1. The 2011 Pobal HP Deprivation Index for Small Areas (SA) An Inter-temporal Analysis 2006 - 2011
Dublin, August 2012

2. The 2011 Pobal HP Deprivation Index (SA)
This presentation contains a graphic display of the latest index scores for the Pobal HP Deprivation Index for Small Areas (SA)
The presentation comprises three parts:
A comparison at NUTS 1-4 level of the key social indicators which underlie the HP Deprivation Index, spanning five census waves 1991 to 2011
SA-level maps for the 2011 key indicators, and
SA-level maps for the 2006 and 2011 absolute and relative deprivation scores
For a description of the conceptual underpinnings and statistical features of the HP Deprivation Index, please consult separate presentations

3. Overview of Successive Deprivation Indices, Haase & Pratschke 1996 - 2012
SA n=18,488 06 06 11 06 11
01NI
ED n = 3,409 91 96 86 91 96 91 96 02 91 96 02 06 06 91 96 02 06 11 06 11
01NI
NUTS 4 n = 34 91 96 86 91 96 91 96 02 91 96 02 06 06 91 96 02 06 11 06 11
01NI
NUTS 3 n = 8 91 96 86 91 96 91 96 02 91 96 02 06 06 91 96 02 06 11 06 11
01NI
NUTS 2 n = 2 91 96 86 91 96 91 96 02 91 96 02 06 06 91 96 02 06 11 06 11
01NI
NUTS 1 n = 1 91 96 86 91 96 91 96 02 91 96 02 06 06 91 96 02 06 11 06 11
01NI
Haase et al., 1996
Haase, 1999
Pratschke & Haase, 2001
Pratschke & Haase, 2004
Haase & Pratschke, 2005
Haase & Pratschke, 2008
Level at which model is estimated
Level to which data is aggregated
Haase & Pratschke, 2010
Haase & Pratschke, 2011
Haase & Pratschke, 2012

4. Comparing Key Social Indicators across five Census Waves 1991 - 2011

5. The Underlying Dimensions of Social Disadvantage
Demographic Decline (predominantly rural)
population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population)
Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas)
social class composition, education, housing quality
Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban)
unemployment, lone parents, low skills base

6. Population Change
30 per cent increase between 1991 and 2011
Initial growth faster in S&E Region
Since 2006, faster growth in BMW Region

7. Age Dependency Rate
7 percentage point decline between 1991 and 2006
Rural areas gradually catching up
Reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011, with Age Dependency Rate again increasing

8. Lone Parent Rate 1991 - 2011 Doubling in rate between 1991 and 2006
Highly concentrated in urban areas
Further increase in rural areas between 2006 and 2011
Reversal in trend after 2006 in all cities except Cork

9. Proportion of Adult Population with Primary Education Only 1991 - 2011
50% reduction between 1991 and 2006
Rural areas gradually catching up
Trend continues between 2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower rate

10. Proportion of Adult Population with Third Level Education 1991 - 2011
2½ - fold increase between 1991 and 2006
Urban areas maintaining their relative advantage
Only marginal increase in select areas between 2006 and 2011
Other areas experiencing first marginal decline

11. Proportion of Population in Higher and Lower Professional Classes 1991 - 2011
30% increase between 1991 and 2006
Rural areas slowly catching up during boom years
Overall trend continues between 2006 and 2011
But urban-rural differential is again growing

12. Proportion of Population in Unskilled and Semi-skilled Classes 1991 - 2011
Sharp 40% decline between 1991 and 2006
Rural areas rapidly catching up
Overall trend continues between 2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower rate

13. Male Unemployment rate 1991 - 2011
Rapid decline between 1991 and 2002, halving rates
Rural areas not fully participating in trend
Massive reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011 for all areas
2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in all counties except Dublin City

14. Female Unemployment rate 1991 - 2011
Steady decline between 1991 and 2002, nearly halving rates
Decline in urban areas exceeds that in rural areas
Massive reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011 for all areas
2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in most counties

15. Local Authority Housing 1991 - 2011
Significant decline between 1991 and 2002, particularly in Southern & Eastern Region
Reversal in trend after 2002, with slow increases pertaining since
Imbalance between rural and urban provision gradually diminishing

16. Privately rented Housing 1991 - 2011
Strongly concentrated in the cities
Steady increase between 1991 and 2006, in both urban and rural counties
Steep increase between 2006 and 2011

17. Owner occupied Housing 1991 - 2011
Rates in rural counties much higher than in urban counties
Steady decline between 1991 and 2006
Accelerated decline between 2006 and 2011, in both urban and rural locations

18. Average Number of Persons per Room 1991 - 2011
Significant improvement over time
Rural densities falling below urban for the first time in 2002
Urban densities remain unchanged after 2006, but rural densities continue to fall

19. Mapping Key Social Indicators (SA)
2011
The following maps are broadly based on quintile distributions of each of the ten indicators which underlie the Pobal HP Deprivation Index

20. 5 Year Population Change 2006- 2011
Strongest growth in urban peripheries
Strongest decline in (remote) rural areas

21. Age Dependency Rate 2011 Lower rates in urban peripheries
Highest rates in (remote) rural areas

22. Lone Parent Rate 2011 Overwhelmingly urban phenomenon
Reaching over 50% in disadvantaged city areas

23. Proportion of Adult Population with Primary Education Only 2011
Lowest in urban periphery
Highest in remote rural areas
Cities containing both extremes

24. Proportion of Adult Population with Third Level Education 2011
Mirror image of low education
Highest in urban periphery
Lowest in remote rural areas
Cities containing both extremes

25. Proportion of Population in Higher and Lower Professional Classes 2011
Similar to high education
Highest in urban periphery
Lowest in remote rural areas
Cities containing both extremes

26. Proportion of Population in Unskilled and Semi-skilled Classes 2011
Mirror image to professional classes
Lowest in urban periphery
Highest in remote rural areas
Cities containing both extremes

27. Male Unemployment rate 2011
The spatial distribution of male unemployment rates increasingly reflect the social class composition of local areas
Munster shows relatively favourable labour market conditions

28. Female Unemployment rate 2011
Female unemployment rates in 2011 closely resemble male unemployment rates in their spatial distribution

29. Local Authority Housing 2011
Primarily associated with disadvantaged urban areas

30. Privately rented Housing 2011
Exclusively urban with considerable presence in affluent areas

31. Owner occupied Housing 2011
Predominantly rural
Low urban rates are not necessarily related to social disadvantage

32. Average Number of Persons per Room 2011
High rates in the average number of persons per room are a predominantly urban phenomenon

33. The Pobal HP Deprivation Index (SA) Small Area Analysis, 2006 - 2011

34. Pobal HP Deprivation Index
Basic Model of the
Pobal HP Deprivation Index d
Age Dependency Rate 1
Demographic d
Population Change
Growth 2 d
Primary Education only 3 d
Third Level Education 4 d
Persons per Room 5
Social Class
Composition d
Professional Classes 6 d
Semi- and Unskilled Classes 7 d
Lone Parents 8
Labour Market d
Male Unemployment Rate
Situation 9 d
Female Unemployment Rate 10

35. Mapping Deprivation most disadvantaged most affluent
marginally below the average
marginally above the average
disadvantaged
affluent
very disadvantaged
very affluent
extremely disadvantaged
extremely affluent

36. Absolute Index Scores 2006

37. Absolute Index Scores 2011

38. Comparison of Absolute Deprivation Scores, 1991 and 2006
Shows the massive increase in disadvantage in wake of the recession after the 2006 Census, affecting literally every part of the country.

39. Relative Index Scores 2006

40. Relative Index Scores 2011

41. Comparison of Relative Deprivation Scores, 1991 and 2006
The pattern between affluence and disadvantage, whereby affluence is greatest in the urban peripheries and gradually declining towards more rural locations, remains broadly intact.
There is some indication that the reach of the affluent commuter belts has somewhat diminished.
Within the Greater Dublin Area, there is some shift in the location of the most affluent areas. Whereas in 2006 the Western part of the Region scored high in affluence, in 2011 this is again primarily concentrated in Dun Laoghaire / Rathdown.

42. Change in Relative Index Scores 2006-2011