Global Economic and Energy Outlook International Aviation Fuel Conference and Exhibition Christof Ruehl, Chief Economist, BP p.l.c. Beijing, April 2012

© BP 2012 Outline Global trends Energy markets Transport fuel outlook Risks and unknowns 2

© BP 2012 Income growth: The long run GDP growth % per year GDP growth per capita % per year

© BP 2012 Not so new: Income and population shares World GDP shares % of world GDP World population shares % of world population *Includes UK, France, Germany, Italy * 4

© BP 2012 Medium term growth risks 5 Fed + ECB + BoJ (rhs) Central banks’ balance sheetsConsumption and inequality Gini coefficientTrillion $US*% of GDP% of world GDP *At constant 2011 exchange rates

© BP 2012 Outline Global trends Energy markets Transport fuel outlook Risks and unknowns 6

© BP 2012 Energy demand growth OECD Non-OECD Billion toe *Includes biofuels Billion toe 7 *

© BP 2012 India and China, again Energy Billion toeTrillion, $2010 PPP GDPPopulation Billion Rest of World India China 8

© BP 2012 Energy consumption follows development ChinaIndia Billion toe 9 *Includes biofuels *

© BP 2012 Patterns of economic development Industrialisation Industry as %GDP Energy intensity $2010 GDP per capita (000s) Toe per thousand $2010 GDP 10 China India

© BP 2012 Industry vs. transport in energy demand Billion toe India China Primary energy growth by fuel 11 * China: final energy demand by sector Billion toe *Includes biofuels

© BP 2012 Energy: Consumption growth by sector By sector and fuel to 2030 By sector and region to 2030 Final energy useInputs to power Billion toe Final energy useInputs to power Billion toe 12

© BP 2012 Outline Global trends Energy markets Transport fuel outlook Risks and unknowns 13

© BP 2012 Global liquids, demand and supply Mb/d DemandSupply India Mid East China NGLs Iraq Other S&C Am Other Saudi Oil Sands Biofuels Brazil US 2030 level 14

© BP 2012 Mb/d Liquids supply growth - OPEC and North America Growth from 2010 to 2030Liquids supply by type Mb/d Other Saudi Arabia Iraq NGLs Brazil US Shale Oil Biofuels Canadian Oil Sands Other RoW OPEC share (rhs) 15

© BP 2012 Liquids demand growth: non-OECD transport Liquids demand by product group Mb/d 16 Liquids demand by sector Mb/d

© BP 2012 Non-fossil fuels: Growth led by OECD renewables Billion toe Renewables in power Biofuels OECDNon-OECD Billion toe 17

© BP 2012 Global renewables in power and transport Share of power generation EU Other OECD Non-OECD World Share of transport sector 18

© BP 2012 Transport fuel demand By energy type Billion toe 19 By Region Billion toe

© BP 2012 Aviation fuel demand By energy type Billion toe 20 Aviation Demand by Region Mb/d Oil - aviation Oil - other

© BP 2012 Outline Global trends Energy markets Transport fuel outlook Risks and unknowns 21

© BP 2012 Energy imbalances improve in the Americas Gas Oil Coal Billion toe Key: Europe N. America S. & C. America Africa Mid-East FSU Other Asia Pacific India China 22 Net exporters Net importers

© BP 2012 Import dependency rises in Asia and Europe Billion toe IndiaChinaUSEU27 80%91% 42% 47% 94% 32% 40% 80% 57% Import share of respective fuel %

© BP 2012 Carbon emission growth: More action coming? Billion tonnes CO2 Oil Gas Coal OECD Non-OECD Global CO 2 emissions from energy use Base Case Policy Case IEA “450 Scenario” Billion tonnes CO2 24