Crop Yield Appraisal and Forecasting - Decision Support under Uncertain Climates

Climate and Agriculture Climate is the major driver of agriculture What to plant Where to plant it How to manage it Soils play a major role Other factors Human needs, market availability & access, etc.

Farming is a Risky Business   Excess Rainfall, Flooding   Drought   Freezes   Wind   Hurricanes, Tornados   Seasonal variations in temperature, timing and amounts of rainfall – not as dramatic, but major impacts

Daily Weather Effects Temperature Vegetative and reproductive development, duration of crop season Vegetative and reproductive development, duration of crop season Leaf area expansion Leaf area expansion Photosynthesis Photosynthesis Dry matter partitioning, grain vs. vegetative Dry matter partitioning, grain vs. vegetative Potential evapotranspiration, water stress Potential evapotranspiration, water stress Soil organic matter transformations, nutrient availability Soil organic matter transformations, nutrient availability

Daily Weather Effects Rainfall Soil Water Availability Soil Water Availability Water stress and its effects on growth processes Water stress and its effects on growth processes Solar Radiation Photosynthesis Photosynthesis Potential evapotranspiration, thus actual evapotranspiration and plant water stress Potential evapotranspiration, thus actual evapotranspiration and plant water stress Temperature in soil & canopy (microclimate) Temperature in soil & canopy (microclimate)

Daily Weather Effects CO 2 Photosynthesis Potential evapotranspiration & crop water use Daylength Reproductive development Dry matter partitioning

Climate Change Increase in CO 2 and Temperature

Climate Change and Climate Variability The impact of climate change and climate variability on agricultural production and the potential for mitigation and adaptation Future issues can only be studied with computer simulation models Future issues can only be studied with computer simulation models “What-If” type of scenarios “What-If” type of scenarios Risks and uncertainties associated with using models Risks and uncertainties associated with using models Involvement of stakeholders Involvement of stakeholders

Climate Forecast Applications: Bridging the gap between producers and users of climate information Discover user needs for climate information and perceptions of climate risks Evaluate usefulness and limitations of climate forecasts Translate climate forecasts into decision support for agriculture Demonstrate successful forecast applications working in close collaboration with agricultural extension

Climate Change: How is Agriculture Responding? Support Industries, Institutions Support Industries, Institutions Research (e.g., soil carbon sequestration, technologies for production, harvesting, storing, packaging, transport, and marketing)Research (e.g., soil carbon sequestration, technologies for production, harvesting, storing, packaging, transport, and marketing) Plant breeding, producing heat/drought tolerant & disease resistant cropsPlant breeding, producing heat/drought tolerant & disease resistant crops Producers, local level Producers, local level High interest in risk management & climate variabilityHigh interest in risk management & climate variability Long term investments?Long term investments?

Local Lessons Learned High level of interest in weather High level of interest in weather Interest in climate, but this interest has to be developed locally Interest in climate, but this interest has to be developed locally Individual farmers, ranchers, forestersIndividual farmers, ranchers, foresters Institutions (i.e., Extension, researchers)Institutions (i.e., Extension, researchers) Research alone is not sufficient; participatory, co-learning approach is essential Research alone is not sufficient; participatory, co-learning approach is essential Extension Service involvement is key to successful delivery of information to farmers and other stakeholders Extension Service involvement is key to successful delivery of information to farmers and other stakeholders

Local Lessons Learned Integrated initiatives are needed, participatory approach for co-learning and dissemination involving a wide range of talents and institutions Integrated initiatives are needed, participatory approach for co-learning and dissemination involving a wide range of talents and institutions Ultimately, impacts of climate change on agriculture hinges on changes in climate variability and extreme events Ultimately, impacts of climate change on agriculture hinges on changes in climate variability and extreme events Ultimately, impacts of climate change on agriculture hinges on farmers being able to prepare and adapt Ultimately, impacts of climate change on agriculture hinges on farmers being able to prepare and adapt