Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission Competitiveness

The current legislative district lines have been used in the last four elections: 2004, 2006, 2008 and Each district elects one Senator and two Representatives. In each district there have been a total of 12 legislative elections run under the current lines. 13 districts have elected Republicans in all 12 of those elections. 8 districts have elected Democrats in all 12 of those elections. 9 districts have elected both Democrats and Republicans. 3 of those districts that have elected both Democrats and Republicans elected one party in 11 of the 12 elections. All except 3 districts have elected one party or the other at least 75% of the time. 2

AIRC Definition of Competitiveness The AIRC used two different measures of competitiveness, both designed to identify districts where the projected vote for the two major parties would be within 7%. The first method was to use the JudgeIt program to predict electoral outcomes. The second was to use the AQD (Arizona Quick and Dirty) score which is the average Democratic and Republican percents in the races for Corporation Commission in 1998 and This was intended to allow for quick analysis of changes to the plans without having to wait for overnight runs of the JudgeIt program.

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AIRC Commission defined as competitive

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11 In the eight districts with less than 35% Average Republican vote, Democrats have won 12 of the last 12 legislative elections.

12 In the eight districts with less than 35% Average Republican vote, Democrats have won 12 of the last 12 legislative elections. In the six districts with more than 65% Average Republican vote, Republicans have won 12 of the last 12 legislative elections.

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