1. ELECTORAL POLARIZATION AND THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY How to engage

2. Introduction Marc Burgat Vice President of Government Relations California Chamber of Commerce

3. History of polarization  Printing Press (1454)  Prior books cost $25k  Martin Luther (1483-1546)  Protestant reformation  Theses reprinted 250+k  200 years of great sectarianism – one of bloodiest times

4. History Repeats Itself  The Internet  Fully commercialized in 1995  Talk Radio Popularity increased in 1990s  In 1987, the FCC’s “Fairness Doctrine” (1949) was repealed  Mandated that “controversial issues of public importance” be presented in a way that was “honest, equitable and balanced”  Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight blog, NY Times

5. Term Limits (and other efforts to avoid a repeat)  Prop 140 (1990)  Assembly Three 2-year terms  Senate Two 8-year terms  Many believed the imposition of term limits would redirect power to the third-house (lobbyists)  Instead, power and influence have been consolidated by party leadership  Term Limits Change in 2012  One 12-Year term

6. History of “Gerrymandering” Elbridge Gerry (1812) Elbridge Gerry  Power to redraw districts lines fell to the state legislature which has been Democratically- dominated for much of the past half century  Every new map tended to lean toward maintaining the status quo  Some districts were specifically drawn to strategically benefit the electability of the incumbent, such as the “Stockton finger” or Central Coast of California

7. Redistricting  Prop 11 (November 2008), Prop 20 (November 2010)  Created Citizens’ Redistricting Commission  Commissioners redrew district lines without regard to where incumbents currently live or which constituents they currently represent  Districts drawn with an eye to natural geography

8. Election System Precludes Change  CA incumbents won re-election over 85% of the time in the past several decades  Ridiculous victory margins  In heavily Democratic or Republican areas, incumbents would face no opposition or a weak challenger of the disadvantaged party

9. Election Change to Foster Change (and Moderation)  Prop 14 (June 2010)  “Jungle” or “top two” primary system  The two candidates receiving the most votes move on to the general election regardless of party

10. Outcome of These Efforts  38 open seats in the Assembly due to term limits and nonpartisan redistricting  22 Democratic  12 Republican  4 competitive  Incumbents are leaving office or facing the first serious challenges of their political careers

11. Moderation in action  New election rules and redistricting have produced 20 races with incumbents facing challengers of their same party  11 Democrat vs. Democrat in the Assembly  2 Democrat vs. Democrat in the Senate  7 Republican vs. Republican in the Assembly  *1 Democrat vs. NPP in the Assembly

12. What This Means  No incumbent here for more than 4 years (Assembly) – 6 Years (Senate)  The new crop of Legislators will be here for 12 years – Power shift  Business must get involved in primary and before!  Critical to moderate Legislature for future economic health  JobsPAC engaged  Engage before you need something  Everybody has to work to get to know new Legislators  Prop 32…

13. Thank you Marc Burgat Vice President of Government Relations California Chamber of Commerce marc.burgat@calchamber.com