Virginia’s Growing Mature & Diverse Population: Implications for the Transportation Sector Kevin F Byrnes, AICP Aging Demographer Virginia Department for the Aging

Virginia’s Aging Program: 25 Planning & Service Areas

Short-term Trends: 2000 – Migration > Natural Increase 2. Uneven Sub-State Regional Growth 3. Increasing Racial & Ethnic Diversity

Demographic Change: P 1 = P 0 + Components of Change: Natural Increase: (Births 0-1 – Deaths 0-1 ) + Net Migration: (In-Migrants 0-1 – Out-Migrants 0-1 ) + residual Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change for Virginia: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 Geographic area Total population change* National Residual Natural increaseNet migration TotalBirthsDeathsTotal Net international migration Net internal migration Virginia307,8472,352137,243321,528184,285168,25290,53677,716 Share of Change100.0%0.76%44.58%104.44%59.86%54.65%29.41%25.25% Table 4: Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change for the United States and States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 (NST-EST ) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau; Release Date: December 18, 2003; Last Revised Date: May 11, 2004.

Increasing Racial Diversity

Increasing Ethnic Diversity

Changing Age Structure: The Baby-Boom Tidal Wave Boomers born between 1946 & 1964 Year 2000: Boomers = Persons aged Year 2004: Boomers = Persons aged Year 2006: Boomers = Persons aged Year 2010: Boomers = Persons aged Year 2016: Boomers = Persons aged Year 2024: Boomers = Persons aged 60-78

Virginia’s Projected Population Growth,

The Growing Importance of Senior Cohort K – 12 Population Baby- Boomers Seniors, Age 60+ Boomer : Senior Ratio K -1 2 : Senior Ratio ,173,7372,017,596909, ,378,3552,078,3171,065, ,404,5542,014,0551,448, ,502,0201,788,3791,894, ,630,7831,428,7402,258,

Demographic Trends,

Trends in Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy Change (in Years): by Age, Race, and Sex, United States ( ) Age All RacesWhiteBlack TotalMaleFemaleTotalMaleFemaleTotalMaleFemale At Birth

What Lies Ahead? Projected US Life Expectancy Range: Life Expectancy AT BIRTH Total Male 74.0 – – – – 92.3 Total Female 79.7 – – – – 95.2 White, NH Male 74.7 – – – – 91.8 White, NH Female 80.1 – – – – 94.6 Black, NH Male 68.3 – – – – 91.4 Black, NH Female 75.1 – – – – 94.5 Am Indian, NH Male 72.8 – – – – 92.9 Am Indian, NH Female 82.0 – – – – 96.5 Asian, NH Male 80.8 – – – – 93.5 Asian, NH Female 86.5 – – – – 96.2 Hispanic Males 77.1 – – – – 92.9 Hispanic Females 83.7 – – – – 95.6 NH = “Non-Hispanic” Source: National Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Wash. DC Jan 13, Expectancy Range (in Years): Low – High Projection Series

Possible Impact of Aging Trends on Virginia’s Transportation Sector

In 2003, Virginia’s population age 60 & over represented 15.6% of the state total, compared to Florida’s 22.4% (1 st in the Nation) Based on national projections, Virginia’s age 60+ population share (24.3%) in 2025 will be roughly comparable to Florida’s current age structure (persons age 60+ =22.4% of total in 2003).

Estimated & Projected Licensees, by Age Licensees by Age/ Total Population 1999 Pct Licensed Age 60 – , , %413, , , , , ,779 Age 65 – , , %274, , , , , ,042 Age 70 – , , %193, , , , , ,490 Age 75 – , , %141, , , , , ,340 Age 80 – 84 66, , %92, , , , , ,077 Age ,653 84, %53, ,454 63, ,607 81, ,697 Age 60 & over 832,151 1,029, %1,169,051 1,448,608 1,538,035 1,894,834 1,796,442 2,258,425

“Driving Age” Household Population Forecast Age Group Estimated Total Population 7,078,5127,892,9008,601,9009,275,100 Driving Age Population 4,806,0825,359,0255,840,4136,297,490 Under 65 Yrs 4,057,0554,412,6834,576,7624,670, Yrs 425,265540,736770,702920, yrs 255,857298,524373,484552, yrs + 67,905107,082119,465154, Yrs & over 749,027946,3421,263,6511,626,627 Pct Drivers, Age %17.7 %21.6 %25.8 %

Mean Daily Trips & Miles Forecast: Senior Drivers Virginia Drivers, 65 Yrs & over 749,027946,3421,263,6511,626,627 Mean Number of Daily Trips*, Persons Age Estimated No of Daily Vehicle Trips by Persons Age 65+ 2,546,6923,217,5634,204,6135,530,532 Est. No of Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled*, Persons Age Estimated No of Miles Traveled, Persons Age ,733,45916,087,81421,482,06727,652,659 * SOURCE: The 2001 National Household Travel Survey, person file, U.S. Department of Transportation. (Link)Link

Traffic Fatalities by State Traffic Fatalities Fatality Rate Deaths per 100 million vehicle miles travelled Virginia Florida 3, Source: US Statistical Abstract: , Table No 1090, page 697

Estimated & Projected Traffic Fatalities: Senior Virginians Virginia Drivers, Age ,265540,736770,702920,192 Death Rate per 100,000 (USA rate) Traffic Fatalities, Virginia Drivers, Age 75 & over 323,762405,606492,949706,435 Death Rate per 100,000 (USA rate) Traffic Fatalities, 75 & over Total Traffic Fatalities,

Vehicles/Household by Age of Householder, 2000 AGE GROUP Total Population Household Population No Vehicle Available Percent of Household Population w/o Vehicle Estimated Mean Vehicles per Person TOTAL 7,080,5886,848,776394, % & over1,062,7821,017,265106, % & over788,814745,81091, % & over568,051528,11175, % & over362,668327,00058, % & over199,655171,01538, % & over90,78371,99819, %1.456 Baby-Boomers = 36 – 54 yrs 2,089,3032,052,99387, %2.212

Work Status & Vehicle Availability for Older Virginians, 60 & over, 2000 Virginians, Age 60 & overNumber Percent of Total Percent, by Employment Status, Without Vehicle Mean Vehicles Per Person Employed221, %4.2 %2.028 Employed, Not at Work 5,127.5 %3.6 %1.983 Armed Forces11.0 %0.0 %2.000 Unemployed5,763.6 %8.3 %1.831 Not in Labor Force 781, %11.7 %1.734 Sample Error3,265.3 %NA Estimated Total 1,017, %10.5 %1.788 Source: 2000 Census, PUMS Data, 5% Sample of Persons.

Age Differences in Commuter Mode Choice, 2000 Commuter Mode Choice Employed Workers (Percent of Total) Under Age 60 Early Boomer (45-54) Late Boomer ( ) Age 60 & over Car, truck, or van 90.4 % 90.9 % 91.6 % 86.4 % Bus or trolley bus 1.7 % 1.4 % 1.5 % Streetcar or trolley car 0.0 % Subway or elevated 1.7 % 1.4 % 1.3 % Railroad 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.1 % Ferryboat 0.0 % Taxicab 0.1 % Motorcycle 0.1 % Bicycle 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.1 % Walked 2.1 % 1.4 % 2.2 % Worked at home 2.8 % 3.4 % 2.9 % 7.5 % Other method 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.8 % TOTAL %

Contact Information: Kevin F Byrnes, AICP Demographer Virginia Department for the Aging 1610 Forest Ave, Suite 100 Richmond, VA (804)