Prince William Chamber of Commerce October 13, 2011 What Kind of Recovery Has It Been and the Outlook for the Economy’s Future Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight.

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Presentation transcript:

Prince William Chamber of Commerce October 13, 2011 What Kind of Recovery Has It Been and the Outlook for the Economy’s Future Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University

Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

Quarterly GDP July 2011 Series Revisions vs. Original >> FORECAST > > > Data through to Q are original and revised from BEA. Estimates for Q and beyond are from Global Insight, pre-July and post July BEA revisions

L.I. C.I. U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov 2006 – Aug 2011 RECESSION >

U.S. Leading Index

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Sep = M Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA

U.S. Job Change by Sector Sept 2010 – Sept 2011 (000s)Total = 1,490 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

U.S. Job Change by Sector Aug 2011 – Sept 2011 (000s)Total = 103 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average 414 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted Aug = 9.1 % GI FCST 11 – – – – – – 6.8

Consumer Prices Forecast > > > > > > % Source: BLS, Global Insight

Interest Rates Forecast > > > > > >

Consumer Confidence 100 Present Situation Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Housing Trends New & Existing Home Sales Existing (left scale) New (Right Scale) (000s)

Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Forecast > > > > >

U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2013 % Forecast > > > > > >

Economic Trends In The Washington Metropolitan Area

15 Largest Metro Areas 2010 GRP ($ Bil Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Metro Areas GRP Percent Change % Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Share of Washington Area Economy Northern Virginia Suburban MD D.C. % of GRP

Population in the Washington MSA By Sub-State Area, s Northern VA D.C. Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis Suburban MD

Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

Thousands Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area Avg. = 36,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Aug 2010 – Aug 2011 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 100 Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Aug 2010 – Aug 2011 Northern Virginia (000s) Total +600 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Aug 2010 – Aug 2011 (000s) Washington +100 Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

10.9 – DC 9.1 – U.S. 6.4 – SMD 6.1 – MSA NVA Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate August 2011 % US 9.1 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted 6.1

Housing Market Trends

Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through September Month Moving Average Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Active Listings Per Sale September Each Year LDN PG FFXARL DC MONT PW Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Median House Sales Price Washington MSA Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis $315,200 Sept 2011

Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month

Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month

Washington MSA Building Permits 2000 – 2011, 3-Month Mvg Avg Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Regional Analysis

Near-Term Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 8/26/11

% Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP Washington U.S.

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