1. Making SOME Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election
John G. Geer
Vice Provost of Academic and Strategic Affairs
Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science
Co-Director of the Vanderbilt Poll

2. 2016 Presidential Elections:
Structural Forces
*Economy
*2 Terms Obama
* Incumbent rating
*Anger
*Paid v. Free Media
*demographics

3. Economy, Incumbent, and Time for Change Model, 1948-2012

4. Middle Class Anger

5. Paid v. Free Media * one sided message by Clinton
* presidential ads drove narrative
* Trump drives it in 2016
* Trump recasts traditional information flow?

6. Since June 2016: Over 211,000 campaign ads
23% FL
18% OH
14% NC
10% PA
5% VA
4% CO
4% National Cable

7. Since June 2016: Over 211,000 campaign ads
82% Democrat
18% Republican
.8% Other

8. Trump and Free Media

9. The role of changing demographics
Asian Americans by 47 Points
Obama won Women by 10 Percentage Points
More importantly, there were 7.7 million more female voters than male voters. They provided 53% of the US electorate in the last election cycle.
African Americans by 87 points
Hispanic Voters by 47 Points
Younger Voters Age by 23 Points
48%
51%
Electoral Vote
Popular Vote

10. White Vote is Getting Smaller
Source: Roper Center Public Opinion Archives •

11. Female Vote is Increasing
Source: Roper Center Public Opinion Archives •

12. Growing Hispanic Vote

13. Hispanic Vote in Presidential Elections
 Democrat  Republican

14. The Democrat Edge
States That Voted Consistently In The Past Six Presidential Elections
Democrats won 18 states plus the District of Columbia six times in a row, which in 2016 would earn 242 electoral votes, about 90 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
In contrast, Republicans consistently carried 13 states over the last six elections, which in 2016 would earn the party 102 electoral votes, 38 percent of the 270 needed to win.
The average state that voted Democratic in the past six elections delivers 13 electoral votes, while the average state that voted Republican in the past six elections delivers eight electoral votes.
Voted Republican every election since 1992
Voted Democratic every election since 1992

15. And Who Wins????? Obama in late July: 51% approve, 44% disapprove
GDP growth 2.1%
Third Term not a charm….
But this model assumes equally qualified candidates and equal amount of resources….