1. Grain Marketing & Risk Management Update
29th Annual Tri-State Agricultural Lenders Seminar
Dubuque, Iowa
Oct. 28, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.4
-0.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.0
0.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,555
-30
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731 -1
Imports
160 36 32 30
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,316
-31
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,034
5,317
5,275
Ethanol
4,641
5,134
5,207
5,250
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,380
Exports
730
1,917
1,864
1,850
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,755
Ending Stocks
1,561
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.80
0.05
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 Δ
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
83.2
-1.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
47.2
0.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,888
-47
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
-19
Imports 41 72 33 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,109
-66
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,875
1,880 10
Seed & Residual
105 97
143
130
Exports
1,317
1,647
1,843
1,675
-50
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,685
-40
Ending Stocks
425
-25
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
9.15
0.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Corn Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Soybean Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soybean Yield Estimate
Source: USDA-NASS

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

18. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Current Corn Futures
3.82
3.60
Source: CME Group, 10/23/2015

21. Current Soybean Futures
8.54
8.49
Source: CME Group, 10/23/2015

22. 2015/16 Crop Margins

23. 2016/17 Crop Margins

24. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

25. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

26. PLC pays, ARC does not
Neither pay
Both pay
ARC pays, PLC does not

27. Thoughts for 2016 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Lots of supply, no matter where we look
Exports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows
Negative margins for crops
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(10/23/15)
2016/17
Corn
$3.70
$3.80
$3.60
$3.82
Soybeans
$10.10
$9.15
$8.49
$8.54

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: