1. Bryan Lovell Meeting 2019 Trends in world energy and decarbonisation
Spencer Dale
Group Chief Economist, BP

2. Energy system faces a dual challenge
More energy; less carbon 2

3. Energy system faces a dual challenge More energy; less carbon
Human development index and energy consumption per head, 2018
Gigajoules/head 3

4. Energy system faces a dual challenge More energy; less carbon
Human development index and energy consumption per head, 2018
Carbon emissions
Billion tonnes CO2
Gigajoules/head 4

5. Recent growth in carbon emissions
GDP and carbon emissions
Annual change, % 5

6. Recent growth in carbon emissions
GDP and carbon emissions
Factors slowing recent growth in CO₂
Annual change, %
Annual change, % 6

7. Pathway to a lower-carbon Energy system
Carbon emissions
Carbon emissions in 2040
Billion tonnes CO2
Billion tonnes CO2
Energy
intensity 7

8. Fuel shares in power generation8

9. Fuel mix in a lower carbon energy system
Carbon emissions
Primary energy consumption by fuel
Billion tonnes CO2
Billion toe
2040 9

10. Reducing carbon emissions beyond 2040
Efficiency, efficiency, efficiency
- circular economy/reuse/recycle: reducing demand for new materials and products:
- energy efficiency
Decarbonise power sector
– renewables (supported by energy storage, DSR, grid interconnection)
– Gas (and coal) with CCUS
Hydrogen: potential role for both green and blue hydrogen
Bioenergy: including liquid biofuels
Carbon storage and removal
– CCUS: industry and power
– Negative emission technologies (inc BECCS, air capture, land carbon) 10

11. Bryan Lovell Meeting 2019 Trends in world energy and decarbonisation
Spencer Dale
Group Chief Economist, BP