1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Projection of future climate change - The Baltic sea region RCM-simulated temperature change in ºC for winter (December, January, February) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 using A2 emissions scenario. GCM boundary conditions from a Hadley Centre global atmospheric model) GCM boundary conditions from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg HIRHAM Model (Danish Meteorological Institute regional climate model) RCAO Model (Rossby Centre regional coupled Atmosphere-Ocean model)

2. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 As there is a distinct southwest to northeast gradient in the geographical distribution of average model-simulated temperature change, four sub- regions were distinguished. The four sub-regions employed for summarizing the probability intervals of temperature and precipitation change. SEA SW LAND NE LAND SW SEA NE Projection on GCMs - The Baltic sea region

3. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Seasonal GCM-driven 95% probability intervals of temperature change (vertical bars) from 1961–1990 to 2070–2099 for four sub-regions. A1FI (red), A2 (black), B2 (blue), and B1 (green) scenarios. The dot in the centre of the bar denotes the median of the interval. WINTERSUMMER AUTUMN SPRING SEA SW LAND NE LAND SW SEA NE Projection on GCMs - The Baltic sea region

4. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Seasonal GCM-driven 95% probability intervals of precipitation change (vertical bars) from 1961–1990 to 2070–2099 for four sub-regions. A1FI (red), A2 (black), B2 (blue), and B1 (green) scenarios. The dot in the centre of the bar denotes the median of the interval. SEA SW LAND NE LAND SW SEA NE Projection on GCMs - The Baltic sea region WINTERSUMMER AUTUMN SPRING

5. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Changes in winter (December, January, February) area mean temperature and precipitation SEA SW LAND NE LAND SW SEA NE Projection on RCMs - The Baltic sea region O - seven RCMs from the common PRUDENCE experiment based on the same GCM (HadAM3H). X - other regional downscaling experiments from PRUDENCE, which included different driving GCMs,

6. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Changes in summer (June, July, August) area mean temperature and precipitation SEA SW LAND NE LAND SW SEA NE Projection on RCMs - The Baltic sea region O - seven RCMs from the common PRUDENCE experiment based on the same GCM (HadAM3H). X - other regional downscaling experiments from PRUDENCE, which included different driving GCMs,

7. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Key Features of Climate Scenarios for Europe - Weather Extremes The scenarios do not explicitly quantify changes in daily weather extremes. It is likely that intense precipitation events will increase in frequency, especially in winter, However, it is very likely that frequencies and intensities of summer heat waves will increase throughout Europe; It is likely that summer drought risk will increase in central and southern Europe; and possible that gale frequencies will increase.

8. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Projected change of extremes for the Baltic Sea region An increase in daily maximum temperature during summer. The amount of this increase ranges from 3°C up to more than 10°C among different model simulations for the Baltic Sea basin. Extremely low temperatures during winter are simulated to increase by 4°C to 12°C by the late 21st century, depending on the model. Maximum temperature Minimum temperature Extreme precipitation Extreme precipitation events generally show an increase in winter, roughly in proportion to the increase in average precipitation.

9. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 In line with the changes in temperature, projections show a future decrease in mean annual maximum snow depth everywhere over Northern Europe. This decrease is smaller in the northern parts of the Baltic Sea basin than in the southern areas. Projected change of extremes for the Baltic Sea region Snow cover In areas such as Denmark, Germany, Poland, and most parts of the Baltic countries, where the present-climate snow depth is small, the scenario simulations show a complete vanishing of snow. The simulations also show a decrease in the duration of the snow season.

10. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Regional model simulations of wind speed vary considerably depending on the GCM simulation used for boundary driving conditions. There is decrease of mean annual wind speed between −4% to 4% ( up to 8% - depend on model) over the Baltic Sea basin for both A2 and B2 scenarios. The largest increases in wind speed occur in winter and early spring, up to 20% for the A2 scenario and 10% for the B2 scenario. There is an opposite trend in summer, showing a decrease in wind speed over most of the basin. Wind speed Projected change of extremes for the Baltic Sea region

11. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Impact of climate change - Europe Altered natural ecosystems, with loss of some habitats and potential loss of species Climate changes as characterized by the scenarios, if not adequately responded to through effective adaptation and policy development, would lead in Europe to: Increased productivity of northern commercial forests but reductions in the south Positive effects on agriculture in the north but broadly negative effects in the south Altered fisheries potential Increased property damage Upward shift of biotic zones and snowlines in mountain regions. Changing tourist potential A range of human health implications Increased risk of flooding, erosion, wetland loss, and degradation in coastal zones

12. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Sources Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Used sources and web pages & further reading: Climate change 2001: Mitigation http://www.baltex-research.eu Climate change 2001: The Scientific Basis. IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001 http://www.ipcc.ch Climate Change in the Baltic Sea area, Draft HELCOM Thematic Assessment in 2006 http://helcom.navigo.fi Klein-Tank A., Changing Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe’s Climate of the 20th Century http://eca.knmi.nl