2013/14 Crop Market Outlook 27th Annual Tri-State Agricultural Lenders Seminar Dubuque, IA Oct. 30, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.4 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 155.3 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,843 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 824 Imports 8 28 29 162 25 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,931 14,593 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,546 4,475 5,100 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,665 4,900 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,395 1,450 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 735 1,225 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,270 12,675 Ending Stocks 2,018 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.90 4.80 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 41.2 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,149 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 141 Imports 15 14 16 40 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,243 3,305 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,690 1,655 Seed & Residual 110 130 88 97 115 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,315 1,370 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,102 3,140 Ending Stocks 166 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Early Reports on Corn Yields Source: AgWeb.com

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Early Reports on Soybean Yields Source: AgWeb.com

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

Current Corn Futures 4.50 4.37 4.03 Source: CME Group, 10/29/2013

Current Soybean Futures 12.06 11.00 10.88 Source: CME Group, 10/29/2013

New Crop Prices

Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns A lot of production uncertainty for harvest time Corn demand rebounding? Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (10/29/13) Corn $6.90 $4.80 $4.03 Soybeans $14.40 $12.50 $12.06

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/