Demography – the study of the statistical characteristics of a population’s births, deaths, age/sex structure, spatial distribution, etc. Demographics.

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Presentation transcript:

Demography – the study of the statistical characteristics of a population’s births, deaths, age/sex structure, spatial distribution, etc. Demographics – the statistical characteristics of a population’s births, deaths, age/sex structure, spatial distribution, etc. Crude Birth Rate (CBR) - The total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive in the society. The CBR of 20 means 20 babies are born over a one year period for every 1000 people in the country Crude Death Rate (CDR) - the total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people alive in the society. A CDR of 40 means 40 people of any age died over a one year period for every 1000 people in the country Natural Increase Rate (NIR) - The percentage by which a population grows (excluding migration) in a year. Calculation: [(CBR-CDR)/1000]100 = %NIR If the NIR is negative the population is decreasing. Demographic Transition Model

... a theory of population change over time. Seeks to explain population increases and decreases through variations in the birth rate and death rate. Based on observations of historical changes in parts of the economically more developed world (EMDW). A major criticism is its failure to take into account changes due to migration.

Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 CBR:very high, varied +33 of 1000 CDR:very high, varied +33 of 1000 NIR:no long term increase Life style: hunting & gathering and early farming practices (1 st Agricultural Revolution) Historical Period: ≈ 8,000 BCE (modern man) – 1750 CE Cause of Stage 2: Industrial Revolution - humans perfect farming methods and advent of varied technologies NIR

Demographic Transition Model NIR Stage 2 CBR: very high, steady ≈40 per1000 CDR: rapidly decline, <40 down to 15 per1000 NIR: very high, sharp increase at start then slows Life style: Agrarian(farmers); ability to cultivate reliable food source as well as medical revolution causes population explosion Historical Period: 1750 CE – present All countries today are in at least Stage 2 through influence of MDCs Cause of Stage 3: Cultural/Social changes resulting in lower CBR and subsequent Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Demographic Transition Model Stage 3 CBR: rapidly decline, <40 down to 15 per1000 CDR: slow decline, <15 down to 5 per1000 NIR: steady decline toward ZPG Life style: Urbanization, secondary and tertiary sector jobs prevalent. NEED for large family declines with change in economic structure and medical advances reducing IMR (culture mind-set changes) Historical Period: 20 th century – present Cause of Stage 4: Cultural/Social change which caused lower CBR and Total Fertility Rate (TFR) creates Zero Population Growth (ZPG).

Demographic Transition Model Stage 4 CBR: very low, <10 per1000 CDR: very low, <10 per1000 NIR: ZPG; TFR of 2.1 Life style: Urbanized – changing family structure, changing role of women, birth control, etc. Historical Period: 1990s – present Stage 5?: No definition of what a stage 5 might be as this is a model based on historical retrospect…

Demographic Transition Model... a theory of population change over time. Seeks to explain population increases and decreases through variations in the birth rate and death rate. Based on observations of historical changes in parts of the economically more developed world (EMDW). A major criticism is its failure to take into account changes due to migration.