Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook Feb. 13, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Meal Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

Arable land

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 92.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 176.5 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 14,930 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,735 Imports 67 57 36 40 50 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,600 16,715 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,304 5,375 5,575 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,700 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,451 1,465 1,490 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,438 2,450 2,425 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,865 15,190 Ending Stocks 1,525 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.60 3.90 Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for 2019 15 15

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 82.5 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 51.6 50.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,412 4,544 4,090 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 910 Imports 24 22 20 25 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,735 5,002 5,025 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,090 2,075 Seed & Residual 122 146 113 127 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,875 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,297 4,092 4,277 Ending Stocks 748 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.60 8.75 Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for 2019 16 16

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 17 17

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 18 18

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 20 20

Current Corn Futures 3.99 3.63 Source: CME Group, 2/12/2019

Current Soybean Futures 9.48 8.77 Source: CME Group, 2/12/2019

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/