1. Climate Change and Development Victor Orindi African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS), Nairobi. Workshop on Climate Change and Poverty Eradication, November 18, 2005

2. 1. Relationship between climate change and development –CC affect the likelihood of success of development initiatives –Development initiatives may increase resilience or vulnerability to climate change –Measures aimed at adaptation also address poverty reduction

3. 2. Country Background Economy largely dependant on agriculture. Other important sectors like tourism, energy, water and health are also climate sensitive. Economy largely dependant on agriculture. Other important sectors like tourism, energy, water and health are also climate sensitive. Poverty levels are high (>53% ) but even higher among rural population Poverty levels are high (>53% ) but even higher among rural population 80% of the country is ASAL (zone iv-vii) receiving rainfall of <500mm 80% of the country is ASAL (zone iv-vii) receiving rainfall of <500mm

4. 3.Future Climate Scenarios in Kenya Declining rainfall in ASALS (adversely affecting food production) Declining rainfall in ASALS (adversely affecting food production) Increased occurrence of extreme climatic events (drought and floods) Increased occurrence of extreme climatic events (drought and floods) Increased incidences of climate sensitive diseases Increased incidences of climate sensitive diseases Sea level rise- coastal infrastructure, tourism. Sea level rise- coastal infrastructure, tourism.

5. 4a. Agriculture and Food Security Agriculture faced with many challenges even without CC (Increasing Pop, declining soil fertility, Increasing indebtness and isolation from markets) Agriculture faced with many challenges even without CC (Increasing Pop, declining soil fertility, Increasing indebtness and isolation from markets) Climate Variability (esp rainfall) is an additional and major constraint to productivity Climate Variability (esp rainfall) is an additional and major constraint to productivity  Limited adoption of Improved technology + Investment in agric. Food Production becoming more vulnerable to CV as Rainfed agriculture moves into marginal areas Food Production becoming more vulnerable to CV as Rainfed agriculture moves into marginal areas

6. 4b. Addressing the problem Incorporate seasonal forecasts into decision making to increase uptake of improved technologies Incorporate seasonal forecasts into decision making to increase uptake of improved technologies –developing reliable indicators, –Improve on extension New Risk of pest and diseases New Risk of pest and diseases Reforming agricultural policies have not been supportive of subsistence farming/pastoral Development. Reforming agricultural policies have not been supportive of subsistence farming/pastoral Development.

7. 5. Climate Change and Health CV/Climate anomalies Key drivers in the increased incidence and spread of climate sensitive diseases (malaria, dengue, cholera, meningitis, rift valley fever etc) CV/Climate anomalies Key drivers in the increased incidence and spread of climate sensitive diseases (malaria, dengue, cholera, meningitis, rift valley fever etc) Malaria epidemics associated more closely with CV than temperature increase Malaria epidemics associated more closely with CV than temperature increase Policy of quick diagnosis and effective treatment not working. Policy of quick diagnosis and effective treatment not working. Other important factors (Poverty, Drug resistance, demographic, land use changes etc) Other important factors (Poverty, Drug resistance, demographic, land use changes etc) Need to address other factors (e.g. poverty, attitude, vulnerable groups) Need to address other factors (e.g. poverty, attitude, vulnerable groups)

8. 6. Climate Change and Water Resources Kenya is a water scarce country. Kenya is a water scarce country. Surface water resources strongly influenced by climatic factors + Rare in dry areas Surface water resources strongly influenced by climatic factors + Rare in dry areas Ground water resources has a considerable time lag Ground water resources has a considerable time lag Future water development will focus increasingly on ground water but available information remains largely inaccessible Future water development will focus increasingly on ground water but available information remains largely inaccessible Limited access in some areas due to poor laws/policies and/or management Limited access in some areas due to poor laws/policies and/or management Challenge is managing increasing water demand together with climate variability/change Challenge is managing increasing water demand together with climate variability/change

9. 6b. Water Contd Information on effects of climate variability/change on water quality, quantity needed for better management Information on effects of climate variability/change on water quality, quantity needed for better management Many reforms in the water sector (New laws/regulations /institutions, privatization) being implemented hurriedly- donor conditionality? Many reforms in the water sector (New laws/regulations /institutions, privatization) being implemented hurriedly- donor conditionality? Focus too narrow (drinking water; need to focus broadly on productive uses). Focus too narrow (drinking water; need to focus broadly on productive uses). Conflicts- decreasing water availability & inadequacy of current mgt systems? Conflicts- decreasing water availability & inadequacy of current mgt systems? Integrate Customary systems of water management into the formal laws. Integrate Customary systems of water management into the formal laws. Promote Rainwater Water Harvesting Promote Rainwater Water Harvesting

10. 7a. Climate Related Disasters Frequency (Floods/droughts) has increased of late and may worsen Frequency (Floods/droughts) has increased of late and may worsen Redirection of limited resources to deal with the effects. Redirection of limited resources to deal with the effects. –we are yet to fully recover from the effects of the 1997/98 El-Nino (infrastructure) and the numerous droughts in the recent past.

11. 8.Energy Resources Biomass energy account for 80% of energy consumed Biomass energy account for 80% of energy consumed Electricity mostly comes from the Hydros which are sensitive to change in precipitation. Electricity mostly comes from the Hydros which are sensitive to change in precipitation. –The 1999-2001 drought necessitated the use of diesel engines to reduce the deficit The increasing demand for electricity has surpassed supply The increasing demand for electricity has surpassed supply Possible alternatives include improving access to renewable energy which is not a straight forward thing. Possible alternatives include improving access to renewable energy which is not a straight forward thing. –Despite their many benefits ( efficient and environmentally friendly) their adoption has been very low)

12. Attaining the MDGs 1. Using Climate information for sustainable development. Address why available Climate information and forecasts not used by majority of the vulnerable groups lack of trust on the value of weather forecasting;lack of trust on the value of weather forecasting; poor packaging of information and dissemination methodspoor packaging of information and dissemination methods Timing of forecastsTiming of forecasts Empowering vulnerable communities to use climate information:  Timely  Easy to understand  Give guidance on what needs to be done/ range of options 2. Strengthening IMS- The African environment very diverse (Climate, Productions systems, Institutions etc)- we need to analyze and draw lessons from success stories 3. Greater attention should be paid to the role of private sectors in linking farmers to markets as a potential mechanism for helping “buffer” against the impacts of CV and CC

13. Thank You