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DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction   DEMETER Noel Keenlyside,

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Presentation on theme: "DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction   DEMETER Noel Keenlyside,"— Presentation transcript:

1 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction   DEMETER Noel Keenlyside, Institute für Meereskunde, University of Kiel Tim Palmer, Renate Hagedorn, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

2 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Predictability

3 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003  Perturbed parameters  Stochastic physics  Nonlinear dynamical systems for subgrid-motions (e.g. 2D cloud-resolving models, cellular automata)  Singular vectors  Multi-model ensembles Possible approaches to representation of model error

4 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Multi-model ensemble system DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models Hindcast production for: 1987-1999 (1958-2001) 9 member ensembles ERA-40 initial conditions SST and wind perturbations 4 start dates per year 6 months hindcasts

5 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Conceptual background (deterministic view) SST, Tropics, 1987 verification SST, Tropics, 1988 MSLP, Tropics, 1988

6 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 ACC: SST Tropics

7 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Conceptual background (probabilistic view) SST, Tropics, 1987 MSLP, Tropics, 1988

8 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Reliability: 2m-Temp.>0 0.049 0.902 0.147 0.058 0.904 0.151 0.099 0.923 0.176 -0.007 0.886 0.107 -0.055 0.838 0.107 0.068 0.903 0.164 0.222 0.994 0.227 0.075 0.921 0.153

9 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Reliability: 2m-Temp.>0 single-model (54 members) multi-model 0.222 0.994 0.227 0.170 0.959 0.211

10 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Reliability: 2m-Temp.>0 -0.099 0.859 0.041 -0.126 0.850 0.024 -0.016 0.925 0.059 -0.149 0.816 0.035 -0.099 0.861 0.040 -0.075 0.891 0.034 0.061 0.983 0.078 -0.094 0.882 0.024

11 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Impact of ensemble size

12 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Impact of number of models (members) Multi-model realizations Single-model realizations

13 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 SOI-Index: 1 month lead (DJF) Multi- Model CERFACSCNRMECMWFINGVLODYCMPIUKMO Correlation0.940.93 0.840.920.950.860.94 RPSS0.700.670.620.440.630.740.380.74

14 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 NAO-Index: 1 month lead (DJF) Multi- Model CERFACSCNRMECMWFINGVLODYCMPIUKMO Correlation0.680.480.440.430.370.490.230.31 RPSS0.240.150.170.210.070.190.080.09

15 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Tropical Cyclone Frequency Linear correlation of the tropical cyclone frequency By F. Vitart (F.Vitart@ecmwf.int) 1 st May 1 st August 1 st November

16 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Verification Bias Indices Deterministic Scores Probabilistic Scores Single vs. multi-model http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/verification 54-single vs. multi-model Ocean diagnostics

17 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Verification Start date Lead time Parameter Model

18 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 http://data.ecmwf.int/data Retrieve NetCDF Period# Years ECMWF1958 - 200144 CNRM1958 – 200144 UKMO1959 – 200143 MPI1969 – 200133 INGV1973 – 200129 LODYC1974 – 200128 CERFACS1980 – 200122

19 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 End-user modelling DEMETER ensemble hindcasts input for  health application (malaria model)  agriculture application (crop model) Basic idea:  explore utility of DEMETER hindcasts  give range of uncertainty Main problems:  sparse data to validate malaria in Africa  need of downscaled data

20 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Multi- Model CERFACSCNRMECMWFINGVLODYCMPIUKMO Correlation0.500.510.520.340.350.290.030.36 RPSS0.300.23 0.240.270.26-0.25-0.01 Malaria predictions (0º,35ºE) ERA-40 Multi-Model: Terciles Ens-mean

21 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Crop growth monitoring system Crop Growth Indicator Jan Feb Aug Meteo data Yield Statistical model Meteo data ERA / DEMETER data

22 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Wheat yield predictions using downscaled DEMETER multi-model data France Germany Denmark Greece

23 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Validation of seasonal forecast presented at European Research FP6-conference, Brussels 2002 Risk of cold / warm winter 2002/03Risk of wet / dry winter 2002/03

24 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Summary DEMETER multi-model hindcasts data set:  22-44 years available for 7 models (1958 – 2001)  Extensive diagnostics and data publicly available Applications:  end-to-end systems for seasonal prediction -> actual value  feasibility of skilful predictions: malaria incidence, crop yield Multi-model improves over single-model ensembles:  main improvement due to reliability  skill also improves because of increase in resolution The future:  EU-funded ENSEMBLES project (starts April 2004)

25 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Potential Economic Value Anom > 0.43  Anom > 0

26 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 The DEMETER methodology is also being used to study the changing risk of flood as a result of man's impact on climate ControlGreenhouse enhanced risk of flooding Palmer & Räisänen, Nature (2002)

27 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 tourism energy Towards the new FP-6 Project ENSEMBLES agriculture aid relief health Integrated prediction system for time scales from seasons to decades and beyond Greater diversity of applications Incorporation of the whole earth system Assessment of reliability of model system used for scenario runs

28 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 Tropical Cyclone Frequency Tropical storm number for the tropical Atlantic (JJASO) By F. Vitart (F.Vitart@ecmwf.int) Verification Multi-model

29 DEMETER Taiwan, 25-27 October 2003 DEMETER MM-Results: NAO-Index (DJF) 7 models: 1987-1999 (13y) 3 models: 1959 - 2001 (43y)

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