NRC FLIS Annual Meeting Policy Uses of National Environment Outlook Information: Perspectives from the Caribbean Laszlo Pinter, PhD NRC FLIS Annual Meeting Ljubljana, Slovenia February 16-17, 2012 L. Pinter

Rationale Regarding MEA implementation….. “Tendency not to take on a specific MEA and due to perception it belongs to a single Ministry and not relevant to others” “What is the national development plan and how does the MEA fit into this. Need to show that the MEA fits into the plan and is not additional work.” “They need to highlight what the national benefit is of the MEAs. The minister needs to see how and why it is good for the country” L. Pinter

Rationale Regarding Integrated Environmental Assessment and Reporting… “They are not useful because by the time the documents is compiled and published the information is old, no longer relevant” “Knowledge is required to change culture…How will my livelihood be impacted by the change in the environment? “The best type of information in these reports are best practices. This makes it real for the decision makers, otherwise the information is intangible” L. Pinter

L. Pinter

MEA Outcome Planning IMPLEMENTATION AND REPORTING #1 Clarify Focal MEAs, Status and Linkages with Development Priorities #6 Prepare MEA Policy Planning Brief #2 Identify Synergies Among Focal MEAs MEA Outcome Planning #3 Articulate Desired Future Outcomes #5 Assess Risks and Opportunities and Improve and Adapt as Necessary #4 Identify Portfolio of MEA Policies for Achieving Future Outcomes L. Pinter

MEA Outcome Planning IMPLEMENTATION AND REPORTING #1 Clarify Focal MEAs, Status and Linkages with Development Priorities Tool #1: MEA Priorities Mapping using Ecosystem - Wellbeing Linkages #6 Prepare MEA Policy Planning Brief #2 Identify Synergies Among Focal MEAs Tool #6: Policy Planning Brief Tool #2: MEA Synergy Mapping using DPSIR Analysis MEA Outcome Planning Tool #5: Policy Stress Testing using Existing Scenarios #3 Articulate Desired Future Outcomes #5 Assess Risks and Opportunities and Improve and Adapt as Necessary Tool #3: Setting the Challenge Scenario #4 Identify Portfolio of MEA Policies for Achieving Future Outcomes Tool #4: Policy Mapping and Back-casting L. Pinter

Demonstrating the Relevance of MEAs to National and Sector Priorities Using Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) Tools Step 1

Tool #1 Priorities Mapping Development Priority MEA Using ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments and national and sectoral priorities

Example Impact Pathway Diagram Change in Coastal Water Quality Cultural – a change in the ability of the reef to provide recreation and eco-tourism opportunities Livelihoods – of local residents Health – of local residents that snorkel or dive the reef for recreation

Analytic steps Step #1: Identifying Human Wellbeing Aspects Step #2: Identifying Ecosystem Services Step #3: Identifying Linkages Between Human Wellbeing and Ecosystem Services Step #4: Compile data on current status, trends and scenarios for human wellbeing aspects and ecosystem services Step #5: Develop compelling narrative demonstrating the importance of MEA commitments to national development priorities L. Pinter

National or Sectoral Development Priority Human Wellbeing Aspects (from MA list) Flourishing Tourism Sector Livelihoods Opportunity to express and observe cultural and spiritual values associated with ecosystems Relevant Ecosystem Services (from MA List) State of Environment Aspect of the LBS Food (fish) Quality of Coastal Environment (control, prevent and reduce pollution of marine coastal environment) Genetic resources Ornamental resources Storm protection Recreation and tourism Education

Identifying Synergies Among MEAs Using IEA Tools STEP 2

Tool #2 MEA Synergy Mapping Using ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments, national and sectoral priorities

MEA Synergies Worksheet - EXAMPLE States, Pressures and Drivers MEA Goals and Targets Corresponding to Environmental States, Pressures and Drivers Key Synergies MEA #1 United Nations Frame work Convention on Climate Change MEA #2 United Nations Convention on Combating Desertification States of the Environment List the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific targets cited Atmosphere Climate Change Soil Desertification Climate change intensifies drought intensifying desertification Pressures List the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific targets cited in the MEA and identify line departments having an influence. Rising CO2 from energy use CO2 emissions from land-use changes Land-use intensification Water shortages Application of fertilizers Land use changes increase atmospheric CO2

MEA Synergies Worksheet - EXAMPLE Drivers List the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific targets cited Global resource consumption Population growth Rising affluence International trade Rising food demand land use intensifies increase CO2 Impacts Articulate the primary impacts associated with changes in the environmental state(s). Use the ecosystem services and human wellbeing categories to assist with this analysis. For each wellbeing impact identify line departments who’s priorities may be affected by the impact. Water shortages (impacts on agricultural production, reduced food security) Soil degradation (reduction in crop cultivation, human health and nutrition) Soil degradation (decreased food security, poverty intensifies) 1. Climate change = desertification. 2. Combating desertification may reduce vulnerabilities to climate change impacts on food production.

Envisioning Desired Future MEA Outcomes STEP 3

Not thinking about the future is detrimental to strategy………….

Backcasting Where do we want to go? How do we get there? Where do we want not to go? How do we avoid getting there?

Creating the desired future outcomes Desired future goals based on the MEAS How can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes? Some of our current policies and actions could get us there New policies could be needed to get us to the desired future Need to account for long-term trends and surprises Desired future outcomes expressed as indicators and targets (qualitative and quantitative) relevant for the area/country Present Future

Envisioning desired future MEA outcomes How can we achieve the desired future outcomes? Current economic diversification policy could be used to explore new types of products (from different species) Revising species and planting guidelines to include native tree species Setting quotas for species composition Estimate how the revenues are sensitive to changes in wood prices and new construction demands (what if questions) Desired future outcomes Decrease monoculture forestry by 30% Maintain high and stable timber supply (mil m3 of wood) Achieve at least 80% of current economic returns from forest sector Present Future

MEA Challenge Scenario Worksheet States, Pressures and Drivers MEA Commitments Key Synergies Indicators and Targets MEA #1 MEA #2 States of the Environment List the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific commitments cited Pressures List the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific commitments in the MEA Drivers List the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific commitments cited

Analytic steps Step #1: Highlight the specific MEA goals and specific commitments associated with the environmental states, pressures and drivers Step #2: Identify the relevant indicators for each of the MEA goals/commitments Step #3: List the specific targets articulated in the MEA? If none, review information sources for targets in the order discussed previously L. Pinter

IDENTIFYING A PORTFOLIO OF MEA POLICIES FOR ACHIEVING DESIRED FUTURE OUTCOMES Step 4

Backcasting... (i.e. ”what do we want?”) Sustainable future = ? (What are some basics?) Strategies and actions = ? current reality time University of Delft, 2008

Creating the desired future outcomes Current focus Completed Desired future goals based on the MEAS How can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes? Some of our current policies and actions could get us there Need to account for long-term trends and surprises New policies could be adopted to get us to the desired future Desired future outcomes expressed as indicators (qualitative and quantitative) relevant for the area/country Completed Present Future

Tool #4 Policy Mapping STATE and TRENDS E.g. water IMPACTS Using the Driving Forces- - Pressure – State – Impact – Response analysis framework to map existing policies from a systems perspective STATE and TRENDS E.g. water IMPACTS Aspects of human well-being PRESSURES Anthropogenic and natural Sectors Human influences Natural processes DRIVERS Indirect influence through human development MEA Policy Map Policy 3 Policy 4 Policy 5 Policy 6 Policy 8 Policy 7 Policy 1 Policy 2

Creating a Policy Map – Example DRIVERS Urban Growth PRESSURES Sewage Discharge Sectors Human influences Natural processes Job creation incentives IMPACTS Nutrition and hydration Livelihoods Recreational and Cultural enjoyment Spatial development regulations Food imports Infrastructure expenditures MEA Policy Map Water imports Decreased fish catches Less drinking water Sewer charges Water quality standards In-situ treatment STATE and TRENDS River Water Quality

Policy Analysis Questions Is the current portfolio of policies directed at the MEA sufficient to achieve the desired long-term outcome target? What are the leverage points (D, P, S, I) and are effective policies being directed at these leverage points? Is a mix of instruments being used (economic, regulatory, expenditure, institutional)?

Analytic steps Step #1: Create a policy map for your MEA using the template provided Step #2: Analyse the policy map by addressing the three policy analysis questions Step 3: Make recommendations to address the policy gaps

ASSESSING RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES AND ADAPTATIONS STEP 5

Policy Stress Testing To identify key policy performance risks and uncertainties that could prevent achievement of MEA outcomes To identify key opportunities To improve and adapt the portfolio of policies as necessary to ensure maintain progress toward MEA outcomes

Policy Stress Testing Idea of policy stress testing is to identify key factors that impact on policy performance Then examine policy performance under plausible future conditions that consider the most important and uncertain factors Can use existing scenario information to do this

GEO LAC 3 Scenarios:

GEO LAC 3 Scenarios Overview of the scenarios Relegated Sustainability Sustainability Reforms Unsustainability and Increased Conflicts Transition to Sustainability Overview of the scenarios   A) Relegated Sustainability (RS) –economic growth takes the priority. There is a strong emphasis on market forces which permits rapid economic growth; however at the cost of placing greater pressure on the environment and less advancements in social areas. There is a strong emphasis on continued consumption of natural resources to maintain economic activity, and natural resources are all exposed to market forces. B) Sustainability Reforms (SR)- strong emphasis on developing new policies and regulations to ease the adverse effects of the past preference placed on unregulated markets. While environmental and social problems are eased there is still a strong emphasis on pursuing the market approach to development which prevents significant advancements to be made. Science and technological capacities are strengthened and institutions however only in the identified prioritized areas. Similarly advancements are made in some environmental areas (controlling air pollution) while others persist (land management). More investments in health, education, environment and development assistance provided and new approaches to credit policies there is more rapid progress in achieving social goals without sacrificing economic development. C) Unsustainability and Increased Conflicts (UIC)- this scenario is characterized by a marked socioeconomic and political fragmentation with growing disparities between the rich and poor. Growing inequality and social fragmentation due to low investments in environmental issues and social services is prominent. The control of natural resources remains in the hands of the powerful elite and large corporations and only those that are of their interests are well-preserved. Violence and socio-political conflicts are considerable with strong migratory pressures. D) Transition to Sustainability- this scenario places sustainability first, that is emphasizing the integration of the combination of economic, social and environmental factors, and a greater emphasis on human development. Regional economic integration increases and there is less consumption in materials and natural resources. Migratory pressures are reduced and basic needs are met without growing threats to natural resources. Decision making processes are more transparent and balanced. Economic growth and equal distribution of the wealth is greatest in this scenario and is due to increased investments in health, education, and environmentally sustainable technologies. 34

Policy Stress Test Considering each of the GEO LAC 3 scenarios, address the following questions: Risks: Is achievement of desired MEA target(s) at risk given the plausible future conditions outlined in the scenario? If so, what factors are likely to have the most impact, and how? What adaptations for the portfolio of MEA policies are necessary to mitigate against the potential risks? Opportunities: What opportunities does the scenario present for achieving desired MEA target(s) that have not yet been considered? What actions are necessary for the portfolio of MEA policies to be able to leverage the opportunities that may present themselves in the future?

PREPARING THE MEA POLICY PLANNING BRIEF Session 6

MEA Policy Brief Template 1. Key MEA commitments and their relevance to national development priorities: ...[summarize results from Tool #1 MEA Priorities Mapping]… 2. MEA Synergies and Important Stakeholders within and outside of government: … [summarize the results of Tool #2 MEA Synergies Mapping]… 3. Possible future MEA outcome targets: …[summarize the results of Tool #3 MEA Policy Mapping]… 4. Existing MEA Policy Inventory and Recommendations: …[summarize the results of Tool #4 5. Risks and Opportunities for Achieving MEA Outcomes: ….[summarize the results of Tool #5 Policy Stress Testing]…

Further information: lpinter@iisd.ca http://www.unep.org/ieacp/files/pdf/mea/IEA_Training_Module_MEAs.pdf http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2011/iea_brochure.pdf