Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock University of Georgia Florida Cattlemen’s Institute January 26, 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock University of Georgia Florida Cattlemen’s Institute January 26, 2012

Overview Recent Trends Outlook for 2012 and beyond Marketing Alternatives

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 2010

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

5 THINGS SHAPING MARKETS TODAY AND FOR 2012

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS 2011 Beef Cow Slaughter Ca. 3.8 million

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

Source: DTN/Telvent

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS

OUTLOOK FOR 2012 AND BEYOND What can we expect this year and next?

BEEF COWS THAT HAVE CALVED JANUARY 1, 2011 (1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

Declining cow numbers reflect lack of profitability in the sector

Meat supplies were slightly larger in 2011 but will be lower in 2012 Source: USDA-WASDE, January 2012 Report

Tight Stocks Since 1995 in Feed Crops Despite Large Crops US Corn Supply and Demand

Economic (Demand)Outlook Positives – Low interest rates – Little inflation pressure – Generally strong corporate balance sheets – Recently improving hiring prospects Negatives – Uncertainty over European situation – Federal debt/deficit – Political uncertainty

Projected Prices 2011 and Beyond Source: USDA, LMIC and UGA

INPUTS, PROFITS AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR 2012

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Don’t look for fertilizer prices to go down

Feedstuffs will be higher also

Cost of production will be higher but should be manageable for most Range of Expected Prices

There are opportunities to manage risk

Beef Cattle Outlook Summary Fewer cows = less beef -less competing meats +slowly improving economy Higher Prices in 2011

Beef Cattle Outlook R. Curt Lacy, Ph.D. Extension Economist-Livestock

Can we produce enough beef?

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