Changing Demographics in Texas 2011 Texas Labor Management Conference June 22, 2011 San Antonio, TX Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at The University of Texas at San Antonio. Steve White is a Senior Research Associate with the Texas State Data Center.

Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, 1850-2010 As some would say, ever since Texas allowed the United States to join us, we have grown faster than the nation as a whole.

Growing States, 2000-2010 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 Population* 2010 Numerical Change 2000-2010 Percent United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6% Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010. 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. This trend continued through the 2010 Census. In fact, between 2000 and 2010, Texas added 15.7 percent of the Nation’s total population growth. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

Population Change of Fast Growing States between 2000 and 2010 Between 2000 and 2010, Texas added almost one million more people than California, our most populous state. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009 Percent Change Due to Year* Population Numerical Change Natural Increase Net Migration Percent 1950 7,711,194 -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.09 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.26 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.42 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.15 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.35 2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33 * All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 is for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. Where did this growth come from? There are two sources. Natural Increase, which is the excess of births over deaths, and Net Migration which is the difference between in-migrants and out-migrants. Most recently, natural increase and migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth.

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009 Migration comes from two sources: domestic (or state-to-state) and international. International migration tends to be steady over the short term. But domestic migration is highly sensitive to the economy and can fluctuate significantly from year-to-year. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates

Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity 52% of all migrants were international Migration can impact the racial-ethnic composition of a population. Here we see that domestic migrants were 44 percent White (or Anglo) while only 24 percent of international migrants were Anglo. Between 2000 and 2009, 52 percent of all migrants to Texas were international. (848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants) Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau

Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population When we look at where Domestic migrants settled, we find that counties with net migration tend to be the large urban areas of Texas. The exceptions were Dallas and Harris which experienced net outmigration between 2000 and 2008. It is like that some of this outmigration was movement to nearby suburban counties. Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population When International migration is examined, we see a similar pattern of people settling in large urban counties. However, for Dallas and Harris counties, international migration was positive. In fact, this migration was large enough to offset the domestic outmigration in Dallas and Harris counties. This resulted in an overall positive migration rate. Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, The State’s Hispanic population continues to grow. It increased from 32 percent in 2000 to 38 percent in 2010. This growth is due to both migration and natural increase. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Compared to the Anglo population, the Hispanic population in Texas is relatively young. Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009

Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 When we examine the population pyramids separately, we see that Anglos have a ‘bee hive’ shape which is characteristic of an aging population. Hispanics and Blacks have a bottom heavy pyramid. This indicates a young population that will provide a sizeable labor force in the future. Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009

Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2009 This shows the age structure of Anglos and Hispanics in 2009. Again, we see almost opposite age distributions. Hispanics make up more than half of the under 5 years age group while Anglos comprise almost 70 percent of the 65 and older age group.

Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2009 The age structure is not the only thing that distinguishes the Anglo and Hispanic populations of Texas. Here we see that Hispanics tend to have lower educational attainment levels. This differential could have consequences for the future workforce of Texas. Source: American Community Survey, 2009

Total Population by County, 2010 With the recent Census data, we find a continuation of past growth trends. Large metro areas and parts of the Texas-Mexico border contain the bulk of the Texas population. As in the past, the counties west of I-35 tend to be sparsely populated. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010 We see that during the last decade, 175 counties gained population while 79 counties lost population. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010 Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period This map show population gains and losses as percentages. We find that counties around Dallas and Harris counties have some of the highest growth rates. This is consistent with the idea that some of the domestic outmigration from Dallas and Harris counties was to surrounding suburban counties. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040 When we apply these trends to the future, it appears that Texas will continue to grow. A key will be how much migration occurs. But, even with no net inmigration, the dashed line at the bottom shows we will continue to grow by natural increase. Year Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040 Along with this growth, we will also continue to diversify our population. Based on the most likely migration scenario, it is expected that the number of Hispanics will exceed non-Hispanics by 2015. Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario

Projected population by county, Texas, 2040 When we look at where this growth is expected, we see the familiar pattern – the large metro areas and along the Texas-Mexico border. Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 population projections. Migration scenario 2 (2000-2007).

Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040 Here the projected growth is shown as a percentage. Many of the rural counties west of I-35 are expected to lose population.

Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009 We see here that income levels tend to highest in the high growth counties. An exception is the border area. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009 In fact, some of the large and growing border counties have the State’s highest poverty rates. A continuation of this trend could lead to very large numbers of poor children in some of the State’s largest counties. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

Texas Business-Cycle Index In spite of some high poverty percentages, the Texas economy is relatively strong. Except for periods of national recession, the Texas business cycle has shown a positive trend.

Texas Total Nonfarm Employment Quarterly Growth Texas also has had strong employment during periods of economic expansion. Even in the most recent recession, our job loss was not as great as that for the U.S. We also have rebounded more robustly than the U.S.

Texas and U.S. Unemployment Rate In the past, our unemployment rate has exceeded that of the U.S. With the last recession, our rate dropped below the U.S. rate and continued to stay below it.

Median Income by Age in the United States, 2009 For those who are employed, median income typically peaks between 45-54 years. After 55, it begins to drop. If you are less than 54, this is something to look forward to. For the rest of us, it’s just a fond memory.

Numbers of Texas Inmigrants and Outmigrants Age 25 Years or Older by Educational Attainment, 2009 This shows the education levels of those who moved into Texas and out of Texas between 2008 and 2009. With all education levels, we had net inmigration. When we look at college and beyond, this is a good thing for our workforce. But, we also had large gains of people with less than a high school diploma.

Average Texas Annual Occupational Earnings in Constant 2006 Dollars by Preferred Education for Employed Persons by Standard Occupational Classification, 1997 & 2006 This chart shows that earnings increase with education. It also shows that between 1997 and 2006, the rewards to human capital were flat for High School but grew significantly for those with advanced degrees. This suggests a growing demand for a more highly educated workforce.

Texas employment by industrial sector, 2008 In 2008, Health Care, Retail, Education, and Manufacturing were the four largest industries in Texas. Source: Texas Workforce Commission, www.tracer2.com

Projected percent employment growth by industry in Texas between, 2008-2018 It is expected that Health Care and Educational Services will continue to be important growth engines in the Texas economy. At the same time, manufacturing is expected to decline. This suggests tomorrow’s opportunities will be different than yesterday’s opportunities. Source: Texas Workforce Commission, www.tracer2.com

Texas employment by occupation, 2008 In 2008, Office Support, Sales, Food Preparation, and Management were the four largest occupational groups in Texas. Source: Texas Workforce Commission, www.tracer2.com

Projected percent employment growth by occupation in Texas between, 2008-2018 As for projected growth, Health Care and Education are expected to be the fastest growing occupations. Again, this suggests a continuing trend where health and education displace traditional jobs such as manufacturing. Source: Texas Workforce Commission, www.tracer2.com

Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders, and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040* A few years back, I was part of the Texas Challenge team that looked at Texas in the 21st century. We projected some of our current trends onto the future. In the pie charts, we see that non-Anglos are expected to dominate both the population and the labor force in the 21st century.

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 When we projected education differentials, we saw a future where our workforce could be less educated than today. We found the potential for an increasing share of low education levels and a decline in the share of college and beyond.

Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040* (in 2000 Dollars) One effect of a less educated population would be lower income levels.

Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040* But, the future doesn’t need to be all doom and gloom. Closing the existing education gaps could lead to a more prosperous Texas. Here we see that Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures substantially increase as the education gap between Anglos and non-Anglos closes.

Summary Summary

Conclusions 1.Population growth has been a part of Texas’ history. Population and economic trends favor a continuing expansion of the Texas labor force. Higher education levels bring more earnings and greater opportunities. There continue to be significant gaps between the educational attainment levels of Anglos and non-Anglos. We don’t know whether this trend will persist in the future. But for those of us who believe that an educated workforce is a key to Texas’ future, it should be a cause for concern. Conclusions

25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more) Demographic Highlights TEXAS is: big.  The population of Texas is the second largest in the United States, exceeding 25 million people in 2010.7   young.  Approximately 28% of Texas’ population is under 18 and only 10% of the population is older than 65 years.1  Webb County in Texas, has the youngest population in the U.S. with children younger than 5 comprising 12.8% of the population.8 embracing of culture and diversity.  Approximately 9 million or 38% of Texans are of Hispanic descent,  2.8 million or 12% are African Americans, and 1 million or 4% are other (non-Anglo mainly of Asian descent).1  In about a decade, it is expected that Texas’ population will have more persons of Hispanic descent than any other racial or ethnic group.4 a desired place to live and work.  Net in-migration to Texas accounts for almost half of the population growth in recent years.1 More than 171,900 college graduates moved into Texas each year between 2006 and 2008, placing Texas as 2nd in the Nation by this measure. urban. Texas has three of the top 10 largest cities in the Nation.3 Several of the metropolitan areas in Texas are among the most rapidly growing in the Nation.5 The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to ensuring that our policy makers, state and local government agencies, businesses, and the general public have ready access to information about our greatest asset: our people. Our mission is to help our constituents to understand the population characteristics and trends that are relevant to their areas of responsibility and interest and to present that information in a way that is easily understood. Toward this end, we are working to craft products and informational interfaces that will target the informational needs of our constituents. We are also very committed to providing timely responses to our constituents specific informational needs. This slide provides a number of relevant demographic facts about our State’s greatest asset. Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2.  U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections; 5. U.S. Census Bureau,  Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more) Demographic Highlights TEXAS is: rural. Texas is the second largest state in the Nation in terms of square miles (268,601) and approximately 17% of the population lives in rural areas.1  a working state. Texas has a civilian labor force of more than twelve million workers and an unemployment rate lower than in most States.6 family oriented.  Texas ranks 3rd among states for the percent of households which are married-couple families with children (24.4%).2   multigenerational.  Texas ranks 3rd among states for percent of households which are multigenerational (4.5%).2 growing – fast.   Texas gained more population than any other state in the last estimate year (between 2000 and 2010), adding 4,293,741 people.7   Among cities over 100,000 population in the U.S., 4 of the 10 fastest growing areas are in Texas (2007-2008 change).7   The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to ensuring that our policy makers, state and local government agencies, businesses, and the general public have ready access to information about our greatest asset: our people. Our mission is to help our constituents to understand the population characteristics and trends that are relevant to their areas of responsibility and interest and to present that information in a way that is easily understood. Toward this end, we are working to craft products and informational interfaces that will target the informational needs of our constituents. We are also very committed to providing timely responses to our constituents specific informational needs. This slide provides a number of relevant demographic facts about our State’s greatest asset. Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2.  U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections; 5. U.S. Census Bureau,  Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.