Ag Markets, Trade, & Outlook Oct. 2, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Source: USDA-FAS

Source: USDA-FAS

Source: USDA-FAS

Source: USDA-FAS

Value of Ag Trade Source: USDA-FAS

U.S. Ag Exports Source: USDA-FAS

Why do U.S. farmers need export markets? That’s where the customers are That’s where the economic growth is That’s where the consumption growth is We produce surpluses We only eat high on the hog Exports are crucial to farm income

96% of the world’s population lives outside the US Source: CIA World Factbook

Population growth 2017 to 2050 Source: World Bank

Economic growth rates Source: CIA World Factbook

Top ten US ag export markets, 2016 Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations

Population vs. arable land Share of global Share of global population arable land China 19% 5% India 17% 10% US 4% 13%

Arable Land

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 181.3 3.9 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,827 241 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 138 Imports 67 57 40 50 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,937 17,017 453 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,312 5,575 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,600 5,650 25 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,460 1,480 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,425 2,400 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,897 15,105 125 Ending Stocks 1,912 228 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.40 3.50 -0.10 Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for Stocks 17 17

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.6 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 52.8 1.2 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,411 4,693 107 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 8 Imports 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,735 5,156 116 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,070 10 Seed & Residual 122 146 112 137 1 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,130 2,060 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,289 4,268 12 Ending Stocks 888 103 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.35 8.60 -0.30 Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for Stocks 18 18

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 20 20

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 21 21

USDA Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS 22 22

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 23 23

USDA Objective Soy Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS 24 24

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 25 25

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Production Source: EIA

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures 4.01 3.68 Source: CME Group, 10/1/2018

Current Soybean Futures 9.12 8.52 Source: CME Group, 10/1/2018

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs Based on USDA prices

Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs Based on USDA prices

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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/