1. Voting and Elections 3 November, 2008

2. What’s at Stake Presidency House of Representatives All 435 seats Democrats currently have a 15 seat majority (233 seats) and could increase their majority by 20-30 seats. U.S. Senate 35 seats in the U.S. Senate Democrats currently have a 1 seat majority 23 of the contested seats are held by Republicans. Democrats need to pick up 9 seats to stop filibuster Governors’ Races 11 states State legislative races Statewide ballot measures

3. Options for Electing the President Congress chooses the president State legislatures choose the president President elected by popular vote Electoral College

4. How it works Each state was allocated a number of Electors equal to the number of U.S. Senators (always 2) plus the number of U.S. Representatives (which changes) The manner of choosing the electors was left to the individual state legislators. By 1836 all states (except for South Carolina) choose electors by popular vote (plurality rules). The candidate with a majority of electoral votes is elected president In the event that no candidate wins a majority, the U.S. House of Representatives would choose from the top five contenders. Each state could cast only one vote. An absolute majority is required

5. The 2000 Presidential Election Bush 271; Gore 266 (270 needed to win)

6. The 2004 Presidential Election Bush 286 EV (51%)/ Kerry 252 EV (48%) 270 EV needed to win A change in Ohio (with 20 electoral votes) would have given Kerry the presidency even though Bush would have received a majority of the popular vote

7. Unequal Representation Source: Robert A. Dahl, How Democratic is the American Constitution?

8. Adjusting for State Population

9. The Tracking Polls as of November 3 Obama 51, McCain 44 (DemCorps 10/30=11/2) Obama 51, McCain 43 (NBCWSJ 11/1-2) Obama 52, McCain 42 (Gallup 10/31-11/2) Obama 54, McCain 41 (CBS 10/30-11/1) Obama 54, McCain 43 (ABCPost 10/29-11/1)

10. Link to CNN mapCNN map

12. Will Obama have coattails? Typically about 90 percent of House incumbents are reelected In the Senate, 78.6 percent have won reelection in the postwar period Even in years very unfavourable to one of the parties, a large majority win. In 1994, the Democrats worst year since 1946, 84 percent won. In 2006, 87 percent of the Republican incumbents in the House were returned to office.

13. Congressional Races to Watch Open seats (where no incumbent is running) are typically the most competitive U.S. Senate (5 seats all held by Republicans); Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska, Idaho, U.S. House (32 seats); 26 held by Republicans. However, many of those retiring represent safe Republican districts.

14. Senate Races to Watch Nevertheless, of the 23 Republican Senate seats, 7 are competitive; 1 is a tossup (Minnesota); and 3 are leaning Republican (Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi) Only 1 Democratic seat (Louisiana is competitive) See Map of Senate RacesMap of Senate Races

16. When the polls close… add 5 hours)

17. The Florida Disaster Florida recount (link to Univ. of Chicago study)link to Univ. of Chicago study The punch card voting system Design of the palm beach ballot

18. The Butterfly Ballot

19. Evidence of problems in Palm Beach

20. Voter Turnout U.S. turnout in comparative perspective Lower for congressional elections than Presidential elections Decline in voter turnout How low is it? Does it matter? The role of age and education

21. Turnout in Comparative Perspective See also Fiorina et al. Table 6.1, p.140

22. Trends in Voter Turnout

23. Voting is the most common form of political participation Many people also talk about politics and try to persuade others to vote Very few participate in any other specific way.

24. The U.S. in Comparative Perspective Source: Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), Module 2, 2004

26. Why is voter turnout so low? Electoral system Voter attitudes Lack of convenience Difficulty of registration

28. Electoral College How it works Majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes to win Past results 2004 election (Bush 286/Kerry 251) 2000 election (Bush 271/Gore 266) States to watch Pollster.com