Arab Climate Resilience Initiative Cairo: September, 2010 Vulnerability of Moroccan coastal zones to sea level rise and shoreline erosion Abdellatif Khattabi

Atlantic Ocean Typologie des côtes marocaines Coast of Morocco

Low microbiologic and physico-chemical qualities of water nearby some urban settlements (pollution by liquid effluents and solid waste); coastal erosion (natural phenomena and human intervention –sand mining, urbanization); pollution and salinisation of aquifers (sea water intrusion, intensive agriculture) loss of coastal ecosystems. Major forces of change in Moroccan coastal zones 1)demography/urbanization 2)tourism 3)agriculture 4)fishing 5)industry 6)Transport 7)Climate change

Comparison of COED and Cost of protection

Impacts of Changing Climates on Coasts The potential threats (IPCC 4rth report) –More frequent storms –sea level rise –a change in landscapes –shifts in biological diversity Potential damages to: infrastructure Economic activities (tourism, fisheries) cultural assets  Morocco by 2020 (SNC, 2001)  Average temperature increase  Diminishing precipitations  Diminishing water resources  Sea level increase  Increasing Storms frequency  Varying waves regime

Physical impacts on coastal zones Sea level rise Submersion of low laying coasts Coastal erosion Sea water intrusion into aquifers Coastal morphology YY- Natural ecosystems YYY Water resourcesY-Y Coastal infrastructures YY- Vulnerability assessment criteria and approach Natural vulnerabilitySocioeconomic vulnerability Morphology/topographyPopulation density Presence/absence of natural defensesCoastal infrastructures Degree of exposureImportance of economic sectors PI= f(exposure, sensibility) V=f(PI, AC) Vulnerability assessment

7 Vulnerability of Moroccan CZ High vulnerability Medium vulnerability Low vulnerability Dégradation du littoral de Tanger Plage de TAMARES 2 en 2003 (M’hammedi, 2005)

o Bouareg o Beni Ensar o Nador o Iheddadene o Kariate Arekmane Enabling stakeholders in Moroccan coastal management to develop sustainable climate change adaptation policies and plans ( ) Objectives: The global objective is to develop capacity for, and contribute to, policy and decision-making for strategic coastal land use planning and management, to the purpose of reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities to the impacts of sea level rise, coastal flooding, and related extreme weather events. Objectives: The global objective is to develop capacity for, and contribute to, policy and decision-making for strategic coastal land use planning and management, to the purpose of reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities to the impacts of sea level rise, coastal flooding, and related extreme weather events.

the non-cohesive Sediment Transport (ST-MIKE21) module has been applied. The values of annual mean potential sediment transport have been computed in different sections, extrapolated in m 3 /year. Sections equidistant (1500 m), parallel one to each other, The sediment discharges calculated represent the total annual potential transport generated by the contribution, for each grid, of the L and R waves, opportunely weighed on its annual frequency of occurrence. Sediment transport

Coastline evolution Lagoon of Nador Mediterranean Sea Accretion Erosion Passe de Boukâna EPR : - 0,44 m/an LRR : - 0,43 m/an

Socioeconomic Vulnerability

Project outputs IPCC scenarios downscaling Vulnerability maps of various sectors (socioeconomic and natural systems) Good adaptation practices Manual on education and raising awareness on CC adaptation Gender and CC, adaptation options Small scale fisheries and adaptation to climate change Recommendations on how to integrate CC considerations into planning and legislation ICZM Plan of Action taking into account the CC vulnerability ad adaptation options

Drivers: Urbanisation Agriculture Demography C-Change Drivers: Urbanisation Agriculture Demography C-Change Pressures: Construction Pollution Overharvesting Development on shoreline Immersion; water intrusion Pressures: Construction Pollution Overharvesting Development on shoreline Immersion; water intrusion State: Erosion Salinisation Pollution Loss of natural areas State: Erosion Salinisation Pollution Loss of natural areas Impact: Loss of biodiversity Loss of soil fertility; Loss of health; Loss of ecosystem services Loss of aesthetic values Loss of economic opportunities Impact: Loss of biodiversity Loss of soil fertility; Loss of health; Loss of ecosystem services Loss of aesthetic values Loss of economic opportunities Response: Institutional measures; Research; Integrated management Response: Institutional measures; Research; Integrated management Land Planning and management to meet new challenges (C-change) Laws and regulation enforcement, Pollution control; Restoration of ecosystems; Erosion control Conservation measures Hard measures of protection Soft measures of protection Education & awareness raising (C-change); Monitoring DPSIR Analysis

In coastal areas, damage has occurred and will continue (CC potential effects); There is a need: to integrate between sectors, stakeholders, etc. as climate change crosses all sectors; for medium and long terms planning for a strategy of adaptation; to communicate and interact; for an effective jurisdiction and institutional framework for coastal areas; for research and data acquisition and monitoring. What is being implemented Charte of environment and SD under progress Law on protected areas Project of Law on coastal zones adaptation actions (CBA) (fisheries, agriculture, building adaptive capacity of women) the ICZM plan of action with the WB financial support Conclusions