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Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering Climate Information & Decision Support Systems.

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Presentation on theme: "Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering Climate Information & Decision Support Systems."— Presentation transcript:

1 Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering Climate Information & Decision Support Systems

2 Dual-purpose of Climate DSS Education Service C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

3 Drivers of climate variability and change (ENSO, long-term climate projections) Effects and potential implications on the SE Climate and worldwide Impacts of variability/change on agricultural commodities and water resources Risk mitigation and adaptation strategies Improve resource use efficiency (irrigation management, carbon & water footprints) Education Components How cover crops, pasture-based rotation systems, variable rate irrigation help mitigating climate-related risk? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

4 Climate monitoring Short-term and seasonal forecasts Translation to ag- related variables (Degree-days, chill hours, crop yield) Alert systems (freezes, disease risk) Service Components NOAA monitors the Pacific Ocean but UF-IFAS monitors your field! C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

5 Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions Monitoring & Weather Forecast What field can I work on this afternoon? When can I plant my seeds? Should I apply N fertilizer to my fields? Will it be dry enough to harvest? Should I cut hay today? Cold protection tonight? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Flooded peanut field. Doug Mayo – August 2013. Blueberry freeze, UF-IFAS, February 2002.

6 Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions Seasonal Climate Forecast Strategic Decisions Best crop/variety to plant this season? How much should I invest in fertilizer? How to apply N? Should I purchase/increase crop insurance coverage? Marketing decisions? Should I invest in winter pasture or feed? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

7 Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions Long-term Climate Projections ? ? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS * Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national policy and long-term planning Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult! One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions”

8 Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions Long-term Climate Projections ? ? How do I become more resilient to climate extremes? Should I invest in land somewhere else? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult! One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions” C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS * Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national or regional planning

9 Dual-Purpose of Climate DSS – Our Vision Timeframe Priority / Intensity Climate Monitoring Short-term forecast Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection Service Education Should we concentrate efforts here? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Fraisse et al. 2014. Dual-purpose of climate DSS (in preparation).

10 Different Perspectives of the Same Problem Timeframe Intensity Climate Monitoring Short-term forecast Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection Forecast Confidence Uncertainty C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

11 Different Perspectives of the Same Problem Timeframe Intensity Climate Monitoring Short-term forecast Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection Smartphones Web-based DSS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

12 Different Perspectives of the Same Problem Timeframe Temporal resolution Climate Monitoring Short-term forecast Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection Information Temporal Resolution C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

13 Adaptation Strategies (seasonal variability and climate change) Resilient production systems One Cropping Season Multiple Cropping Seasons One to several generations Weather Monitoring & Forecast Climate Change Weather monitoring Short term forecast Climate change scenarios Scale of climate variability Seasonal Climate Variability Our Vision for AgroClimate Seasonal forecast Producers, Natural Resource Managers From climate variability to climate change: Challenges and opportunities to extension (Fraisse et al. 2009). Research Fraisse, C.W. Agricultural & Biological Engineering University of Florida-IFAS Climate Extension

14 HOME TOOLS FORECASTS STATE SUMMARIES MANAGEMENT CLIMATE EXTENSION ABOUT

15 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

16 Examples of questions that AgroClimate can help answering 1.Effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in our climate? 2.Levels of water stress in the SE? 3.Typical carbon footprint of corn produced in the SE USA? 4.Current strawberry disease risk? Should I apply fungicide? 5.Best peanut planting dates during La Niña years (water stress)? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

17

18 AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

19 AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

20 AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

21 AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

22 AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Average rainfall – Neutral years

23 AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Average rainfall – El Niño years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

24 AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average – El Niño years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

25 AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average La Niña years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

26 AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability distribution – Rainfall La Niña years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

27 AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years 37% C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

28 AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years 63% C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

29 AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, current year C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

30 AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, last 5 years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

31 Number of days with moderate or high Botrytis risk in Plant City, FL Chill accumulation (hours per season), Marion County, FL. ENSO Impacts El Niño La Niña

32 AgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

33 AgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

34 AgroClimate tools: Carbon footprint calculator - StrawberryAgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

35 AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

36 AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

37 AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

38 SAS App Monitors infection risk for Anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot Users receive notification messages when the model detects a potential infection risk according to observed weather conditions.

39 1.Weather and crop monitoring 2.Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

40 1.Weather and crop monitoring 2.Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

41 1.Weather and crop monitoring 2.Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

42 1.Weather and crop monitoring 2.Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

43 1.Weather and crop monitoring 2.Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

44 SAS – Behind the DSS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

45 AgroClimate Management: Conservatoin Tillage C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

46 Thank you! Interested in organizing an AgroClimate workshop in your area? Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering University of Florida – IFAS– 352-392-1864 ext 271 cfraisse@ufl.edu

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