Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook May 17, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.2 Yield (bu./acre) 171.0 168.4 174.6 176.6 174.0 Production (mil. bu.) 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,040 Beg. Stocks 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,182 Imports 32 67 57 50 Total Supply 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,947 16,272 Feed & Residual 5,280 5,120 5,472 5,500 5,375 Ethanol 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,575 5,625 Food, Seed, & Other 1,401 1,422 1,451 1,465 1,490 Exports 1,867 1,898 2,225 2,100 Total Use 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,765 14,590 Ending Stocks 1,682 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.70 3.61 3.36 3.40 3.80 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.0 Yield (bu./acre) 47.5 48.0 52.0 49.1 48.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,392 4,280 Beg. Stocks 92 191 197 302 530 Imports 33 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,718 4,835 Crush 1,873 1,886 1,901 1,990 1,995 Seed & Residual 146 122 139 133 135 Exports 1,842 1,936 2,174 2,065 2,290 Total Use 3,862 3,944 4,213 4,188 4,420 Ending Stocks 415 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 10.10 8.95 9.47 9.35 10.00 Source: USDA -WAOB 3 3
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5
Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 6 6
Projected Corn Acres Top: 2018 Acreage Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 7 7
Corn Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS 8 8
Projected Soybean Acreage Top: 2018 Acreage Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 9 9
Soybean Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS 10 10
Acreage Shifts Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 11 11
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14
Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Ethanol Production Source: EIA
Ethanol Exports Source: EIA
Current Corn Futures 4.17 4.16 Source: CME Group, 5/16/2018
Current Soybean Futures 9.86 9.60 Source: CME Group, 5/16/2018
2017/18 Crop Margins
2018/19 Crop Margins
Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs
Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs
Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/