1. Strategic Politicians

2. Number of House seats held by President’s party, 1936-2004

3. Strategic Calculus Overall benefit of running for a new office is equal to the difference between the value to the officeholder of her current office in interaction with the probability of keeping her current office and the risks (likelihood of winning, costs of campaign, opportunity costs of losing current office) of running for a new office. U=(PB) - R

4. Challengers to incumbents (J & K Table 3.2) Democrats’ percent of experienced candidates Republicans’ percent of experienced candidates 197221%22% 197438%13% 197629%17% 197825%16%

5. Number of candidates in House and Senate Primary Races, 2002 No incumbent, favored party No incumbent, competitive seat Party challenging an incumbent Ave. number of candidates 4.83.72.0 Number of races2740

6. Two other arguments Strategic Resources Strategic Retirement

7. Explaining national midterm election outcomes Referendum on the president Reversion to party id Response to economy and job approval Strategic politicians