Annual maximum temperature  The 2021-2050 simulation shows an increase of about 1.5-2 o C inland, while for the 2071-2100 the increase is 3.5- 5 o C. Coastal areas milder increases.  Areas in central Turkey are more vulnerable.

4. Winter Maximum temperatures  In winter, maximum temperatures increase by 1.5-2 o C inland for the 2021-2050 simulation and 3-4.5 o C for 2071-2100  Continental parts of Greece will have a more intense heating during 2021-2050 whereas central and southern Turkey will have equally intense heating during both periods

5. Summer Maximum temperatures  In summer, maximum temperatures increase by 1.8-2.2 o Cfor the 2021-2050 simulation and by 4-6 o Cfor 2071-2100  Greece and North Africa will have a more intense heating during 2021-2050 whereas Turkey will have equally intense heating during both periods

6. No of days with Tmax>35 o C  The 2021-2050 simulation shows that there will be up to 25 more days with Tmax>35 o C  The 2071-2100 simulation shows that up to 60 more days will exist with Tmax>35 o C  These changes are more pronounced over North Africa and central parts of Turkey

7. Annual Minimum Temperature  an increase of the higher Average Annual Tmin of about 1.4- 1.8 o C for the 2021-2050 simulation  More intense heating for continental Greece, North Africa in the first period, equally intense for central Turkey in both periods

8. Winter Minimum Temperature  Winter Tmin rises by 1-2 o C for the 2021-2050 and by 3-4 o C for the 2071-2100 simulation

9. Summer Minimum Temperature  Around 2 o C increase for inland areas of Greece, North Africa, Turkey for the 2021-2050 simulation  4-5 o C increases in same areas for 2071-2100 but bigger values in central-east Turkey

10. No of tropical nights : Tmin>20 o C  Tropical nights increase more in costal areas  1-2 more months with warm nights around the islands and North Africa for 2021-2050  2.5-3 more months with warm nights around the islands and North Africa for 2071-2100

11. No of frost nights : Tmin>0 o C Frost nights decrease inland by 15-20 days for 2021-2050 and by 30-40 days for 2071-2100

12. Winter total rainfall  For 2021-2050, precipitation decreases by 20% below the 34o latitude and less in Eastern parts of Greece. Increases of more than 10% in the west parts of Greece and Turkey  For 2071-2100 decreases below 40 o latitude and increases above and in central Turkey

13. Dry spell length  For 2021-2050 increases of about 30% in continental lowland regions are apparent  For 2071-2100 the increase varies between 20% in the southern part and 50% in the northern part.

14. Changes in energy requirements changes in the number of days needed to cool more than 5 o C(left plot): in North Africa more than 2 additional months of cooling will be required whereas over parts of Eastern Greece, Western Turkey and Cyprus more than 1 additional month will be needed. the number of days that require warming more than 5 o C (right plot): Decreases vary from about 1-2 months inland and the islands in the North Aegean sea to just 2 weeks in the islands of the South Aegean sea.

15. ENSEMBLES Final Symposium, 17-19 November 2009, Met Office Exeter The Fire Weather Index (FWI) The Fire Weather Index (FWI)  We assess the risk of fire due to meteorological conditions using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI).  The FWI is a numerical rating of fire’s intensity and is used to estimate the difficulty of fire control.  FWI requires the calculation of daily Maximum Temperature, Relative Humidity, Wind, and Precipitation.  Although FWI has been developed for Canadian forests, several studies have shown its suitability for the Mediterranean basin

16. ENSEMBLES Final Symposium, 17-19 November 2009, Met Office Exeter What can FWI tell us about fire danger ?  Mean daily no of fires in relation to FWI for Attica region  Threshold for daily fire occurrence around FWI=15  Low fire risk for FWI < 15

17. No of days with extreme fire risk  for the 2021-2050 simulation, Eastern parts of Greece, North Africa and central Turkey will have 20 additional days of extreme fire risk  for the 2071-2100 simulation, the same areas will experience 1-2 months additional days with extreme fire risk

18. Concluding Remarks Maximum and minimum temperatures increase more in continental areas. The same is true for the number of very hot days. Conversely, warm/tropical nights increase more in coastal/island areas. In 2021-2050 winter precipitation decreases nearly everywhere except in West coast of Greece and Turkey where increases are evident. In 2071-2100 decrease in winter precipitation is apparnt everywhere. Energy requirements decrease in winter but increase in summer together with fire risk.