Electing the President, 2004 Matthew Dowd Chief Campaign Strategist, Bush Campaign

Electing the President, 2004 Learning from 2000, Preparing for 2004: 1. Started Planning Immediately after Approached 2004 Differently (than 2000) a. Focus: Motivation over Persuasion 3. Person to Person Contact (Rather than Phone-Banking) 2

Electing the President, 2004 Motivation and Persuasion: 1. Swing Voters: Not many Left in US, Most Voters have Made Up Their Mind 2. Motivation and Persuasion: Became Equal in Motivation and Persuasion: Split Time in

Electing the President, 2004 Challenges in 2004: 1. Challenger versus Incumbency a. Incumbents: more susceptible to natural conditions 2. Rise of the Internet a. changing how people interact, how people seek information b. Howard Dean: Net-roots fundraising 3. Research: 4

Electing the President, 2004 Core Campaign Goal: 3 percent Bush got 48% of the vote in Goal: how does the campaign get to 51% (add 3 points)? Where will the campaign picked up 3 percent? 1. Women 2. Men (deepen Loyalty) 3. Latinos 4. More Republicans 5. African Americans 5

Electing the President, 2004 Media Strategy: Paid versus Unpaid (Free) Strategic Assumptions: Democratic Nominee: 1. Democratic nominee: Quickly chosen 2. Democratic nominee: not highly vetted (primaries were too short) a. John Kerry: not nationally vetted. Strategy: Have Republicans tell Kerry’s Story Focus on the question of credibility. 6

Electing the President, 2004 Public opinion and the Campaign Approval Rating versus Right/Wrong Track Approval rating matters, right or wrong track does not (unless the country is way off track). a. Reelection: people want change (but only if your approval is below 40%) b. Incumbency: it only hurts if your promos and 40% President Bush and Approval Rating : Bush is a middle ground in terms of approval. He was at risk for defeat. Strategy: Bush Reelection Focus on establishing a sharp contrast between Bush and Kerry: 7

Electing the President, 2004 Strategy: Bush Reelection: Bush versus Kerry Kerry and Credibility 1. Needs a problematize Kerry’s credibility a. make it so even if Kerry attacks Bush people not believe Kerry ( because of his lack of credibility). b. Undermine Kerry’s ability to make credible arguments against Bush. c. Is this going negative? 8

Electing the President, 2004 Values and Presidential Campaigns Presidential campaigns are always about values. Values Question: 1. Which candidate supports your values? 2. How do campaigns communicate values? 9

Electing the President, 2004 Did Kerry Lose Because of Same Sex Amendments? Bush was reelected and 11 states passed amendments banning same sex marriage.

Electing the President, 2004 Campaigns Strategy: Field Operations The focus in the field campaign was defined more Republicans nationally. Field Strategies: 1. Micro-targeting: Used consumer databases to identify Republicans by purchasing habits: Republicans reach certain magazines, drinks or excessive alcohol, subscribe to specific magazines. 2. Mining Precincts: Most Republicans do not live in Republican Precincts 11

Electing the President, 2004 Campaigns Strategy: Internet Operations The focus in the field campaign was defined more Republicans nationally. Internet Strategies: 1. Fundraising: the campaign did not raise money online 2. TV ads: did not buy ads on news channels (fewer Republicans watched the news and Democrats). To reach Republicans the purchase ads on Golf channel, Discovery, Fox, etc. Republicans and the media: 1.They distrust the networks 2.Leaving networks for cable news in order to get “information they trust.” 3.Are they trying to avoid bias? 12

Electing the President, 2004 Campaigns Strategy: 2010? “Hate is stronger than love, but in 2004 voters supported Bush because they liked him.” How would you apply this advice to 2010, given that Obama has it 80% approval rating amongst Democrats? 13