Economics of Crop Production Ag Credit School Ames, Iowa June 1, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Iowa Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

Iowa Farms and Farmland Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

Productivity Source: USDA-ERS

Change in Input Structure Source: USDA-ERS

Iowa Yields Source: USDA-NASS

Iowa Corn Costs Source: AgDM A1-21

Iowa Soybean Costs Source: AgDM A1-21

Iowa Corn Costs Overall 75% increase 88% 26% 88% 46% Source: AgDM A1-21

Iowa Soybean Costs Overall 69% increase 88% 14% 56% 72% Source: AgDM A1-21

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Supply Demand U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 91.9 97.3 95.4 90.6 89.2 Yield (bu./acre) 147.2 123.1 158.1 171.0 166.8 Production (mil. bu.) 12,360 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,630 Beg. Stocks 1,128 989 821 1,232 1,851 Imports 29 160 36 25 Total Supply 13,517 11,904 14,686 15,472 15,506 Feed & Residual 4,557 4,315 5,036 5,250 5,300 Ethanol 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,200 Food, Seed, & Other 1,428 1,397 1,367 1,347 1,360 Exports 1,543 730 1,917 1,825 1,900 Total Use 12,528 11,083 13,454 13,622 13,760 Ending Stocks 1,746 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.65 3.50 Supply Demand Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

Arable Land

Corn Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

Soybean Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

U.S. Meat Production Source: USDA-ERS

GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS

U.S. Crude Oil Prices Source: USDA-ERS

World Corn Markets Source: USDA 20 20

Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/