1. The Implications of Demographic Change for Transportation in Texas
The Future -
The Implications of Demographic Change for Transportation in Texas
Michael E. Cline, Ph.D.
Associate Director,
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
Rice University
May 21, 2014
Austin, TX

2. Percentage Change in Population and Licensed Drivers in Texas by Decade, 1950-2010

3. Change in Licensed Drivers Per 1,000 Population, 1950-2010

4. Change in Population and Licensed Drivers, 1950-2010
Year
Number
Percent Change from Previous Time
Licensed Drivers Per 1,000 Population
Population
Drivers
Percent Change
1950
7,711,194
2,796,862 --
362.7
1960
9,579,677
4,352,168
24.2
55.6
454.3
25.3
1970
11,196,730
6,380,057
16.9
46.6
569.8
25.4
1980
14,229,191
9,287,826
27.1
45.6
652.7
14.6
1990
16,986,510
11,136,694
19.4
19.9
655.6
0.4
2000
20,851,820
13,462,023
22.8
20.9
645.6
-1.5
2010
25,145,561
15,157,650
20.6
12.6
602.8
-6.6
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, Highway Statistics Series; and U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses.

5. Percentage Change in Licensed Drivers in Texas by Age, 1990-2010

6. Average Yearly Vehicle Miles Traveled in 2009 by Race/Ethnicity of Texas Driver
Average VMT
Race/Ethnicity
Yearly
Daily
NH White
14,518
39.8
NH Black
13,778
37.7
Hispanic
12,205
33.4
NH Asian & Other
12,109
33.2
Total
13,716
37.6
Source: U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 2009 National Household Travel Survey, 2011.

7. Population, Licenses Drivers, Yearly Vehicle Miles of Travel, and Road Miles Needed, 2010-2050
Drivers Per 1,000 Population
Yearly Vehicle Miles of Travel
Additional Road Miles Needed
Year
Population
Drivers
Per Driver
Total (in Billions)
2010
25,145,561
15,157,650
602.8
13,475
204.2 -
2020
30,583,311
18,625,949
609.0
13,075
243.5
71,218
2030
37,282,785
22,708,486
609.1
12,688
288.1
155,050
2040
45,316,711
27,403,007
604.7
12,446
341.1
251,448
2050
55,205,530
33,261,797
602.5
12,276
408.3
371,753
Source: Projections by the authors; and 2010 driver estimates and rates derived from U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Series, 2009, 2010, and 2011; and U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, National Household Travel Survey 2009; U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, Highway Statistics Series, Highway Statistics 2011.

8. Drivers, Vehicle Ownership, and Commute Mode in 2050 Using Alternative Rate Assumptions
Factor
Current Rates
NH White Rates
Difference
Drivers
33,261,797
36,811,415
-3,549,618
Vehicle Miles Traveled
Yearly Aggregate (Billions)
408.3
518.6
-110.3
Yearly Per Driver
12,276
14,088
-1,812
Daily Per Driver
33.6
38.6
-5.0
Zero Vehicle Households
561,201
229,062
332,139
Commuters
23,330,819
23,853,603
-522,784
Driving Alone
18,252,935
19,752,154
-1,499,219
Carpooling
3,026,020
1,988,859
1,037,161
Riding Public Transit
413,371
199,722
213,649
Percent Commuters Using:
78.2
82.8
-4.6
13.0
8.3
4.7
1.8
0.8
1.0

9. For more information. including. Purchase information,. contact:
For more information including Purchase information, contact: Texas A&m press Fax: or go to:
So were is the growth?

10. Happy Trails to You! Mike Cline
Associate Director,
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
For copies of the presentation and
additional data for your area go to:
Phone: