1. Climate Futures for Tasmania Steve Wilson TIAR/School of Agricultural Science University of Tasmania

2. The world in 2040: Predicted higher carbon dioxide higher average temperature higher average rainfall higher average humidity Unknown local climate and weather physical and economic impacts opportunities

3. GCM Temperature Prediction to 2070

4. Australia in 2030 Rainfall: decrease 2-5% in the south mainly in winter and spring. No change in the north. Evapotranspiration: increase Australia wide of 2% Drought: various measures but projected to increase frequency and intensity Temperature: overall 0.9 o C, greater inland less on coast. Increased frequency of extreme temperature days Wind: generally increased wind flow, but projected decrease in summer at 40 o S Drivers: El Nino to become drier, SAM positive shift causing weaker westerly wind flows

5. Devil in the detail? Queensland Fruit fly: winter soil temperature threshold for pupal survival is unknown (9.7 o C for Med-fly) Wine grapes: wine quality and summer temperatures

6. Increasing soil temperatures Real data for a forgotten environment?

7. From Meats (2004) The range for Queensland fruitfly: air temperature? rainfall? soil temperature?

8. Wine quality: decrease in traditional areas? more suitable land in Tasmania

9. Background Previous study for Hydro Tasmania, results published 2005 One model – extended to 2040 with a focus on catchment inflow data Previous study for Hydro Tasmania, results published 2005 One model – extended to 2040 with a focus on catchment inflow data

10. Tasmania in 2040: Predicted Rainfall no change to slight decrease in annual total increase in winter and early spring Temperature insignificant to small increase in mean daily maxima small increase in mean daily minima significant (1 o C) increase in winter-early summer minima Wind and evaporation small increases in both wind speed and potential evaporation Unknown frost frequency and intensity frequency, duration and distribution of extended rain events

11. This Project  ACE CRC in collaboration with others  3 year project, building on the work undertaken for Hydro Tasmania  Delivering results applicable to range of Tasmanian stakeholders  Producing results on a range of possible futures, out to 2100  ACE CRC in collaboration with others  3 year project, building on the work undertaken for Hydro Tasmania  Delivering results applicable to range of Tasmanian stakeholders  Producing results on a range of possible futures, out to 2100

12. Structure Fine-scale (10-15 km resolution) climate projections for Tasmania under a range of accepted greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Model outputs will be tailored for specific applications: Water - catchments and reservoirs Extreme events Climate impacts on agriculture and other industries Fine-scale (10-15 km resolution) climate projections for Tasmania under a range of accepted greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Model outputs will be tailored for specific applications: Water - catchments and reservoirs Extreme events Climate impacts on agriculture and other industries

13. Outputs  Assessments of the range of climate conditions likely to be experienced across Tasmania over the next 90 years (to 2100);  Reports on future projections for key variables identified as important by end users  Climate model outputs provided for input into operational models by collaborating end-users;  Raw model results for all estimated variables will be stored and available on-line for further research or application.  Assessments of the range of climate conditions likely to be experienced across Tasmania over the next 90 years (to 2100);  Reports on future projections for key variables identified as important by end users  Climate model outputs provided for input into operational models by collaborating end-users;  Raw model results for all estimated variables will be stored and available on-line for further research or application.

14. Water Sample information: runoff and catchment yields, evaporation rates Research providers: Hydro Tasmania, DPIW, ACE CRC Primary End Users: Hydro Tasmania, water authorities, local government, agriculture, forestry Sample information: runoff and catchment yields, evaporation rates Research providers: Hydro Tasmania, DPIW, ACE CRC Primary End Users: Hydro Tasmania, water authorities, local government, agriculture, forestry

15. Extreme Events Sample information: fire weather, storm surges, high intensity rainfall events, extreme wind events Research providers: SES, CSIRO, BOM, ACE CRC Primary End Users: SES, Local Government, Aurora, Transend, Fire Service Sample information: fire weather, storm surges, high intensity rainfall events, extreme wind events Research providers: SES, CSIRO, BOM, ACE CRC Primary End Users: SES, Local Government, Aurora, Transend, Fire Service

16. General Climate Impacts Sample data: seasonal and spatial rainfall distribution, seasonal maximum, minimum and average air and soil temperatures, evaporation and wind flow. Research providers: TIAR, DPIW, CSIRO, BOM, ACE CRC Primary End Users: Agriculture, Forestry, Local Government, Hydro, Aurora, Transend, SES, DPIW Sample data: seasonal and spatial rainfall distribution, seasonal maximum, minimum and average air and soil temperatures, evaporation and wind flow. Research providers: TIAR, DPIW, CSIRO, BOM, ACE CRC Primary End Users: Agriculture, Forestry, Local Government, Hydro, Aurora, Transend, SES, DPIW

17. Outcomes  Industries, government utility and services agencies and communities informed about likely climate conditions in coming decades  A database for planning adaptation strategies  Advanced warning of key vulnerabilities to climate change for risk mitigation  Identification and awareness of industry opportunities and the capacity to plan to take maximum advantage of likely changes in climate.  Industries, government utility and services agencies and communities informed about likely climate conditions in coming decades  A database for planning adaptation strategies  Advanced warning of key vulnerabilities to climate change for risk mitigation  Identification and awareness of industry opportunities and the capacity to plan to take maximum advantage of likely changes in climate.

18. Timing Primary analysis All new climate prediction model runs complete by end 2009 Secondary analysis Preliminary analysis/modelling within the three components using output from the existing Hydro Tasmania model in 2008 Incorporation of new model outputs into secondary models and vulnerability/opportunity analyses in years 2 and 3 Primary analysis All new climate prediction model runs complete by end 2009 Secondary analysis Preliminary analysis/modelling within the three components using output from the existing Hydro Tasmania model in 2008 Incorporation of new model outputs into secondary models and vulnerability/opportunity analyses in years 2 and 3

19. TIAR activities  Links with other agencies and organisations  Links with community - extension and information flow  Outputs available for all current research and development programs  Climate change as a research priority area - impacts, adaptation and opportunities  Funding for new research programs  Beyond 2010?  Links with other agencies and organisations  Links with community - extension and information flow  Outputs available for all current research and development programs  Climate change as a research priority area - impacts, adaptation and opportunities  Funding for new research programs  Beyond 2010?