Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook Sept. 11, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 178.4 4.4 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,586 356 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,027 Imports 67 57 40 50 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,937 16,664 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,450 5,525 100 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,600 5,625 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,460 1,480 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,400 2,350 125 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,910 14,980 225 Ending Stocks 1,684 132 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.40 3.60 -0.20 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.6 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.1 51.6 3.1 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,392 4,586 276 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 430 -35 Imports 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,715 5,040 240 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,040 2,060 15 Seed & Residual 122 146 136 1 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,110 20 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,286 4,256 36 Ending Stocks 785 205 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.35 8.90 -0.35 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Advance Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Market Shares Advance sales for 2018 Sales for 2017 crop Source: USDA-FAS

Advance Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Production Source: EIA

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures 4.01 3.72 Source: CME Group, 9/10/2018

Current Soybean Futures 8.88 8.40 Source: CME Group, 9/10/2018

2018/19 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs

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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/