1. 3 November 2017
Fraserburgh and Peterhead to Aberdeen Strategic Transport Study: STAG Part 1 Plus
Bob Nicol: Project Director
David Murtagh: Project Manager

2. Presentation Introduction Data Analysis Option Package for Appraisal
Traffic Modelling
Economic Appraisal of Option Packages
STAG Appraisal
Phased delivery of Option Package
Summary

3. Introduction The purpose of the study is to:
Identify and examine the options for improving strategic transport connections between Fraserburgh, Peterhead, and Aberdeen incorporating the Energetica Corridor.
The STAG Part 1 Study identified a range of road and rail based measures to be delivered as part of an Option Package to address the study aims.
This STAG Part 1 Plus Study aimed to fully define what the road based interventions should be.

4. Introduction
To provide a detailed Option Package, the following analysis and appraisal was undertaken:
traffic and accident data analysis
traffic modelling
economic modelling
STAG appraisal
Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention.

5. Data Analysis The data analysis helped shape the final Option Package.
Key findings from the analysis of 2017 traffic data include:
High volume of Heavy Goods Vehicles on A90(T)
Annual Average Daily Traffic flow on the A90(T) in excess of that recommended for a single carriageway
A90(T) Ellon Bypass
A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness
North of the Toll of Birness, on both the A90(T) and A952, traffic volumes within recommended limits for single carriageway

6. Data Analysis Key findings from the accident analysis include:
Perception that study area has high levels of accident rates
Higher number of accidents in study area
Accident statistics show a majority of all accidents on the A90(T) and A952 attributed to poor driving conditions and slippery road surface
North East Casualty Reduction Strategy
Option Package measures will help reduce accident levels

7. Option Package Cortes junction upgrade
Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention.
Toll of Birness junction upgrade
Improvements to A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts

8. Option Package Cortes junction upgrade
A90(T) and A952 targeted overtaking lanes and safety measures
Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention.
Toll of Birness junction upgrade
Improvements to A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts

9. Option Package Cortes junction upgrade
A90(T) and A952 targeted overtaking lanes and safety measures
A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness Dual Carriageway
Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention.
Toll of Birness junction upgrade
Improvements to A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts

10. Option Package Cortes junction upgrade
A90(T) and A952 targeted overtaking lanes and safety measures
A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness Dual Carriageway
A90(T) Ellon Bypass Dual Carriageway
Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention.
Toll of Birness junction upgrade
Improvements to A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts

11. A90(T)/A952 Toll of Birness Roundabout
New 3 arm roundabout at the Toll of Birness
50m in diameter with 2 lanes circulatory and two lanes on all exits
Reduces junction speeds and improves safety
Designed to tie into any future upgrade of the A90(T) from Ellon to the Toll of Birness
Estimated Cost: £0.97m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

12. A90(T)/A952 Toll of Birness Grade Separated Junction
New grade separated junction at the Toll of Birness
Removes priority conflicts and improves safety
Requires the A90(T) to be upgraded to dual carriageway, south of Toll of Birness
Estimated Cost: £8.2m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

13. A90(T)/A952 Cortes Junction
New 3 arm roundabout at the Cortes
45m diameter with two entry lanes
Reduces junction speeds and improves safety
Estimated Cost: £0.90m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

14. A90(T)/A948 Ellon Bypass Roundabouts
Northern Roundabout (A90(T)/A948)
Increase in size to 60m diameter
Increase to two lanes on all entry and exit arms
Additional northbound left filter lane
Designed to tie into any future upgrade of the A90(T) Ellon Bypass
Estimated Cost: £1.4m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

15. A90(T)/B9005 Ellon Bypass Roundabout
Southern Roundabout (A90(T)/B9005)
Increase in size to 60m diameter
Two lane northbound exit to Ellon Bypass
Designed to tie into any future upgrade of the A90(T) Ellon Bypass
Estimated Cost: £0.20m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

16. Overtaking Lanes on A90(T) and A952
Identification and improvements of overtaking sections
Existing sections of two-way carriageway where alignment allows overtaking
Identification of new overtaking lanes
Two lanes in one direction to facilitate overtaking
Estimated Cost per section: £1.2m to £3.6m (2017 prices with optimism bias)
Route Action Plan should be developed for the A90(T) and A925 to facilitate delivery of improved overtaking opportunities

17. Safety Measures on A90(T) and A952
A range of safety measures have been identified:
Right turn refuges on the A90(T) and A952
Accident reduction measures on the A90(T) and A952
Speed limit changes
Skid-resistant surfaces
Road realignment
Improved signage, road markings, road barriers
Route Action Plan should be developed for the A90(T) and A925 to deliver a full set of targeted safety improvements

18. A90(T) Ellon to the Toll of Birness Dual Carriageway
5km dual carriageway class road between Ellon and the Toll of Birness
Designed to tie in with the junction proposals at A90(T)/A948 and Toll of Birness
Estimated Cost: £19m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

19. A90(T) Ellon Bypass Dual Carriageway
Three possible A90(T) Ellon Bypass options have been proposed:
Dual carriageway on the southern section (B9005 to River Ythan bridge) Estimated Cost: £6m (2017 prices with optimism bias)
Dual carriageway on the southern and northern sections, narrowing to one lane for existing bridge Estimated Cost: £9m (2017 prices with optimism bias)
Full length dual carriageway including widening of River Ythan bridge Estimated Cost: £18m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

20. A90(T) Ellon Bypass Dual Carriageway
Three possible A90(T) Ellon Bypass upgrades have been proposed.
Key environmental and physical constraints will impact on route upgrade
Construction of full length dual carriageway can be phased
Designed to tie in with junction proposals at the B9005 and A948

21. Option Package Summary
Toll of Birness junction upgrades
Cortes roundabout
A90(T) and A952 targeted overtaking lanes and safety measures
A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness Dual Carriageway
A90(T) Ellon Bypass Dual Carriageway
Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention.
Improvements to A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts

22. Analysis of Option Package
In order to ensure that the interventions in the Option Package met the study aims and their impacts were fully understood further analysis was undertaken:
Traffic modelling
Economic appraisal
STAG appraisal
Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention.

23. Traffic Modelling – Ellon and the Toll of Birness
Ellon to Toll of Birness S-Paramics Model

24. Traffic Modelling – Ellon and the Toll of Birness
The traffic model tested the following proposed infrastructure:
Toll of Birness roundabout option
Toll of Birness grade separated junction option
A90(T)/A948 roundabout improvements
A90(T)/B9005 roundabout improvements
A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness dual carriageway
A90(T) Ellon Bypass dual carriageway with narrow bridge
The traffic model included the proposed 2012 Local Development Plan allocations, including significant proposals at:
Ellon (>1000 houses, primary school, 30ha employment)
Mintlaw (>1000 houses)
The model simulates future traffic conditions if high levels of development are achieved

25. Traffic Modelling – Ellon and the Toll of Birness
With no infrastructure improvements, large queues (>1km) form on the A952 southbound approach to the Toll of Birness
Increase likelihood of accidents
Vehicles will potentially take unsafe gaps onto high speed A90(T) and cross two lanes of traffic
The model tested a roundabout and a grade separated junction at the Toll of Birness
Both junctions remove congestion and significantly reduce journey times
Both junctions allow for safe movement of all vehicles
Improvements at the Toll of Birness releases traffic southbound to Ellon and the model shows that junction improvements are required at both Ellon Bypass roundabouts

26. Traffic Modelling – Cortes Junction
Cortes Junction S-Paramics Model
Future year model representing high levels of traffic growth
No issue with congestion
Increased flows on A90(T) and A952 may increase likelihood of accidents
The model tested a new roundabout at the junction
The roundabout operates well and allows for the safe movement of all vehicles

27. Traffic Modelling Conclusions from the traffic modelling:
Junction improvements at the Toll of Birness are required to reduce significant congestion on the A952 southbound if growth is realised
Without improvements, vehicles may attempt to take unsafe gaps to enter the A90(T)
The proposed roundabout and the grade separated junction perform similarly with comparable improvements to journey times and queue lengths
Junction improvements at the Toll of Birness increase traffic reaching the A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts and any mitigation here should take account of this
A new roundabout at Cortes junction operates well and does not increase congestion and removes conflicting turning movements

28. Economic Appraisal
An economic appraisal exercise was undertaken using Transport Scotland’s Programme for Economic Assessment of Road Schemes (PEARS)
The measures in the Option Package were combined to reflect the possible phased approach to road improvements:
Test 1 – new roundabout at the Toll of Birness, improvements at A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts
Test 2a – as Test 1 with A90(T) dual carriageway between Ellon and the Toll of Birness
Test 2b – as Test 2a but with a grade separated junction at the Toll of Birness
Tests 3-5 – as Tests 2a/2b with phased delivery of A90(T) Ellon Bypass dual carriageway
To ensure robust outputs, the analysis was undertaken using high and low growth traffic growth assumptions

29. Economic Appraisal Key outcomes from the Economic Appraisal were:
Test 1 (lowest cost test) can be considered the most economically viable due to the large journey time savings realised at relatively low cost
The provision of a roundabout at Toll of Birness and associated improvements at the A90(T) Ellon Bypass junctions would provide economic benefit under both low (BCR 1.9) and high (BCR 56.2) growth scenarios as well as in current traffic conditions
Under low growth assumptions, the provision of a grade separated junction at the Toll of Birness is not economically viable

30. Economic Appraisal
Under high growth assumptions, all interventions can be considered economically viable, offering a return for investment and ensuring that there is sufficient capacity to accommodate high levels of development
The outcomes support a phased
approach to infrastructure
provision

31. STAG Appraisal
To finalise the study, a qualitative appraisal was undertaken of the fully phased Option Package against:
The study Transport Planning Objective
The STAG criteria
The Risk Criteria – Feasibility, Affordability and Public Acceptability
Established Policy Directives

32. Phased Delivery of Option Package
The traffic and economic modelling suggest that phased delivery of the interventions in the Option Package would provide the most benefit.
Total Estimated Cost of Option Package: £35m – £52m
Short Term
A90(T)/A952 the Toll of Birness roundabout
A90(T)/A952 Cortes roundabout
A90(T)/B9005
A90(T)/A948
Overtaking Lanes on A90(T) and A952
Safety Improvements on A90(T) and A952
Medium Term
A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness Dual Carriageway
Long Term
A90(T) Ellon Bypass Dual Carriageway
(three proposed options)
Estimated Cost:
£10m - £15m
£19m
£6m - £18m

33. Summary
The STAG Part 1 Plus study has defined a road based Option Package to improve safety and connectivity between Fraserburgh, Peterhead and Aberdeen
A comprehensive range of road based interventions can be designed to have their construction order phased so that:
Low cost and low complexity schemes can provide significant initial benefit to all road users in the area
Route Action Plans facilitate overtaking and road safety improvements
As local development increases, further interventions to improve road safety and journey time reliability (such as upgrading to dual carriageway) can be introduced to accommodate any increase in traffic using the key strategic routes of the A90(T) and the A952