Session 8: Climate change and Australia's international transport links—aviation and maritime challenges 8 th BITRE Transport Colloquium Australian Transport – building capacity and competitiveness David Cosgrove Parliament House Canberra June 2008

Steadily increasing passenger and freight tasks Steadily increasing transport energy use Sources: BITRE estimates – for domestic transport, ABARE fuel consumption data – for domestic sales.

Total Australian Passenger Task, Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

Total Australian Passenger Task, Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

Total Australian Passenger Task, Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

Total Australian Freight Task, Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

Total Australian Freight Task, Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

Total Australian Freight Task, Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates Including here, for demonstration purposes, both total exports and imports for Australian trade. Even though this would result in double-counting, if totalled across different nations, there is not yet any agreed framework for consistently allocating portions of aggregate international tasks to particular countries.

Total Australian Freight Task, Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates Note that if only Australian imports were included here, the international tonne-km values would be much lower (by about a factor of 8 for current task levels).

International transport, CO 2 emission projections Sources: BITRE estimates based on ICAO, IMO and IEA data Global (smoothed) expected trends

Total Australian Passenger Task Projections Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates Base case projections

Total Australian Freight Task Projections Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates Base case projections

Total Energy End-use by Australian Transport Sources: ABARE (2008, website data release), Apelbaum (2007), Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (2008, fuel sales data), BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates. Base case projections Allows for international aviation and shipping to and from Australia (allocating half of their total fuel use; as an example of one method for avoiding double-counting of global emissions, when totalling across different countries).

Total Greenhouse Contribution of Australian Transport Note: total warming effects - includes both directly radiative gases and indirectly radiative gases. Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates Base case projections Emissions for international transport, to and from Australia, are estimated using half of total fuel use.

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport Source: BITRE (2008)

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport ‘Global Warming Potential’ values for short-lived gases only approximate Source: BITRE (2008)

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport Re-allocating emissions from the ‘Energy transformation’ sector of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory GWP values for short-lived gases only approximate Source: BITRE (2008)

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport Re-attributing emissions from the ‘Industrial Processes’ sector of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Re-allocating emissions from ‘Energy transformation’ GWP values for short-lived gases only approximate Source: BITRE (2008)

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport Known to have an effect – but not yet fully quantified Re-attributing emissions from the ‘Industrial Processes’ sector of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Re-allocating emissions from ‘Energy transformation’ GWP values for short-lived gases only approximate Source: BITRE (2008)

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport Source: BITRE (2008) International civil transport to and from Australia (using a rough allocation of half total fuel use) currently adds around 28% to the total for domestic civil transport

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport Source: BITRE (2008) It is important to consider all sources and all gases when estimating total warming effects – especially for aviation, due to high-altitude effects for some non-CO 2 emissions

References and further reading, from the BITRE website:  BTRE (2002), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020, Report  BTRE (2006), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections To 2020, Report to AGO  BTCE (1996), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions, Report 94  Cosgrove, D. C. (2003), Urban Pollutant Emissions from Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends to 2020, Final Draft Report for Environment Australia, BTRE  BITRE (2008, forthcoming Working Paper), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport – 2007: Projections to

David CosgroveClimate change and Australia's international transport