RECONSIDERING POLAR4 BY INSTITUTIONAL MISSION GROUP: Russell Group POLAR An examination of POLAR3 for London as background and a reworking of POLAR4 for the Russell Group of universities

POLAR4: a new methodology MSOA level analysis (POLAR3 ward) 09/10 – 14/15 academic years First iteration of POLAR to include all countries, Scotland, Wales and NI as well as England First iteration of POLAR to have no areas with classification with a participation rate of 0. Base population calculated with population forecasts based on census data London median is 8% higher than all other regions (the London effect) 45% of London is in Quintile 5 POLAR4 differs from POLAR3 in two main ways. Firstly, the unit of geography that was used in the calculations of POLAR3 (and indeed POLAR and POLAR2) were parliamentary wards. For POLAR4 MSOAs are used (middle super output areas) which are units of geography that are based on population numbers, rather than parliamentary constituencies. This is preferable as the MSOAs have a more even distribution of population, whereby the minimum population is 5,000 and the mean average is 7,200. POLAR4 covers participation for the academic years 20010/11 through to 2014/15, thereby updating the participation rates of young learners (aged 18 and 19). Alongside this, POLAR4 is the first iteration of POLAR to include all countries in the UK which has enables us to comment on participation rates in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland for the first time.

POLAR4 PROBLEMS MSOA instead of wards is better – however, POLAR4 uses 2011 geography for England, Wales and NI, however the Scottish geography is for 2001 Base population – methodology differs Past POLAR calculations used child benefits data (all children under 16) as baseline POLAR4 uses ONS population projections (these have very wide margins of error – particularly in fast changing cities) One MSOA has a participation rate of nearly 300% RESULT – 8% of London MSOAs have more HE entrants than the underlying population (78 of 983)

RUSSELL GROUP POLAR4 https://continuum.shinyapps.io/russellPOLAR/ We followed the POLAR4 methodology to calculate the participation rates of young learners by mission group – in this instance for Russell Group. We purchased the participation data from HESA for the five cohorts of young people who were aged 15 at the start of the school years that began from 2006 to 2011 (aged 18 or 19 when entering HE) between the years of 2009/10 and 2013/14 (aged 18) or between 2010/11 and 2014/15 (aged 19).

Scotland Indeed there are a number of MSOAs which shift from quintile 5 in overall attendance (the highest quintile) to quintile 1 (the lowest) when only Russell Group institutions are considered. These 17 MSOAs are as follows: As can be seen from the maps below, the urban areas in Scotland mostly fall into the lower participation quintiles (quintile 4 and 5). While there is Russell Group provision in Scotland (University of Glasgow, University of Edinburgh) most learners in Scotland do not attend Russell Group institutions. When we examine the location of independent schools in Scotland, we can see that there is a clear relationship between proximity of these schools with Russell Group university attendance.

Northern Ireland In contrast to Scotland, the Northern Ireland data shows that 53% of MSOAs actually went up in terms of Russell Group participation between one and three quintiles. This represents 469 (out of 890) MSOAs with a further 384 staying at the same level. This can partly be explained by smaller population figures, although there is only one Russell Group institution located here - Queen's University Belfast. Alongside this we know that a significant minority (20% for the 2016/17 year) move across border to study in England. (HESA, 2019) Unlike Scotland, the location of Independent schools seems to have little bearing on the levels of Russell Group attendance. Indeed it is difficult to explain how Northern Ireland fares so well in this analysis in terms of levels of learners going to Russell Group institutions. One consideration however, is the underlying population numbers for NI may be more inaccurate than previously considered. In fact the initial population projections for POLAR4 for Northern Ireland were found to be incorrect, and although these were changed in October 2018 by the Office for Students (see https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/media/d21f248f-7424-4e8f-85ad-60b1261085a0/polar-change-notes-sep18.pdf) there may well be some further underlying issues with the data.

wales The data for Wales shows a similar pattern to Northern Ireland. When we compare the POLAR4 data with the Russel Group POLAR4 data we can see that 63% of MSOAs in Wales remain in the same quintile, however 23% move between 1 and 4 quintiles whereby these MSOAs have an increased participation to Russell Group. Only 14% of MSOAs move toward lower participation (1 or 2) in this comparison. Again this may be explained by lower population figures in the underlying population, alongside regional provision with Cardiff University as well as the proximity of The University of Bristol. When comparing the POLAR4 map of Wales (above) with the POLAR4 Russell Group map (below) it is clear that there is one main area – the Welsh Valleys – which shows low participation in general, and lower participation with the Russell Group institutions. This area is one of long standing socio-economic depravation with associated problems of educational under achievement.

England There are 6791 MSOAs in England (including London, which is handled separately in this analysis). Out of these MSOAs, 63% stay the same between the POLAR4 all and the Russell Group data. A further 12% of MSOAs shift down one quintile, and 2.3% shift down two quintiles. A further 17 shift down three, and one MSOA shifts down four (together these represent 0.2% of the English MSOAs). In terms of up shifts, 15% move up one quintile, with a further 0.5% shifting up two. In a closer examination of the areas that shift up a quintile, many of these areas are in close proximity to Russel Group institutions. For example, several MSOAs around Birmingham, Manchester and Bristol increased participation between one and two quintiles.

London When we look at the MSOAs in London in the POLAR4 versus the POLAR4 Russel Group analysis, we can see considerable shifts in terms of Russell Group attendance. Indeed, the picture of distribution across London is very different, despite 537 MSOAs staying in the same quintile. When examining the Russell Group data, it can easily be seen on the maps that the Eastern part of London and outwards to Essex has a far lower Russell Group participation. We have come to know this sub-region as the “Eastern arc of low participation”. It is in this area that most MSOAs showed lower participation rates into Russell Group by one, two or three quintiles.

London effect First iteration of POLAR to have no areas with classification with a participation rate of 0. London median is 8% higher than all other regions (the London effect) 45% of London is in Quintile 5

London in detail However there were also 15 MSOAs that showed an increase in participation by 1 quintile Overall there were 328 MSOAs which showed lower participation by one quintile, a further 95 by two, and the following 8 lowered participation rates by 3: The MSOAs which have the least Russell Group attendees, which are now in quintile one, are as follows, and should be considered by Russell Group institutions to be areas for consideration for outreach activity. These are as follows:   Barking and Dagenham 001 Barking and Dagenham 009 Barking and Dagenham 010 Barking and Dagenham 012 Barking and Dagenham 013 Barking and Dagenham 014 Barking and Dagenham 018 Barking and Dagenham 022 Bexley 004 Bexley 010 Bromley 009 Croydon 030 Croydon 032 Croydon 036 Enfield 023 Greenwich 007 Greenwich 009 Greenwich 017 Hackney 002 Hackney 004 Haringey 005 Haringey 012 Haringey 015 Haringey 026 Havering 001 Havering 002 Havering 003 Havering 004 Havering 005 Havering 006 Havering 011 Havering 027 Havering 028 Havering 030 Hounslow 023 Hounslow 025 Lewisham 026 Newham 026 Newham 036 Sutton 001 Waltham Forest 009 Lewisham 037 Enfield 037 Haringey 037

Problems In terms of those learners attending Russel Group institutions – some London MSOAs have more than 100% participation rates. MSOA Name Percentage attending RG Merton 002 272 Merton 004 212.12 Barnet 033 131.39 Wandsworth 017 169.38 Hammersmith and Fulham 024 201.75 Westminster 019 238.09 Kensington and Chelsea 011 190.32 Camden 002 164.63 Richmond upon Thames 002 126.63 Kensington and Chelsea 019 184.31 Southwark 031 116.26 Richmond upon Thames 008 172.22 Kensington and Chelsea 007 133.00 Kensington and Chelsea 008 140.54 Hillingdon 001 113.04 Kensington and Chelsea 016 176.47 Wandsworth 015 116.40 Kensington and Chelsea 012 125 Camden 004 114.85 Kensington and Chelsea 010 123.07 Kensington and Chelsea 020 111.94 Wandsworth 006 106.20 Camden 011 111.76 Kensington and Chelsea 018 108.21

Lowest participation rg Tower Hamlets 027 Barking and Dagenham 022 Croydon 032 Havering 004 Croydon 030 Havering 030 Haringey 037 Hackney 002 Havering 001 Lewisham 037

conclusion Despite the problems with the underlying population figures with POLAR4, the dashboard we have developed for the Russell Group institutions is rigorous in its comparison with the overall POLAR4 maps as we used the same methodology and the same underlying populations. Therefore the quintile shifts deal with comparative proportion of learners attending any versus Russell Group institutions, thereby sidestepping the issue of faulty population figures. Despite the problems with the underlying population figures with POLAR4, the dashboard we have developed for the Russell Group institutions is rigorous in its comparison with the overall POLAR4 maps as we used the same methodology and the same underlying populations. Therefore the quintile shifts deal with comparative proportion of learners attending any versus Russell Group institutions, thereby sidestepping the issue of faulty population figures.

Take care POLAR4 highly problematic due to the underlying population problems Use with caution and as one in a basket of measures London - 8% of London MSOAs have more HE entrants than the underlying population (78 of 983)

Contact details Karina Berzins Research Fellow, Continuum, UEL 0208 223 2544 k.e.berzins@uel.ac.uk http://www.uel.ac.uk/continuum/