1. Road freight productivity – trends and prospects Jack McAuley, BTRE BTRE Transport Colloquium 13 - 14 June 2007

2. Outline Historical trends in articulated truck freight volumes and vehicle travel Projected increases in articulated truck freight volumes and vehicle travel Potential impact on vehicle traffic of potential regulatory changes: –Performance Based Standards – Expansion of B-triple network

3. Road freight has grown at 5.8 per cent per annum since 1971 Source: BTRE Report 112

4. Articulated trucks account for most of the growth Source: BTRE Report 112

5. Types of articulated truck Images adapted from National Transport Commission website Single articulated truck

6. Types of articulated truck Images adapted from National Transport Commission website Single articulated truck B-double

7. Types of articulated truck Images adapted from National Transport Commission website Single articulated truck B-double Road train

8. Types of articulated truck Images adapted from National Transport Commission website Single articulated truck B-double Road train B-triple

9. The share of freight carried by B-doubles is growing at 2.2 percentage points per annum Source: ABS Survey of Motor Vehicle Use, 1992-2005

10. The average load of each vehicle class has remained relatively constant… Source: Vicroads CULWAY data for laden trucks on the Hume Highway

11. Source: BTRE Report 112 and there have been no changes to legal mass limits in the last decade

12. Source: BTRE Report 112, Vicroads CULWAY data …so that substitution to B-doubles is driving the increase in load for articulated trucks as a class

13. There is scope for further substitution to B-doubles The increase is truck travel will be slower than the increase in freight Per unit of freight: –Lower environmental costs –Lower safety costs –Lower road wear costs Increase in average load is expected to continue

14. Truck travel will grow slower than road freight Source: BTRE (2005, 2006)

15. Implementation of performance based standards (PBS) Possible expansion of B-triple network Future regulatory changes

16. Performance Based Standards could reduce truck travel by a further 5 % Source: BTRE (2005, 2006)

17. Expansion of B-triple network to inter-capital routes could reduce truck travel by a further 4% Source: BTRE (2005, 2006)

18. Summary The articulated truck freight task will increase by 69 per cent by 2020 Articulated truck travel will increase by 29 per cent by 2020 With no further regulatory changes, articulated truck travel per unit of freight will be 35 per cent lower in 2020 Performance Based Standards could reduce truck travel by a further 5 % B-triples on inter-capital routes could reduce truck travel by a further 4 %

19. References ABS, Survey of Motor Vehicle Use BTRE 2006, Freight Measurement and Modelling, Report 112 BTRE 2005, Greenhouse gas emissions from Australian transport: Base Case Projections to 2020, Report for the Australian Greenhouse Office NRTC 2001, Performance-Based Standards Policy Framework for Heavy Vehicle Regulation, Regulatory Impact Statement, May