1. BLAST Bringing Land and Sea Together
1/17/2019
BLAST Bringing Land and Sea Together
Decision support for ICZM in a Climate Change Perspective
Prof. Henning Sten Hansen
Aalborg University
Hirtshals
6 September 2010

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Setting the Frame
The coastal zones are of strategic importance being home to a large percentage of European citizens
Exposure of the coastal zones to the possible impacts of climate change
The vulnerability of human and natural systems on the coasts has increased due to the continuing development and built-up in the immediate vicinity of the shoreline

3. Overview Climate change Integrated Coastal Zone management
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Overview
Climate change
Integrated Coastal Zone management
Decision Support Systems
Conclusions

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Climate change

5. Climate change and SRES
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Climate change and SRES
The SRES scenarios are interpretations of four alternative storylines representing possible futures in two dimensions A focus on economic or environmental concern (the Development dimension) Focus on global or local development patterns (the Governance dimension)

6. CO2 Emissions Profiles under IPCC SRES scenarios
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CO2 Emissions Profiles under IPCC SRES scenarios

7. Effects of climate change
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Effects of climate change
Flooding
Soil erosion and leaching
Coastal erosion

8. Mitigation and adaptation
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Mitigation and adaptation
Mitigation is defined as the technological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output
Adaptation to climate change consists of initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against climate change effects

9. Winter precipitation % change (2071-2100) – (1961-1990)
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Winter precipitation % change ( ) – ( )
Source: DMI

10. Summer precipitation % change (2071-2100) – (1961-1990)
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Summer precipitation % change ( ) – ( )
Source: DMI

11. Integrated On- and Off-shore spatial planning - current state
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Integrated On- and Off-shore spatial planning - current state
Policies and laws provide the legal framework for ICZM
An integrated cross-sectional approach is needed
Ex-ante scenarios and indicators are required to include climate change in the process
High quality integrated data is needed

12. Conceptual model for Decision Support Tool
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Conceptual model for Decision Support Tool

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Relevant EU Policies
A Communication on Integrated Coastal Zone Management: A Strategy for Europe (2000 )
The Water Framework Directive (2002)
The Renewable Energy Directive (2001)
The Floods Directive ( 2007)
White Paper on Climate Change Adaptation (2009)
The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008)
The Habitat Directive (1992)
Common Agricultural Policy reform (2003 )
Common Fishery Policy reform (2002)
The INSPIRE Directive (2007)

14. Analysis and Modelling Tools
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Analysis and Modelling Tools
Flood Risk Assessment
Flooding due to Sea Level Rise
Flooding along Rivers and Streams
Land-use Modelling Change Impact Assessment
Land-use scenarios
Adaptation through Spatial Planning
Impact Assessment

15. Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for the North Sea region
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Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for the North Sea region
General circulation models
The PRUDENCE project (A2, B2)
The ENSEMBLE project (A1B)

16. Flood Risk Assessment - Sea Level Rise
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Flood Risk Assessment Sea Level Rise

17. Flood Risk Assessment - River flooding
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Flood Risk Assessment River flooding

18. LUCIA Land Use Change Impact Assessment
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LUCIA Land Use Change Impact Assessment
Sustainability
? ? ?
Respond
Output
Scenarios :
Future
Land-use
Indicators
Input
Land-use planning
Zones and plans
Socio-economic data
GIS based land-use
Simulation model

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LUCIA

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Example scenario

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22. Land-use and Climate Change Adaptation A spatial planning case study
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Land-use and Climate Change Adaptation A spatial planning case study
The first (baseline) scenario is just a projection of current trends in land-use development
Scenario A and B simulates an urban development as presumed in story lines A2 and B1, which – regarding climate change - represent the most pessimistic and optimistic of the SRES scenarios.

23. Flood risk and land-use - 1
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Flood risk and land-use
Land-use in 2040 according
to Policy scenario A. Black cells
represent new urban areas.
The cross-hatched and hatched
areas represent the 80 cm and
280 cm flooding zones respectively

24. Flood risk and land-use - 2
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Flood risk and land-use
Land-use in 2040 according
to Policy scenario B. Black cells
represent new urban areas.
The cross-hatched and hatched
areas represent the 80 cm and
280 cm flooding zones respectively

25. Spatial impact indicators
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Spatial impact indicators
URBANFLOOD-1: Urban land use in areas risk of flooding due to future sea level rise (in hectares)
URBANFLOOD-2: Urban land use in areas risk of flooding due to future sea level rise and stronger and more frequent storm surges (in hectares).

26. Number of vulnerable new cells (ha) for the two policy scenarios
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Number of vulnerable new cells (ha) for the two policy scenarios

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Number of vulnerable new cells (ha) for the two policy scenarios after adaptation

28. Conclusions Climate change is a major challenge for the whole globe
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Conclusions
Climate change is a major challenge for the whole globe
Coastal areas are perceived as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change
Knowledge based ICZM can contribute to as well climate change adaptation as adaptation
Scenario based decision support tools provide important input for forward looking ICZM
High quality integrated land-sea data are imperative for reliable results

29. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! ! !
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! ! !
Henning Sten Hansen
Professor, Aalborg University
Copenhagen Institute of Technology
Ballerup, Denmark