Freight & passenger growth on the West Midlands rail network. - Implications for capacity _p18

Current passenger off-peak (trains per hour, sum of both directions) New St Moor St Kings Norton Stourbridge Water Orton Coventry Wolverhampton Stafford Lichfield Tamworth Nuneaton Rugby Rugeley Bham Int Walsall Cannock Aston Camp Hill

Current passenger in 6-hour off-peak

Plus CENTRO-aspired pass. services New St Moor St Kings Norton Tamworth Nuneaton Rugeley Walsall Aldridge Cannock Camp Hill Water Orton

Scenarios – Freight demand Forecasts from MDST study for Network Rail (Freight Market Study) –Current, 2023/4, 2033/4, 2043/4 (Focus on 2033/4) –Increased fuel & wages: Bad for road = good for rail –Additional rail-connected warehousing nationally –20% increase in operational days per week and intermodal train length with equivalent improvements for road –No Avonmouth deep sea container port Locally, assumptions include: –South Staffs rail-connected warehousing –Cannock intermodal terminal –Rugeley partially converts to biomass –No Bescot intermodal rail freight interchange Key results –Significant freight growth in / through West Midlands –Particularly high growth in intermodal –Coal declines and partly replaced by biomass

Current freight paths: 6-hour off-peak Kingsbury & Birch Coppice Rugeley PS Bescot Sutton Park Lawley St Daw Mill Hams Hall Jaguar

2033/4 freight paths: 6-hour off-peak Cannock Bescot Rugeley PS Sutton Park Lawley St Daw Mill Featherstone / Four Ashes Hams Hall Kingsbury & Birch Coppice Jaguar

Current passenger + freight 6 hr OP

2033/4 passenger + freight

Future congestion hotspots Ryecroft junction Water Orton Aston Bordesley junction Galton junction Kingsbury junction Whitacre junction Stoke Works junc (Bromsgrove) Soho S junc

Unconstrained growth: demand for paths vs capacity Forecast demand for train paths during daytime off peak 6 hours given unconstrained freight paths plus (aspired) passenger services Train path volumes shown are sum in all directions through junctions Theoretical Max capacity assumes existing Timetable Planning Rules “Junction simple-CUI” (JSCUI) calculations imply ‘stand-alone’ junctions Location Theoretical Max capacity Current train paths “junction simple CUI” 2033/4 train paths. “junction simple CUI” Water Orton6 x 30 = %157 87% Ryecroft junc6 x 30 = %10156% Aston6 x 40 = %11949% Galton junc6 x 40 = %10443% Bordesley junc6 x 40 = %10242% Soho South junc6 x 40 = %13355% Kingsbury junc6 x 30 = %10257% Whitacre W junc6 x 40 = %10745% StWkJ (Bromsgrove)6 x 30 = %5832%

Congestion hotspots - commentary Those currently considered very busy (JSCUI%) max. out at 60% utilization (impact of one junction on the next): –Water Orton (60%) Aston (47%) Galton J (51%) & Soho SJ (56%) –Water Orton highest JSCUI with 60% Currently spare capacity through –Ryecroft J (21%) & Bordesley J (21%) Little growth forecast at most currently-busy junctions –Aston (49%) Galton J (43%) & Soho SJ (55%) But large increase at: Bordesley J (42%) –Becomes busy – compromises may allow it to be time-tabled Ryecroft J (56%) & Kingsbury J (57%) –Become very busy – challenging to accommodate Water Orton (87%) - Cannot be accommodated

Findings: Water Orton corridor Water Orton is key bottleneck in West Midlands Strong unconstrained demand would outstrip corridor capacity –needs to be resolved to accommodate future growth Needed to determine (conditional) output requirements of corridor to investigate solutions Water Orton capacity constraint needs to be resolved for Tamworth / Nuneaton local rail service (via Camp Hill) to be launched

Study Findings- Camp Hill South Study has identified potential incremental scheme which does not require S-W-L scheme Kings Norton – Moor St. 3 services/hour + freight feasible –Assumes Kings Norton additional turnback platform off the main line to avoid conflicts with route to New St. Camp Hill chord south could be built first –Could be developed with passive provision for north chord Need to establish business case and viability of options But removal of freight services or signalling upgrade may be required to reliably deliver > 3 services per hour

Concentration of freight sites Cannock Bescot Rugeley PS Sutton Park Lawley St Daw Mill Featherstone / Four Ashes Hams Hall in North East quadrant Opportunity for dedicated freight line connecting Whitacre J with Sutton Park line? –Using reserved route through Hams Hall (2033/4 freight paths in 6-hour off-peak) Kingsbury & Birch Coppice Jaguar

Water Orton – Existing Layout

Summary of problem to solve SLOW Bordesley J / Moor St Landor St – Jaguar etc Nuneaton Sutton Park line FAST New St Tamworth HS2 SORT Water Orton Coleshill Hams Hall Whitacre J Kingsbury J Daw Mill Birch Coppice

Water Orton – partial solutions Divert freight to Stourbridge-Walsall-Lichfield –Easily-switchable trains reduces demand slightly: 157 to 145 –But costs probably not justifiable Whitacre East chord –or chord at Lichfield from WCML towards Rycroft/Sutton Park? Restrictions on freight thru. W. Midlands? –Other freight re-routings involving longer distances & costs –Unpopular with freight operators –Could add to other capacity issues elsewhere (WCML full!) Improved signalling Compromise on fast passenger timings But probably need new tracks for full solution such as: Grade separation at Water Orton and/or Whitacre Junctions Dedicated freight route west of Whitacre Junction

Proposal to Network Rail A solution to Water Orton is required –Start GRIP process –Establish relationship with Strategic Freight Network. Can SFN contribute to enhancement?