Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 2015 Crop Market Outlook June 2, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 91.9 97.3 95.4 90.6 89.2 Yield (bu./acre) 147.2 123.1 158.1 171.0 166.8 Production (mil. bu.) 12,360 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,630 Beg. Stocks 1,128 989 821 1,232 1,851 Imports 29 160 36 25 Total Supply 13,517 11,904 14,686 15,472 15,506 Feed & Residual 4,557 4,315 5,036 5,250 5,300 Ethanol 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,200 Food, Seed, & Other 1,428 1,397 1,367 1,347 1,360 Exports 1,543 730 1,917 1,825 1,900 Total Use 12,528 11,083 13,454 13,622 13,760 Ending Stocks 1,746 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.65 3.50 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.0 77.2 76.8 83.7 84.6 Yield (bu./acre) 41.9 40.0 44.0 47.8 46.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,094 3,042 3,358 3,969 3,850 Beg. Stocks 215 169 141 92 350 Imports 16 41 72 30 Total Supply 3,325 3,252 3,570 4,091 4,230 Crush 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,805 1,825 Seed & Residual 88 105 97 136 129 Exports 1,365 1,317 1,647 1,800 1,775 Total Use 3,155 3,111 3,478 3,741 3,729 Ending Stocks 500 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 12.50 14.40 13.00 10.05 9.00 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Corn Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS

Corn Emergence Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Emergence Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures 3.64 3.52 Source: CME Group, 6/1/2015

Current Soybean Futures 9.96 8.69 Source: CME Group, 6/1/2015

2014/15 Crop Margins

2015/16 Crop Margins

Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Demand has been weakening Outside markets have not helped Watching South American crop and U.S. planting progress Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 Futures (6/1/15) Corn $3.65 $3.50 $3.64 $3.52 Soybeans $10.05 $9.00 $9.96 $8.69

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/