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International Energy Outlook 2013

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Presentation on theme: "International Energy Outlook 2013"— Presentation transcript:

1 International Energy Outlook 2013
For U.S. Senate Briefing August 12, 2013 | Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator

2 Key findings of the International Energy Outlook 2013
With world GDP rising by 3.6 percent per year, world energy use will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and Half of the increase is attributed to China and India. Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world’s fastest-growing energy sources, each increasing by 2.5 percent per year; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook, supported by increasing supplies of shale gas, particularly in the United States. Coal grows faster than petroleum consumption until after 2030, mostly due to increases in China’s consumption of coal, and slow growth in oil demand in OECD member countries. Given current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase 46 percent by 2040, reaching 45 billion metric tons in 2040. Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

3 Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend average annual change ( ) percent per year Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

4 Non-OECD Asia accounts for 60 percent of the world increase in energy use
world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History Projections Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

5 By 2040, China’s energy use will be double the U. S
By 2040, China’s energy use will be double the U.S. level; India’s a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 220 107 55 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

6 Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption
world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 28% 27% 23% 34% Share of world total 28% 15% 22% 11% 7% 5% Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

7 World petroleum and other liquids production
million barrels per day OPEC Rest of non-OECD Russia Rest of OECD Canada United States Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

8 World natural gas production
trillion cubic feet Rest of non-OECD China MENA Russia Rest of OECD Canada United States Note: The MENA region consists of the Middle East and North Africa countries Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

9 World coal production World Other non-OECD Asia Australia India
billion short tons World Other non-OECD Asia Australia India United States China Note: Indonesia accounted for 72 percent of the total coal production in Other non-OECD Asia in 2010, rising from 52 percent in Throughout the projection period, Indonesia continues dominating the region's coal production. Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

10 World net hydropower and other renewable electricity generation
trillion killowatthours Rest of non-OECD India Brazil China Rest of OECD Canada United States Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

11 World net nuclear electricity generation
trillion killowatthours China Rest of World India Russia OECD Europe Other Asia Japan United States Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

12 Industrial sector energy consumption in China
China industrial sector energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

13 Gross output curves shape China’s industrial coal and liquids use
China gross output for iron production real 2005 dollars (MER) China gross output for chemical production real 2005 dollars (MER) Source: Oxford Industrial Model Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

14 Liquid Fuels Markets Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

15 OPEC market share grows after 2025
world liquids production million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 62 50 49 35 5 2 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

16 Non-OPEC petroleum supply growth is concentrated in five countries
non-OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

17 Production profiles of the three most petroleum-rich countries in the Middle East are uncertain
liquids production in Middle East OPEC in four Reference case scenarios million barrels per day Country 2011 2040 Past as prologue Iraq success Iran success Iran & Iraq success; Saudi Arabia takes the rest 2040 production range Saudi Arabia 11.1 15.5 10.2 13.8 6.0 9.5 Iran 4.2 5.9 3.9 8.1 Iraq 2.6 3.7 11.0 3.3 7.7 Other Middle East OPEC 7.5 10.7 _ Total Middle East OPEC 25.4 35.8 Source: EIA, IEO2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

18 Natural Gas Markets Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

19 Non-OECD nations account for over 70 percent of the growth in natural gas consumption
world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day 330 275 220 165 110 55 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

20 Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East, and the United States account for the largest increases in natural gas production growth in natural gas production trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

21 Electricity Markets Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

22 In electricity generation, renewables and natural gas are the fastest growing sources, but coal still fuels the largest share in 2040 world electricity generation by fuel billion kilowatthours History Projections Coal 36% 24% Natural gas 40% Nuclear 22% Hydropower Other renewables Liquids Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

23 China accounts for more than 40 percent of the global net increase in nuclear capacity
world nuclear electricity generating capacity, 2010 and 2040 gigawatts Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

24 Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
. Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

25 Non-OECD Asia accounts for over 70 percent of the world increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History Projections Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

26 Coal continues to account for the largest share of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons History 2010 Projections Coal Natural gas Liquid fuels Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

27 There are many issues that increase uncertainty…
Unresolved long-term effects of economic issues in the United States, Europe, and China The timing of Japan’s full recovery from the impacts of the nuclear disaster at Fukushima Social unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential for unrest elsewhere Shale gas and shale oil production potential OPEC market share decisions Climate policies Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

28 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | Short-Term Energy Outlook | Annual Energy Outlook | International Energy Outlook | Monthly Energy Review | Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

29 Supplementary Slides Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

30 IEO2013 includes 4 alternative cases that examine the sensitivity to different GDP growth and oil prices Reference case World GDP increases by 3.6 percent per year between 2010 and 2040 and energy consumption rises to 820 quadrillion Btu (quads) in 2040 Oil prices reach $163 (Brent in 2011 dollars) and the OPEC share of liquids production is 43% in 2040 High Economic Growth case World GDP increases by 4.0 percent per year and consumption grows to 946 quads in 2040 Low Economic Growth case World GDP increases by 3.1 percent per year and consumption grows to 733 quads in 2040 High Oil Price case Oil prices rise to $237 per barrel as a result of high non-OECD demand and the OPEC share is 38% in 2040 Low Oil Price case Oil prices are $75 per barrel as a result of low non-OECD GDP growth and the OPEC share is 51% in 2040 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

31 Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily as the global economy expands and the call on OPEC rises Brent crude oil price paths real 2011 dollars per barrel History 2011 Projections $237 $163 $75 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

32 Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand but per capita use is still below OECD levels
world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

33 Brazilian and U.S. biofuels and Chinese CTL account for nearly 65 percent of the total increase in nonpetroleum supplies world nonpetroleum liquids production in 2010 and 2040 million barrels per day Biofuels Brazil United States Other 2010 Coal-to-liquids China Other 2040 Gas-to-liquids Qatar Other 2040 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

34 Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East
OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

35 Shale oil and gas have the potential to dramatically alter world energy markets
map of basins with assessed shale oil and gas formations, as of May 2013 Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

36 Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources
Shale oil Shale gas Rank Country Billion barrels Trillion cubic feet 1 Russia 75 China 1,115 2 United States 58 Argentina 802 3 32 Algeria 707 4 27 665 5 Libya 26 Canada 573 6 Venezuela 13 Mexico 545 7 Australia 437 8 Pakistan 9 South Africa 390 285 10 Indonesia Brazil 245 World total 345 7,299 Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI. Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet. Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

37 Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane are increasingly important to the United States, China and Canada natural gas production trillion cubic feet Shale gas Coalbed methane Tight gas All other China Canada United States Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

38 Btu or British thermal units, can be used as an energy measurement across different energy sources
One Btu is approximately equal to the energy released in the burning of a wood match. One million Btu equals about 8 gallons of motor gasoline. One trillion Btu is equal to ton railroad cars of coal. One quadrillion Btu is equal to 172 million barrels of crude oil. Adam Sieminski, IEO August 12, 2013

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